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cover of episode Fed Stays Steady & The "Sell America" Trade with Peter Boockvar

Fed Stays Steady & The "Sell America" Trade with Peter Boockvar

2025/6/19
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On The Tape
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Peter Boockvar
作为Bleakley Financial Group的首席投资官和《The Boock Report》的编辑，Peter Boockvar提供深入的经济和市场分析。
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Peter Boockvar: 我认为市场对美联储的任何鸽派信号都非常敏感，他们渴望听到鸽派言论。然而，鲍威尔并未提供市场期待的信号，他强调需要观察关税的影响。美联储降低了GDP预测，提高了通胀预测，这是一个复杂的问题。我认为关税是导致通胀上升和经济增长放缓的原因，而且关税的影响可能不是一次性的，而是长期的，会扰乱全球供应链。作为资金管理者，我的观点不能有任何偏见，必须基于事实。良好的风险管理需要时刻关注潜在的风险。我会将经济分解成不同的部分，以便了解潜在的影响因素。经济增长主要来自政府支出、高收入人群消费和与人工智能相关的资本支出，但存在许多疲软环节。我认为美联储将在9月开始降息，因为失业率和劳动力市场的轨迹正在上升。今年经济增速将放缓，GDP增长率将降至1%。关税实际上提高了企业税率，将对经济活动产生重大影响。降息并不一定能减轻购房者的负担，美联储只能控制短期利率，长期利率有其自身规律。总的来说，我认为美联储的政策对经济和市场产生了重大影响，但他们可能更多地受到市场和通胀的制约。

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This chapter analyzes Jerome Powell's recent statements on the economy, focusing on the impact of tariffs on GDP, inflation, and the labor market. The discussion covers the Fed's potential future rate cuts and the challenges in predicting the long-term effects of tariffs on economic growth.
  • Fed lowered GDP forecast to 1.4%, raised inflation forecast to 3%
  • Uncertainty about the one-time or flow-through effects of tariffs on inflation
  • Concerns about the impact of tariffs on various sectors, including housing and manufacturing

Shownotes Transcript

Dan Nathan and his co-host Guy Adami are joined by Peter Boockvar), CIO at Bleakly Financial Group). The discussion centers around recent statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, analyzing market reactions and economic forecasts, particularly in light of tariffs and inflation concerns. The hosts and guest delve into the Fed's stance on future rate cuts, the impact on GDP and inflation projections, and the broader implications for the labor market, housing sector, and global trade. Peter emphasizes the importance of unbiased risk management and offers a nuanced perspective on the potential economic repercussions of current fiscal policies. The episode also explores the role of the Federal Reserve, questioning whether market mechanisms should independently set interest rates. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMedia)Instagram: @riskreversalmedia)Twitter: @RiskReversal)LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media)