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cover of episode Krishna Memani on Wall Street's Very Expensive "Free Lunch"

Krishna Memani on Wall Street's Very Expensive "Free Lunch"

2025/5/30
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Krishna Memani: 作为一名长期投资者，我一直坚信多元化是投资界最大的免费午餐。然而，过去几十年来的投资结果与理论预期相去甚远，这促使我开始反思多元化策略的有效性。尽管我个人坚持多元化的投资组合，但我也承认它并没有带来预期的回报。我认为，我们应该深入研究多元化失效的原因，并寻找其他降低投资组合风险的方法，而不是盲目地将多元化视为一种信仰。美国科技股的崛起、全球资金流动的变化以及基准指数的局限性都是影响多元化效果的关键因素。我呼吁金融投资领域的研究者们重新审视多元化理论，并探索更有效的投资策略，以适应不断变化的市场环境。 Krishna Memani: 我认为，多元化投资策略的核心目标是通过分散特定风险来降低整体风险，同时不牺牲过多的回报。然而，在实践中，国际股市的表现往往不如美国股市，这使得多元化策略的效果大打折扣。我曾经是全球化投资理念的倡导者，并据此构建了自己的投资组合，但结果并不尽如人意。我认为，我们应该重新评估在新兴市场添加投资是否真的能为投资组合增加价值，或者仅仅投资于发达市场是否也能达到类似的效果。此外，资金流动对于决定股市的状态至关重要。国内资金流动相对于国际资金流动对于股市的影响更为显著。以印度为例，国内投资者的崛起推动了印度股市的发展，使其成为一个由国内需求驱动的市场。 Krishna Memani: 我认为，基准指数在投资管理中扮演着重要的角色，但我们也应该认识到基准指数的局限性。基准指数的多元化程度存在问题，这可能会导致投资者被迫购买表现不佳的资产。此外，职业风险也是影响投资决策的重要因素。积极的管理者需要在跑赢同行和跑赢基准之间取得平衡，这可能会导致他们被迫进入拥挤的交易。为了应对职业风险，投资组合经理应该专注于他们擅长的领域，并避免盲目追逐市场热点。总而言之，我认为多元化仍然是一种重要的投资策略，但我们需要对其进行重新评估，并寻找其他降低投资组合风险的方法。我们应该在估值背景下进行思考，以便在机会来临时，以正确的方式进行思考，而不是仅仅坚持过去 30 年的信条。

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We're told over and over again that the one "free lunch" in investing is diversification, and that you can improve your returns over time simply by investing in a wider range of assets. This is textbook modern finance. And yet over the past several years this hasn't been the case. An investor would have done great (with the occasional hiccups) just by investing in US stocks. What's more, even within US stocks, investors should have concentrated on big tech stocks. Going long US tech has been identified as the most crowded trade by investors for years, and yet most of the time it has outperformed almost everything else. So what are the lessons from this story? And is now the moment where international diversification is going to work? On this episode, we speak with veteran portfolio manager Krishna Memani, who is now the chief investment officer at Lafayette College. Previously, he was the CIO at OppenheimerFunds, which got bought by Invesco. We talk about portfolio theory, the tragedy of the prudent international investor over recent decades, and whether that realized return we've seen across a range of asset classes should prompt a fundamental rethink of finance theory.

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