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cover of episode Brad Setser on the Big Surge in the Taiwanese Dollar

Brad Setser on the Big Surge in the Taiwanese Dollar

2025/5/6
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B
Brad Setser
专注于全球化、贸易和税收政策的经济学家和政策分析师。
J
Jill Wiesenthal
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Brad Setser: 我长期关注台湾的金融市场,特别是台湾保险公司对美元资产的投资。台湾拥有全球最大的经常账户盈余之一,这笔巨款需要被用来积累外汇资产。过去,这主要由中央银行和保险公司完成,保险公司持有大量美元债券。台湾中央银行曾秘密为保险公司提供对冲,直到2020年才公开。台湾的经常账户盈余一部分被用于台积电在日本和美国的海外直接投资。 台湾保险公司之所以未充分对冲美元资产,是因为对冲成本高昂,且亚洲货币普遍疲软。美元走弱是因为亚洲货币此前普遍疲软,以及中国未对美国关税做出回应。 台湾中央银行干预汇率升值没有内在限制,但其干预能力受到外汇储备和美国压力的限制。台湾中央银行可能出于风险管理和美国压力的考虑,对台币升值保持克制。台湾持续的巨额经常账户盈余导致其过度支付美元债券,应该采取更积极的财政政策。台湾中央银行应设立对冲计划,以降低保险业的金融稳定风险。台币升值是否对特朗普有利,取决于台湾是否允许其汇率升值到中央银行历史上曾干预的水平以上。台币升值将影响美国国债、公司债券和利率市场。台湾中央银行可以利用美元回购协议来满足保险公司的对冲需求。 Jill Wiesenthal: 许多投资者和媒体机构对国际金融流动缺乏了解,应该关注国际金融流动对市场的影响。

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There are several markets that have really settled down since the tumult of early April. But strange, unusual things are still popping up, particularly in the currency space. Over the last few days, we've seen a huge surge in the Taiwan dollar. This is important, in part, because Taiwanese life insurance companies are major buyers of US dollar assets, such as corporate bonds. Suddenly, they're looking at a major hit to the value of these holdings, with losses that are only partially hedged. So why the sudden move, and what does it mean? On this episode, we speak with Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We first talked to Brad about exactly this topic back in 2019, when the story was more of an intellectual curiosity rather than a market-moving development. We discuss the implications, and what it means in the context of the Trump administration's trade strategy.

More:Why Taiwanese Life Insurers Are The Great ‘Whodunit' Of The Financial World)Taiwan’s Markets Jolted as Currency Surges Most Since 1980s)

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