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cover of episode Henry Blodget on AI, Dot-Coms, and What's Changed In 25 Years

Henry Blodget on AI, Dot-Coms, and What's Changed In 25 Years

2025/5/5
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Henry Blodget: 我认为AI领域的繁荣与90年代末的互联网热潮有很多相似之处，都经历了投资热潮、快速增长和最终的崩盘。目前整体科技行业并非处于泡沫之中，但AI领域的私募市场存在泡沫迹象。OpenAI的高估值虽然看似疯狂，但基于其高速增长和投资者持有优先股的风险保护机制，有一定合理性。AI领域最终可能只有一家公司胜出，类似于90年代互联网行业的格局。AI领域的叙事与90年代互联网热潮类似，都强调技术革命性，但实际情况可能与预期不同。AI将重塑经济，企业将根据对AI的应用程度分为三类。成功的企业家善于讲故事，并能将员工和投资者团结起来。市场的泡沫特征之一是，每年都会出现大量关于泡沫破裂的预测，但市场往往会继续上涨。在泡沫时期，投资者分为两类：一类认为旧的估值指标不再适用，另一类则认为存在泡沫但会继续持有至顶部。1999年大量公司上市，公司通过融资进行大量支出，最终导致泡沫破裂。AI领域可能存在类似于DeepMind的时刻，即技术突破降低了对高资本支出的依赖，从而导致市场崩盘。科技行业的资金循环和缺乏透明度使得风险难以评估。英伟达的竞争优势可能难以持续，DeepMind的开源技术对英伟达构成威胁。中美贸易战对企业规划造成巨大困难，并且中美经济脱钩并非最佳策略。我对中美经济高度融合表示赞赏，认为将中国视为敌人并非最佳策略。中美在AI领域的竞争并非零和博弈，合作共赢才是最佳策略。与90年代相比，现在的分析师研究报告更加规范，但IPO市场活力不足。 Joe Weisenthal: (提问和引导讨论) Tracy Alloway: (提问和引导讨论)

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What does history say about how big the AI boom can get, and who will ultimately win out? When does a boom turn into a bubble that turns into a bust? On this episode of the podcast, we speak to Henry Blodget, the founder of Business Insider (and Joe's old boss there). In the late '90s, Henry was one of the most well-known Wall Street analysts covering internet stocks, before the crash and recriminations, which ended up in his lifetime ban from the industry. His new project is a publication called Regenerator, which will again focus on business and tech. We discuss the state of the AI boom, and what lessons we can draw from the dot-com era. We also talk politics, what's changed on Wall Street over the last 25 years or so, and a bit on the state of the media business.

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