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cover of episode Trump Economic Advisor, Stephen Miran, on Tariffs and Tax Cuts

Trump Economic Advisor, Stephen Miran, on Tariffs and Tax Cuts

2025/6/13
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Odd Lots
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Stephen Miran: 我认为目前的经济数据表现良好。自总统就职以来，通货膨胀一直低于预期，这与许多人的预期相反。就业市场也表现强劲，就业数据连续三个月超出预期。虽然情绪数据有所波动，但它与实际经济活动的相关性已经下降。第一季度GDP略有下降，但剔除波动因素后的潜在增长率接近3%。第二季度GDP预计增长3%以上。总的来说，经济数据中很难找到坏消息。

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This chapter analyzes the current state of the US economy, focusing on inflation, job growth, and the impact of immigration policies on employment. The discussion highlights unexpected positive economic data, despite concerns about sentiment data and the impact of immigration on wages and inflation.
  • Inflation surprised to the downside for four months since the president's inauguration.
  • Job numbers beat expectations for three consecutive months.
  • Unemployment is higher among young people directly competing with illegal immigrants.
  • Large-scale immigration is argued to be inflationary due to pressure on housing and other resources.

Shownotes Transcript

The Trump administration seems to have a lot of big ideas about reshaping America, including its economy. We've seen the unveiling (and delaying) of sweeping tariffs aimed at boosting US manufacturing. The 'Big, Beautiful Bill' is currently working its way through Congress and features a lot of supply-side economic ideas, including an extension of tax cuts. So do all of these things work together to boost growth? What happens if that growth doesn't materialize? What is the administration's ultimate vision for the US economy? And what are they seeing right now in terms of things like inflation and employment? We speak with Stephen Miran, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers at the White House.

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