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cover of episode Lots More on How TikTok Options Traders Got Quiet

Lots More on How TikTok Options Traders Got Quiet

2025/4/26
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Odd Lots
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Ben Eifert
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Ben Eifert: 近期市场波动与以往不同，并非简单的技术性调整，而是存在真正的基本面问题。美国政府的经济政策混乱且朝令夕改，损害了市场信心，导致市场波动剧烈。与2019年和2020年相比，这次市场波动中，对冲基金的亏损并没有那么严重，因为市场中缺乏过度拥挤的做空波动性和尾部风险的仓位。 当前市场环境对长期持有型投资者来说极具挑战性，市场波动剧烈，受各种因素影响，例如Scott Besson和Lutnick的言论以及特朗普的推文等。试图根据实时新闻和推文进行交易并获利非常困难，成功率很低。许多交易策略都基于均值回归的假设，即市场最终会回到正常状态，但当前市场环境可能正在挑战这一假设。“解放日”事件改变了市场对特朗普政府政策解读的方式，市场不得不更认真地对待其言论和政策，因为其言行与预期存在巨大差异。市场对特朗普的言论和政策的解读方式发生了变化，不得不更认真地考虑其言论的潜在影响。 VIX指数是衡量市场隐含波动率的指标，它与实际波动率之间存在差异，近期实际波动率高于VIX指数。VIX指数与实际波动率之间的差距反映了市场参与者对未来波动率的预期，他们押注未来波动率将低于近期水平。 如果认为特朗普的执政风格会导致高波动性市场，那么一些波动性相关的资产可能被低估，存在投资机会。衍生品交易中存在多种策略，有些策略基于市场错配获利，并不依赖于隐含波动率的均值回归；而有些策略则依赖于均值回归，需要对市场错配的成因进行深入分析。 近期市场中存在大量抛售波动性资产的行为，这可以从VIX期货价格中看出。市场中存在大量来自对冲基金、散户投资者等参与者的抛售波动性资产的行为。 Tracy: (补充说明和问题) Joe: (补充说明和问题)

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Chapters
This chapter analyzes the market volatility since April 2nd, focusing on its effects on various market participants, including hedge funds, long-term investors, and volatility traders. It highlights the impact on market neutral factors and the relatively orderly nature of the sell-off compared to previous crises.
  • Significant moves in market neutral factor relationships
  • De-risking in hedge funds due to high leverage
  • Lack of crowded short volatility positions compared to 2019-2020
  • Orderly sell-off followed by rallies based on news and tweets
  • Challenges for long-term buy-and-hold investors in a volatile market
  • Volatility traders' contrasting view on market conditions

Shownotes Transcript

Over the last few years, retail traders have gotten into options in a major way. Selling puts, buying calls, trading volatility — what used to be the domain of niche experts engaged in practical hedging has exploded into the public sphere. And there was a lot of easy money during a time when every dip was bought, and stocks mostly just went up. But what have we seen in recent weeks, with the extraordinary trading since April 2? On this episode we bring back one of our favorite guests, Benn Eifert of QVR Advisors. He describes what's been going on in the markets, and why a lot of social media "volfluencers" have suddenly gotten very quiet.Mentioned on this episode:Matt Levine on MicroStrategy’s Infinite Money Machine)

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