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cover of episode Michael Cembalest on Why AI Is the Stock Market Bet of the Century

Michael Cembalest on Why AI Is the Stock Market Bet of the Century

2025/5/29
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Michael Cembalest
摩根大通高级分析师，专注于经济和投资趋势分析。
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Michael Cembalest: 我认为现在无法过分强调人工智能对市场估值的重要性。标普500指数的利润率演变中，MAG7公司与其他公司之间的差异巨大，就像东西柏林一样。过去十年，MAG7的盈利增长接近20%，而标普493的盈利增长为6%，几乎是两个完全不同的公司群体。这些公司盈利能力极强，资本支出和研发投入占收入的25%到40%，这是前所未有的。超大规模企业在人工智能基础设施上的巨额投入，虽然短期内会压低自由现金流利润率，但最终会获得回报，我认为这是本世纪最大的赌注。在股市历史上，最大的公司以如此巨大的盈利增长速度超越其他公司是非常罕见的，你找不到类似的时期。即使在私募股权领域，通常较小和中型的基金在长期内也会优于大型基金，存在负面的规模偏见。虽然Epic Games赢得了一些诉讼，司法部也在以不同的理由对亚马逊、苹果和谷歌进行调查，但并没有对反垄断法进行根本性的重新思考。

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Chapters
This chapter explores the dominance of AI in market valuations, particularly focusing on the MAG7 (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Tesla, Meta, and Nvidia) and their unprecedented capital spending and R&D investments in AI infrastructure. The discussion also touches on the implications of this spending and its potential for future profits.
  • Unprecedented capital spending and R&D by MAG7 in AI (25%-40% of revenue)
  • Earnings growth disparity between MAG7 and the rest of the S&P 500
  • Digitization of the economy as a driver of MAG7 growth
  • Concerns about antitrust implications and product tying by big tech

Shownotes Transcript

Michael Cembalest has been an investment analyst for almost 40 years and his research notes have drawn a cult following on Wall Street. He's known for going super deep into a wide range of topics, like energy and healthcare. And lately he's been writing a lot about AI, with a particular interest in figuring out whether all the investment in data centers and compute will translate into actual profits. On this episode, we talk to the chair of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset Management about why AI is the market "bet of the century," why the dominance of US big tech can't be overstated, and why he's pessimistic about the outlook for small modular nuclear reactors.Odd Lots Live is returning to New York City on June 26. Get your tickets here!)

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