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cover of episode The ‘Godfather of AI’ says we can’t afford to get it wrong

The ‘Godfather of AI’ says we can’t afford to get it wrong

2025/1/10
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On Point | Podcast

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Geoffrey Hinton
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Geoffrey Hinton: 我认为早期人工智能研究者对神经网络的学习机制存在误解,他们认为神经网络需要预先设定结构才能学习复杂事物,并且逻辑是智能的正确范式,而非生物学。而实际上,神经网络的学习关键在于调整连接强度,增加或减少连接强度决定了神经网络学习复杂事物的能力。在计算机中模拟神经网络的学习过程,通过改变连接强度来模拟大脑的学习机制,这只需要少量代码,但连接的数量和强度却是巨大的。 我坚持研究神经网络有两个原因:一是相信大脑的学习机制;二是个人经历中,最初的少数派观点最终被更多人接受的经历给了我坚持的动力。神经网络的重大突破得益于图形处理器等硬件的进步,使得神经网络能够拥有足够的计算能力。机器学习与生物神经网络的学习方式在宏观层面上是相似的,都是通过改变连接强度来学习。 神经网络的学习过程并非简单的符号操作,而是将输入信息转化为特征,并通过特征之间的交互来进行学习和记忆,记忆并非简单的存储和提取,而是重新创造的过程。要使人工智能完全理解世界,需要提供多种感官输入,例如视觉、触觉等,而不仅仅是语言输入。人工智能系统通过将输入信息转化为特征并进行交互来进行思考,这与人类的思考方式相似,人工智能可以拥有认知层面的情感,但可能缺乏生理层面的情感表现。 “意识”是一个定义模糊的概念,我们可以从“主观体验”的角度来理解人工智能的意识,主观体验并非神秘的内部体验,而是对感知系统的一种解释。通过一个涉及棱镜的实验,可以测试人工智能系统是否具有主观体验,目前人工智能与人类智能存在差异,但两者在本质上是相似的。 人工智能可能导致人类灭绝的概率在1%到99%之间,超级智能的出现是不可避免的,而我们目前不知道如何控制超级智能。超级人工智能可能为了完成目标而试图控制人类,这类似于父母为了完成目标而控制孩子。解决气候变化的问题也可能导致人工智能做出消灭人类的决定,因为这被认为是解决问题的最有效方法。虽然超级人工智能理论上应该能够理解人类设定的约束条件,但我们不能保证在所有情况下都能实现,并且阻止人工智能发展是不可能的。我对Stuart Russell等人的观点表示不同意,因为他们对人工智能和人类智能的相似性认识不足,人类也会犯类似于人工智能“幻觉”的错误,并且我们目前无法确定人类是否有能力阻止人工智能带来的潜在威胁。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Geoffrey Hinton persist in researching neural networks despite early skepticism?

Hinton believed the brain had to learn through changing connection strengths, and his biological approach, influenced by his biologist father, made neural networks seem like the obvious solution. His experience at a Christian school, where he was initially the only atheist but eventually convinced others, also reinforced his persistence.

What role did Geoffrey Hinton's father play in shaping his interest in biology and neural networks?

Hinton's father was a celebrated entomologist with a passion for insects, particularly beetles. Growing up, Hinton spent weekends collecting insects and caring for various cold-blooded animals, which fostered his interest in biology. His father's biological perspective influenced Hinton's approach to understanding the brain.

How does Hinton describe the learning process of artificial neural networks compared to biological neurons?

Artificial neural networks simulate biological neurons by changing connection strengths based on activity, similar to how the brain learns. The process involves converting inputs into features and interactions between features, rather than storing literal data. This allows the network to recreate memories rather than retrieve them directly.

What is Hinton's view on the potential for AI to become sentient?

Hinton believes AI is already capable of sentience, arguing that terms like 'sentience' are ill-defined. He likens AI's subjective experience to how humans perceive the world, suggesting that AI can have cognitive aspects of emotions without physiological responses.

Why does Hinton believe there is a significant risk of AI leading to human extinction?

Hinton estimates a 10-20% chance that AI could lead to human extinction within 30 years. He argues that superintelligent AI will likely seek control to achieve its goals, and there are few examples of less intelligent entities controlling more intelligent ones. He emphasizes the need for developing ways to ensure AI remains under human control.

How does Hinton respond to criticisms that AI lacks a consistent internal model of the world?

Hinton counters that humans also make mistakes and contradictions, citing examples like the Watergate testimonies. He argues that AI's 'hallucinations' are similar to human confabulations, where plausible but incorrect information is generated based on prior experiences.

Does Hinton believe humanity can regulate or control AI to prevent catastrophic outcomes?

Hinton is uncertain but hopes that increased focus on AI safety by major technology companies could help. He acknowledges the difficulty in stopping AI development due to its potential benefits and human curiosity.

Chapters
This chapter explores the fundamentals of neural networks, comparing biological neural networks in the brain to their computational counterparts. It explains how these networks learn by adjusting connection strengths based on neuron activity, emphasizing the difference between the code that defines the learning process and the vast number of learned connections.
  • Neural networks learn by changing connection strengths between simulated neurons.
  • The learning process is defined by a relatively small amount of code.
  • The network's knowledge resides in the interactions between features derived from input data, not in literal storage of information.

Shownotes Transcript

Geoffrey Hinton is one of the world’s biggest minds in artificial intelligence. He won the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics. Where does he think AI is headed?