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cover of episode Perry Mehrling on Trump's Echoes of the Nixon Shock

Perry Mehrling on Trump's Echoes of the Nixon Shock

2025/5/14
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Joe Wiesenthal
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Perry Mehrling
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Traci Alloway
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Traci Alloway: 我注意到“过分的特权”这个词越来越频繁地出现,尤其是在讨论美国财政政策和国际金融体系时。这个概念最早可以追溯到1960年代,指的是由于全球金融体系以美元为中心,美国享有一种特殊的地位,这使得其他国家在某种程度上补贴了美国的生活方式。因此,美国在支出方面受到的约束似乎比其他国家要少。然而,对于“过分的特权”的具体含义,以及它对美国经济的长期影响,仍然存在许多模糊不清的定义和争议。 Joe Wiesenthal: 过去我们经常在讨论巨额预算赤字时听到“过分的特权”这个词。现在,由于美国政策的不稳定性,这个词再次浮出水面,引发了人们对这种特权是否可持续的疑问。我对这个词的具体含义一直不太清楚,但很明显,当前美国的政策波动性使得这个问题再次变得重要。此外,人们对美元的定义也存在许多模糊之处,例如美元的强势、美元在交易中的份额、美元在储备中的份额等等,这些都需要更清晰的界定。 Perry Mehrling: “过分的特权”这个概念最初来自欧洲,特别是法国,他们认为这对美国有利,对他们自己不利。但美国国内也开始有人认为这是一种负担,成为国际储备货币阻碍了美国的制造业发展,并高估了汇率,这种理论被政治力量所接受。1971年8月15日,尼克松让美元脱离金本位,并将关税提高了10%,这是为了迫使盟国重新评估其货币价值。当前的事件与过去的情况非常相似,特朗普正在重演尼克松的策略,但规模扩大了十倍,因为他实施了更多的关税。与过去相比,现在的世界更加全球化,因此冲击也更加全面。银行家们不会让美元体系崩溃,但这个过程会很痛苦,美元体系不会消失。

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There's been a lot of talk recently about parallels between Donald Trump's economic policies and the Nixon Shock of the early 1970s. That was when the former president took the dollar off the gold standard, introduced hefty tariffs, and pressured the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. The moves sparked stagflation in the US and shook up the global monetary order. Now, given Trump's determination to rebalance the US relationship with global trading partners and his criticism of the Fed, could history repeat itself? On this episode, we speak with Perry Mehrling, professor of international political economy at Boston University's Pardee School of Global Studies, and the author of the book Money and Empire. We talk to him about similarities and differences between the Trump administration's current economic policies and the Nixon Shock, as well as why he thinks dollar dominance won't be dislodged anytime soon.Read more:Dollar Poised for Worst First 100 Days of Presidency Since Nixon)The Problem With the Fed Isn’t Independence, It’s Accountability)

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