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cover of episode How China Might Actually Handle a US Trade War

How China Might Actually Handle a US Trade War

2025/5/8
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Odd Lots

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People
A
Arthur Kroeber
J
Joe Wiesenthal
T
Traci Alloway
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Traci Alloway: 我观察到世界对中国的经济看法存在矛盾,它既是竞争对手,又似乎面临灾难。 Joe Wiesenthal: 我同意,中国经济一直被认为即将面临灾难,但它持续增长,这本身就是一个矛盾。 Arthur Kroeber: 中国对美国的报复性关税是基于几个因素:长期以来美国对华采取的贸易限制措施,以及中国对自身承受贸易战冲击能力的信心,以及国内政治的需要。中国官员经常谈到中国悠久的历史,这反映了中国精英阶层长期以来致力于重建国家,并与西方平等竞争的愿望。虽然中国政府也有短期行为,但其长期规划能力也使他们能够制定并实施持续较长时间的战略计划。与之前的贸易紧张关系不同,中国已经有了应对关税的经验,并且中国公司正在积极地将生产转移到海外,这并非完全由政府主导,而是公司自身行为的体现。美国政府试图通过对所有贸易伙伴施压来限制中国,但这并不现实,因为许多国家与中国的贸易关系比与美国更密切。对某些商品的豁免并非表明美中之间存在达成协议的可能性,而是特朗普试图保护某些重要产业的表现。关税已经对中国经济造成一定损害,但不足以迫使中国让步。中国经济需要向消费领域倾斜,但这并非中国政府的主要目标。中国城市基础设施建设发展迅速,但农村地区仍相对落后。中国医疗和养老体系在不断改善,但仍有提升空间。中国应对贸易战的手段包括报复性关税、出口管制和国内经济刺激措施,但这些措施的有效性有限。习近平上任前后,中国政策的连续性和变化性并存,其基本目标未变,但执行效率有所提高。美中贸易战的缓和途径在于特朗普政府认识到自身处境并采取行动,但特朗普的动机可能并非基于具体的政策目标。中国希望能够在美国进行更多投资,这可能是达成具有实质意义协议的关键。将美中关系描述为战争状态既不实用,也可能很危险,寻求一种共存状态更为可取。

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Shownotes Transcript

By now, everyone recognizes that the US and China are in the middle of a trade war, with the Trump administration having imposed tariffs of as much as 125% on Chinese goods. For an export-focused economy like China's, that's a big deal. At the same time, China is pretty much the only major country that's chosen to retaliate against the US with its own set of fresh trade restrictions. So why did it decide to reciprocate? And what's its negotiating position as the US and China head into initial talks? Can the Chinese economy -- and its policymakers -- withstand the pain of a trade war? We speak to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics and a long-time China watcher, about how China might actually respond to the new tariff regime. Read more:Xi Fortifies China’s Economy Before First Talks on Trade With US)What Years of Practice Tariffs Have Done) Only http://Bloomberg.com) subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots)

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