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cover of episode All Eyes Turn To Major Tech Earnings

All Eyes Turn To Major Tech Earnings

2025/1/29
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On The Tape

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D
Dan Nathan
知名金融分析师和评论员,常在 CNBC 上提供市场分析和评论。
G
Guy Adami
经验丰富的华尔街交易员和金融分析师,知名媒体人物。
Topics
Dan Nathan: 我认为美联储此次会议不会调整联邦基金利率,但新闻发布会上的评论至关重要。市场对过去美联储会议的反应各不相同,此次会议后的市场波动可能超过1%。鉴于市场对波动性的预期较低,买卖SPY期权可能是一个不错的策略。此外,科技巨头如微软、特斯拉和Meta的财报即将公布,其中微软对OpenAI的投资及其影响值得关注,因为这关系到过去两年半来推动股市上涨的主要长期趋势是否处于拐点。苹果的财报也同样重要,其在中国市场的表现以及整体经济环境对其业绩有重大影响。 总的来说,我认为利率仍然是市场的主要驱动因素。长期利率可能上涨,这将对市场产生负面影响。白宫对美联储施加的压力以及地缘政治因素也是2025年市场面临的不确定性。 Guy Adami: 我认为今早的GDP修正数据出乎一些人的意料,这可能与企业为避免潜在关税而提前发货有关。美联储可能不会像市场预期的那样鸽派,因为他们可能对收益率曲线迅速陡峭化感到担忧。市场已经习惯了在波动性上涨后迅速回落,这使得波动性卖出策略变得非常流行,但这种状况可能不会持续。美联储会议后的市场反应可能出现大幅波动,甚至出现先涨后跌或先跌后涨的情况。 在科技股方面,我认为微软的股价表现至关重要,因为它处于一个十字路口,需要新的因素来刺激其增长。微软对OpenAI的投资及其对微软产品和服务的整合将是其财报的关键内容。台积电和英伟达的股价走势对整体市场具有重要意义。英伟达股价的巨幅下跌反映了其巨大的市值和投资者情绪的转变。特斯拉的财报可能低于预期,其利润率和交付量都可能不及预期,其股价走势将取决于其基本面和马斯克与政府关系的预期之间的平衡。苹果公司对整体市场仍然具有重要意义,因为它被广泛纳入ETF中。但其股价自6月份以来的上涨是估值扩张的结果,但这可能无法持续。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami delve into the Fed's imminent decision on interest rates, predicting no change in the Fed funds rate and highlighting the significance of commentary during the presser. They discuss market reactions to past Fed meetings, GDP revisions, and expectations for current market volatility. A key segment is dedicated to analyzing major tech earnings, including Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta, with a particular focus on Microsoft's investment in OpenAI and its implications. The hosts also touch on crucial market players like Taiwan Semiconductor and Nvidia, examining their recent stock movements and broader market impact. As the discussion shifts, attention is given to Apple's expected report and its strategic positioning amid economic and geopolitical challenges. The episode concludes with remarks on the broader implications of Fed policies, White House pressures, and anticipations for market trends into 2025.

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About the Show:

On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.

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