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cover of episode The Last Time Investors Really Got Excited For Tech Infrastructure

The Last Time Investors Really Got Excited For Tech Infrastructure

2025/3/28
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People
B
Blair Levin
J
Joe Weisenthal
通过播客和新闻工作，提供深入的经济分析和市场趋势解读。
T
Tracy Alloway
知名金融播客主播和分析师，专注于市场趋势和经济分析。
Topics
Joe Weisenthal: 我对任何关于互联网泡沫或电信泡沫的讨论都感兴趣，尤其是在90年代末期，那是我成长的时期。 Tracy Alloway: 人们对90年代末期的电信泡沫很感兴趣，因为它与当前对AI基础设施建设的热情存在相似之处，都涉及到昂贵的资本支出。 Blair Levin: 1913年，政府允许AT&T维持其垄断地位，直到其被拆分。90年代初，人们努力改变电信行业的监管模式，希望通过数字化来促进竞争。1996年《电信法案》的核心思想是通过数字化来打破垄断，促进竞争，赋予了FCC更多权力，例如无线号码可携性，接入费的改革也促进了竞争。取消对拨号上网的接入费，促进了互联网的发展。政府通过创造竞争环境而非直接打破垄断来促进电信业的发展。电信泡沫期间，大量的债务融资是其一个显著特征。投资者对电信行业的投资热情源于对数字网络未来前景的看好，当时市场对数字流量增长速度的预测过于乐观。电信网络基础设施建设与互联网应用公司有不同的命运，尽管经历了泡沫破裂，但电信网络基础设施仍然具有长期价值。时代华纳收购AOL的交易是电信泡沫开始破裂的标志性事件，AOL在宽带时代逐渐过时，这预示着电信泡沫的破裂。投资者行为的变化，从追求快速增长转向关注盈利能力，是泡沫破裂的另一个因素。“先普及，后盈利”的模式在广告模式下有效，但在其他模式下则未必。电信网络公司在泡沫破裂后仍然存在，但其商业模式发生了变化。CLEC（竞争性本地交换运营商）是为长途公司建设网络的“建筑公司”，《电信法案》旨在创造一个拥有三家竞争对手的电信市场，无线通信的崛起改变了电信市场的竞争格局，AT&T与SBC的合并标志着CLEC模式的终结。国会设定的截止日期反而促进了工作的效率。基础设施始终具有价值，但最终获利者往往是后来的投资者。云计算公司将在AI时代占据主导地位。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter sets the stage by comparing the current excitement around AI infrastructure to the telecom bubble of the late 1990s. It introduces Blair Levin, an expert who witnessed both eras, and previews his insights into the similarities and differences.
  • Comparison of current AI infrastructure boom with the late 1990s telecom bubble
  • Introduction of Blair Levin, key figure in telecom deregulation and Wall Street veteran

Shownotes Transcript

One of the biggest questions hanging over the market right now is whether or not the seemingly unlimited appetite for more AI data center spending is slowing down or not. This type of tech infrastructure has been a massive sectoral winner over the last few years. But of course, this isn't the first time investors have gotten excited about this type of trade. The late 1990s and early 2000s are often remembered as being the time of a "tech bubble" or "dot-com bubble," but one specific aspect was the buildout in broadband infrastructure, or what became known as the telecom bubble. So what was that all about? Why were investors so optimistic? And how did it end? At our recent live episode in Washington DC, we spoke with Blair Levin, policy adviser to New Street Research. He was the chief of staff at the FCC during the telecom deregulation of the 1990s, and in the early 2000s went to work on Wall Street. He tells us about differences and similarities between then and now, plus the signs of when the ride is coming to an end.Read More: What It Felt Like When Everyone Was Hopeful, Happy, and Rich)

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