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cover of episode The Greatest Ever Panel on the World's Most Important Market

The Greatest Ever Panel on the World's Most Important Market

2025/7/2
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Odd Lots

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Ira Jersey
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Josh Younger
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Nellie Liang
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Ira Jersey: 我认为目前不必过分担心谁来购买美国国债。虽然市场总会找到买家,但关键在于购买的价格。近期美国经济放缓,两年期国债收益率有所下降,但长期国债收益率变化不大,这表明投资者对于以一定溢价购买长期国债有所担忧。因此,国债最终会被购买,但问题是以什么价格成交。 Nellie Liang: 我认为现在的国债市场与过去相比,价格敏感型买家增多,例如零售投资者和国内买家,而过去更多的是央行和主权财富基金等稳定的投资者。这种投资者结构的变化导致市场波动性更大。非银行金融机构(如对冲基金和私人基金)出于流动性风险管理的目的使用国债,一旦市场出现波动,他们会倾向于抛售国债以管理自身头寸,从而加剧市场波动。这种投资者基础的变化会影响财政部发行债务的方式,以及对不同期限债券的考虑。 Josh Younger: 我认为重要的是要分析买家购买国债的原因,例如对冲负债或进行长期投资。寿险公司需要购买类似期限的国债来对冲其长期负债,而银行也需要长期资产来对冲长期负债,如存款。对冲基金的投资期限较短,主要根据价格信号进行交易,而国债的相对价值交易实际上是对市场寻找最低成本买家的反应。如果长期负债对冲者不足,就需要寻找其他人来购买国债,而杠杆资金在其中起到了信号作用。

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Okay, that's quite a title but we think it's justified! In this special episode — recorded live onstage at our June 26 event in New York City — we bring together some of the best thinkers we know when it comes to the US Treasury market. US government bonds form the backbone of global financial markets, and are the "risk-free" rate to which all other rates are benchmarked. But recently, there's been concern about who will buy all those bonds as the US deficit explodes higher. Meanwhile, there have been long-running concerns about volatility and liquidity in the market. We speak with Nellie Liang, senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings Institution and former undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance, Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Josh Younger, a lecturer at Columbia University and repeated Odd Lots guest.Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots)

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