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cover of episode (BONUS) From WashingtonWise: Balancing Campaign Promises With Economic Realities

(BONUS) From WashingtonWise: Balancing Campaign Promises With Economic Realities

2024/11/15
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On Investing

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People
C
Cathy Jones
具有超过30年金融和商业地产经验的专业人士,专注于投资销售和资产管理。
L
Liz Ann Sonders
作为查尔斯·施瓦布公司的首席投资策略师,Liz Ann Sonders 负责市场和经济分析、投资者教育和资产配置建议。
M
Mike Townsend
以深入分析和解读华盛顿政策和新闻为投资者提供指导的专家。
Topics
Mike Townsend分析了2025年即将到来的四大关键政策辩论,以及新一届政府在将竞选承诺转化为国会现实上面临的挑战。这四大议题分别是关税、税收、债务上限和放松监管,它们将对每个投资者产生重大影响。特朗普总统支持关税,并提议对所有进口商品征收10%至20%的全面关税,对中国进口商品征收60%的关税。许多经济学家认为,特朗普的关税提案存在重大经济风险,可能导致通货膨胀加剧、经济增长放缓,并引发全球贸易战。2017年的所有减税措施将于2025年底到期,国会需要采取行动。如果共和党继续控制众议院,他们可以使用预算和解程序快速延长到期的税收条款。债务上限将于2025年1月2日恢复,国会需要在2025年中期之前提高债务上限。特朗普政府将把放松监管作为首要任务,金融服务业可能是放松监管的主要目标。加密货币行业可能是选举的大赢家,因为它将面临更友好的监管环境。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Cathy and Liz Ann discuss their immediate reactions to the election and the Fed's rate cut, highlighting market volatility and the uncertainty surrounding potential tax changes and tariffs.
  • Market initially shot up after the election but reversed the next day.
  • Uncertainty about tax changes and tariffs creates a wide range of potential outcomes.
  • Fed's rate cut and future outlook are closely watched, with the December meeting being particularly important.

Shownotes Transcript

In this special bonus episode from WashingtonWise, host Mike Townsend takes an in-depth look at the key policy debates that are coming in 2025 and the difficulties the incoming administration will have turning broad campaign promises into reality on Capitol Hill. 

Kathy and Liz Ann give their overview of where we stand, a week after the election and the Fed's rate cut. Then, Mike explores how razor-thin majorities in Congress and economic realities may necessitate compromise on four big policy issues that will dominate 2025 and impact every investor: tariffs, taxes, the debt ceiling, and deregulation. Mike also provides updates on non-election news out of Washington, including the Federal Reserve's most recent rate cut and efforts to preserve its independence; the odd dynamic of the post-election session of Congress and the looming deadline to fund government operations; and changes for 2025 to retirement savings contribution limits.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab). For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting).

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts).

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.  

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.  

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets.

Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

Small-cap stocks are subject to greater volatility than those in other asset categories.

The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) strategies implemented by mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and separately managed accounts are currently subject to inconsistent industry definitions and standards for the measurement and evaluation of ESG factors; therefore, such factors may differ significantly across strategies. As a result, it may be difficult to compare ESG investment products.  Further, some issuers may present their investment products as employing an ESG strategy, but may overstate or inconsistently apply ESG factors. An investment product’s ESG strategy may significantly influence its performance.  Because securities may be included or excluded based on ESG factors rather than other investment methodologies, the product’s performance may differ (either higher or lower) from the overall market or comparable products that do not have ESG strategies. Environmental (“E”) factors can include climate change, pollution, waste, and how an issuer protects and/or conserves natural resources. Social (“S”) factors can include how an issuer manages its relationships with individuals, such as its employees, shareholders, and customers as well as its community. Governance (“G”) factors can include how an issuer operates, such as its leadership composition, pay and incentive structures, internal controls, and the rights of equity and debt holders. Carefully review an investment product’s prospectus or disclosure brochure to learn more about how it incorporates ESG factors into its investment strategy.

The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets and 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries, covering approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.

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