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cover of episode The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope

The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope

2025/3/14
logo of podcast Odd Lots

Odd Lots
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
J
Joe Weisenthal
通过播客和新闻工作，提供深入的经济分析和市场趋势解读。
R
Ryan Isakow
T
Traci Alloway
Topics
Traci Alloway: 我认为预测市场更多是娱乐性的，而非具有洞察力。它们提供了一种有趣的新闻过滤器，但并不一定能够提供准确的预测。 Joe Weisenthal: 预测市场的价值在于它们能够反映大众的观点，并且可以通过与市场观点的差异来调整自己的判断。虽然参与者通常是特定人群，但它们仍然能够提供一种社会价值，尤其是在预测政治事件时。 Ryan Isakow: 预测市场的社会价值在于它们是否能够提供更准确的预测。虽然我个人认为它们的社会价值有限，但它们确实能够作为一种信号，表明人们对某些结果的信念。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The episode begins with a discussion on the popularity of prediction markets, highlighting various modern examples and raising questions about their social value.
  • Prediction markets involve betting on various outcomes, from political events to social phenomena.
  • Modern examples include betting on weather, political outcomes, and celebrity relationships.
  • There is debate over whether financial incentives in betting improve prediction accuracy.
  • Prediction markets provide insight into what certain populations are interested in at a given time.

Shownotes Transcript

Prediction markets are everywhere nowadays. You can go online and bet on political outcomes, or the weather, or how long Taylor Swift will stay together with Travis Kelce. But prediction markets have a long history, and one of the earliest involved betting on who would be the next pope. In fact, Renaissance Romans gambled on everything from papal elections to whether a particular noblewoman would give birth to a boy or girl. So why was betting such a big thing in 1500s Italy? How did the papal prediction market actually work? And what can it tell us about prediction markets today? We speak to Ryan Isakow, the author of the No Dumb Ideas) substack.Read More: A Live Experiment in Prediction Markets)Prediction Markets Are a Thing Now)

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