We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode Why Interest Rates Are Shooting Up All Around the World

Why Interest Rates Are Shooting Up All Around the World

2025/5/22
logo of podcast Odd Lots

Odd Lots

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
J
Joe Weisenthal
通过播客和新闻工作,提供深入的经济分析和市场趋势解读。
S
Stephen Englander
T
Tracey Alloway
Topics
Tracey Alloway: 作为主持人,我认为当前市场虽然表面平静,但实际上在利率和货币方面存在着重要的变动。我们正处于一个关键时刻,各种相互冲突的信号交织在一起,使得维持物价稳定和对抗通胀变得异常复杂,这几乎完全依赖于美联储的行动。 Joe Weisenthal: 我认为美国利率的上升,部分原因在于预算谈判导致赤字扩大,但更深层次的原因是存在无法用国内政策解释的全球性因素。我们不能简单地认为,调整汇率就能解决所有问题,因为这往往忽略了国内经济结构性问题。 Stephen Englander: 作为G10货币策略的全球主管,我认为全球利率上升并非单一因素驱动。美国国债收益率上升会带动全球收益率上升,但日本的情况有其特殊性,与量化紧缩政策的不确定性有关。同时,市场对美国资产的信心减弱,也导致美元走弱和利率上升。我认为,各国需要更多关注国内政策,而非仅仅依赖国际贸易手段来解决经济问题。关税的影响被过度解读,而政策的不确定性才是真正的风险。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

This week the big story in markets is the selloff in bonds. Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries jumped 20 basis points from last Friday’s low, while the 30-year rate is back above 5%. Meanwhile, 30-year Japanese government bonds clocked their highest yield since records began in 1999. And rates on UK gilts, German bunds, and Australian bonds are also rising. To make matters even more unusual, US Treasury yields are going up while the dollar is weakening (something that doesn’t usually happen.) So what’s going on? And how much does this have to with worries over the US fiscal position, the return of inflation, and the outlook for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve? On this episode, we speak with Steven Englander, global head of G-10 FX research at Standard Chartered. We talk about what’s driving the dramatic moves and the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy.Read more:Deglobalization’s Threat to the Bond Market)US Bonds Swing as Dip Buyers Enter After Moody’s-Fueled Selloff)Odd Lots Live is returning to New York City on June 26. Get your tickets here!)

See omnystudio.com/listener) for privacy information.