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cover of episode Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying

Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying

2025/4/30
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Odd Lots
AI Deep Dive Transcript
People
B
Bill Beach
J
Joe Weisenthal
通过播客和新闻工作，提供深入的经济分析和市场趋势解读。
T
Tracy Allaway
Topics
Joe Weisenthal: 我对我们如何理所当然地看待屏幕上的数字感到着迷，我们很少关注这些数字背后的数据收集和处理过程。 Tracy Allaway: 经济数据的收集过程包含数据收集和主观调整两个部分，例如CPI的权重因城市而异，冰箱的WiFi功能也会影响价格。 Bill Beach: 就业报告的数据来源于两个调查，一个是针对企业的就业人数调查，另一个是针对家庭的失业率调查。企业参与调查需要耗费一定时间和资源，家庭调查问卷更复杂，需要进行电话回访。家庭调查的成本在2019年到2023年期间显著增加，主要原因是通货膨胀导致的工资上涨。当前人口调查（CPS）等调查正面临衰退，需要进行现代化改造。家庭调查成本上升的主要原因是调查员工资上涨。由于成本上升和回复率下降，家庭调查样本量需要减少，导致数据细节缺失。数据修正的增加与回复率下降有关。调查回复率下降的原因之一是新调查参与者的招募越来越困难。提高回复率的唯一方法是采用基于互联网平台的调查方式，并整合私有数据。现代化统计数据收集系统需要国会拨款和支持。国会关注并解决问题，例如公路系统。重建统计系统需要一个大胆的计划，并获得国会的资金支持。支付报酬或提供奖励对提高回复率效果有限。统计系统需要资金支持创新，而不是维持现状。可以使用互联网数据补充调查数据，但并非所有数据都能用这种方式获取。互联网数据并非总是能提供清晰明确的信号，无法完全替代调查数据。通过解释数据修正过程来增强公众对数据的信任。BLS对调查员进行培训，以识别和评估产品质量变化。调查员会仔细检查产品细节，例如薯片数量，以准确评估价格变化。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Gathering official economic data is a huge process in the best of times. But a bunch of different things have now combined to make that process even harder. People aren't responding to surveys like they used to. Survey responses have also become a lot more divided along political lines. And at the same time, the Trump administration wants to cut back on government spending, and the worry is that fewer official resources will make tracking the US economy even harder for statistical departments that were already stretched. Bill Beach was commissioner of labor statistics and head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics during Trump's first presidency and also during President Biden's. On this episode, we talk to him about the importance of official data and why the rails for economic data are deteriorating so quickly.

Read more:Houston, We Have a Data Problem)The US Economy Is Fracturing Too)

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