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cover of episode Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic on Monetary Policy During Extreme Uncertainty

Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic on Monetary Policy During Extreme Uncertainty

2025/5/16
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People
J
Joe Weisenthal
通过播客和新闻工作,提供深入的经济分析和市场趋势解读。
R
Raphael Bostic
T
Traci Alloway
Topics
Joe Weisenthal: 我认为现在采访美联储官员非常有趣,因为当前经济形势复杂,政策变化迅速。上周的联邦公开市场委员会会议决定维持利率不变,但周末中美之间达成了至少90天的休战协议,这使得经济前景更加难以预测。我认为美联储正处于一个非常微妙的境地,既要应对经济放缓的迹象,又要考虑关税可能带来的通胀压力,这使得理解和预测经济走向变得异常困难。 Raphael Bostic: 我认为目前经济面临巨大的不确定性,这导致企业和家庭不愿做出重大决策,从而影响了经济活力。虽然上周末中美达成的休战协议对我的经济展望产生了一点积极影响,但整体而言,我仍然认为经济的韧性有所下降。这意味着经济增长可能会低于年初的预期,但并不一定意味着经济衰退。我正在密切关注事态发展,以便更好地了解经济的走向,并为制定合适的货币政策提供依据。我特别关注消费者和企业的反应,以及他们如何应对不断变化的环境。 Traci Alloway: 我认为在当前关税制度下,工资增长与更高的商品价格同时出现的可能性低于疫情后。如果是这样,如果人们不担心自我加强的通胀螺旋,美联储是否有更大的空间来忽略更高的商品价格?

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Shownotes Transcript

This is obviously an extraordinarily difficult time to make economic forecasts. Nobody really knows how tariffs will affect the US economy. And beyond that, nobody knows what the ultimate state of tariffs will be, or if they'll ever settle into a predictable rate. So how do you conduct monetary policy in this environment? On this episode, recorded at the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta, we spoke with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. He walked us through how he's thinking about the dual mandate right now, and why he has significantly dialed back his expectations for aggressive rate cuts since the start of 2025.

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