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cover of episode Uncertainty Around Future Policy

Uncertainty Around Future Policy

2024/11/22
logo of podcast On Investing

On Investing

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Kathy Jones
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Liz Ann Sonders
作为查尔斯·施瓦布公司的首席投资策略师,Liz Ann Sonders 负责市场和经济分析、投资者教育和资产配置建议。
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Liz Ann Sonders认为,关税政策和移民改革都会对通货膨胀产生影响。她指出,关税会减缓经济增长并推高通货膨胀,而大规模的驱逐出境将减少劳动力供应,进一步加剧通胀压力。此外,她还表达了对房地产市场未来走势的担忧,认为该市场对利率变化非常敏感,且近期数据不乐观。最后,她表示,政策的不确定性使得企业难以进行长期规划,导致资本支出意愿疲软。 Kathy Jones认为,鉴于当前经济的韧性,美联储有理由在12月暂停加息。她指出,经济数据显示经济增长健康,就业充分,工资增长良好,没有必要进一步收紧货币政策。此外,她也强调了政策不确定性对经济和市场的影响,认为在当前形势下,美联储应保持谨慎,观察政策变化对经济的影响。她还分析了债券市场,指出期限溢价的上升反映了市场对未来政策和通货膨胀的担忧。

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Chapters
The discussion focuses on the potential inflationary effects of tariffs and immigration reform, highlighting the uncertainty around policy changes and their economic implications.
  • Tariffs could lead to higher inflation due to increased costs.
  • Immigration reform could reduce labor supply, raising labor costs and further fueling inflation.

Shownotes Transcript

In this week's episode, Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab's chief investment strategist, and Kathy Jones, Schwab's chief fixed income strategist, discuss the current economic landscape, focusing on policy changes in Washington, the implications of tariffs and immigration reform on inflation, and the Federal Reserve's potential moves at their next meeting. They explore the dynamics of the housing market, the uncertainty businesses face due to fluctuating policies, and the impact of global events on market reactions. The discussion concludes with reflections on gratitude and collaboration within their teams.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab). For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting).

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts).

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

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