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Welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast. I'm Dan Nathan. That's Guy Adami. We got a lot going on here on a Tuesday. Guy is all knotted up. He has his suit on and you look a little like you're schvitzing a little bit. Have you been schvitzing? It's like 100 degrees out. Well, not that anybody cares. We care. 930. Well, I mean, I won't bore everybody to death. Just give it to us. Give it to us. The

The cars were supposed to pick me up, got into an accident. They didn't call me, got an Uber, was in the car at like 9.45, and you see what time it is now. Okay, but listen. Okay, so we've been texting. We've had our group chat going on. Sure.

lot going on in the bills Bill's waving a water at me I know he wants to get give him a water over bring it over Bill come on this guy look at it he's gonna he's gonna faint on this here um all right so so warm out thank you it is warm out um let's do this thing guys so here we are the S&P you see the the the cash is at 60 80 you like to use that expression cash right so we have the cash at 60 80 we've seen this consolidation here uh

you know, in and around the 6,000 level, you and I have been going about debating what is the thing that causes us to make a new high, establish a new range. You know, we have, let's say yields have come in a little bit. We have the 10 year at 4.3. We have crude oil. That's absolutely gotten decimated. It's back at that 65, 50 level that we've talked about.

about a lot. The dollar has given everything back and gold is down 2%. That's not something we've seen in a long time. So what does this say? Risk on. And we're going to talk about a bunch of sectors here. How much faith do you have given the headline that the market is reacting to right now, that this is the sort of thing that can hold and can build towards new highs? Well, what I find to be fascinating is the market

really never sold off in a meaningful way, in a meaningful way on the back of the original war between, right, Iran and Israel, if you think about it. Going back two and a half weeks. Yeah, whenever that started, right? So...

Now we're rallying on a potential ceasefire and peace. So it's just, again, it's just the market is on autopilot right now. It doesn't sell off on bad news, rallies on the subsequent good news, and everybody's sort of feeling good about things. And on the geopolitical front...

Yes. You know what? It's good to feel good about things. We'll see how long this lasts. But in terms of the market, and you just said it, we gap open higher today. We're approaching the prior all-time high in the S&P, which I believe was 61.47. There's a chance today, and the market sort of troughs on the really bad news, and maybe it's sort of

peaks out on the really good news. So we could create this little island today where the market now trades sideways for the rest of the day, and we'll see what happens tomorrow. Of course, not the problem, but the mitigating factors are this is now quarter end as we get closer. Tomorrow's Wednesday, and we're approaching that quarter end. So-

I don't know what to tell you. I mean, I think you know what I feel. You know, the market, regardless of all the things that have happened geopolitically, once again, it's gotten itself as expensive as we've been now in quite some time. If you look at...

The CAPE ratios we talk about, we'll put it in the notes. If you look at the Buffett indicator, right back to levels that are very concerning. A couple, two and a half standard deviations higher than what he deems to be sort of reasonable. And then just the price to earnings in terms of the S&P 500.

we're very extended here. And obviously in terms of all the optimism, as negative as we were in the first week of April, that's how sort of enthusiastic we are now. Yeah, I agree with that. Let's go back to the, you see that consolidation, that was the all-time high. And it was a, like, you know,

by a whisker, by a whisper, you know, that sort of thing. Whisker, we've talked about that. Yeah, so that was February 19th. That was that kind of 6150-ish level. You know, it wasn't having an easy time breaking out of that range, right, if you think about it. So back then, so look at how we are here. I agree with you. I don't see a whole heck of a lot of,

of gusto there. So I say to myself, okay, when we were back in February and people were hoping for a breakout to new highs, they hope that this deregulation, this pro-growth sort of thing, the tax cuts, you know, all this sort of stuff that was meant to work its way into the economy and thus the markets, this is obviously with the new administration, that failed pretty quickly. So I look at it here and I'm like, I don't have a ton of enthusiasm about the ability to break out. It

in my opinion, it would take a huge Fed pivot, okay, for the right reasons, for the market to kind of break out and make new highs and investors feel like we're off to the races again. So I just want to add one other thing, guys. So as of today, as we're speaking right now, the S&P 500 is up 3.3% on the year. For the year. The NASDAQ is up...

about 3% on the year, which is very interesting, actually. Rarely do we see the S&P outperforming the NASDAQ. But the NASDAQ is up 15% quarter to date, and the S&P is up about 8% quarter to date. So you bring up the quarter end, might we see window dressing? Is that what they're kind of getting to? Not that anybody cares, but the Dow's up a percent. And just to sort of round this out, the Russell is down... Yeah.

3%, I believe, for the year. Yep, I'm right. So again, I don't know what any of it necessarily means, but to your point,

If it's a Fed pivot, okay. I mean, that's a potential point. I think it needs to be a reacceleration of earnings on the back of, I'm not sure exactly what, because if you look at some of the data that's coming out, just look at the home builder data. If you listen to what the home builders are saying, things are slowing down. If you listen to what a lot of these retailers are saying, things are slowing down. If you listen to sort of the delinquencies out there, things are elevating significantly.

in the wrong way in terms of delinquency rates and all the things that the banks should be concerned about. But then you look at the way the banks are trading today and you say, wait a second, everything you're saying, clearly the banks don't care. I mean, Citi, for example, today is up north of 2%. So it's as they say, I mean, the market is interpreting these things

All the good news to me is being priced in right now. - Yeah, so JP Morgan, let's pull that one up for a second. JP Morgan is basically trading at a new all-time high. If it closes here today, that's a new all-time high. That's obviously been a leading indicator, in my opinion, as it relates to the markets.

One thing I want to say about if you're trying to find the thing or another thing other than the Fed pivot, and when I say pivot, I mean, listen, Fed funds, futures, the CME. - They acquiesce. - Yeah, they acquiesce. They get more dovish the next time we hear him speak or July 30th, they basically hint to the fact that they're going to be cutting interest rates.

definitely in September, and maybe they, listen, I think you gotta go back to last year, September 50 basis points, November 25, December 25. The thought that they couldn't get aggressive for the right reasons, that's a massive tailwind. They're gonna get this tax bill done. Here's the thing about the tax bill.

The tax cuts are retroactive. They go back to the first of this year, okay? Then the other thing is the spending cuts that are meant to pay for the tax cuts, they don't happen immediately. So if you put together lower tax rates, you put together the increased spending, that is fiscal stimulus. Make no mistake about it, and that could also be the thing. So I'm fired up here not because I'm geeked up that the market's going to – I'm just really trying to drill down on what the –

potential things if you were a bull if you think we're breaking out and we're off to the races and we're going towards 7 000 by year end then you better have a lot of this stuff aligned without question you gotta and you gotta be comfortable with valuations that are historically rich i mean all the ones we just talked about but i mean most specifically the ones i think people understand is just sort of price to earnings is you know we're sitting here right now we're probably approaching 23 times

price to earnings in the S&P 500, which is historically extraordinarily expensive when you think about the mean is somewhere between sort of 16 and a half and 17. And that's not that's in just a normal environment. You know, I don't know what environment we're in. I know a lot of people talking about a slowdown in the...

potential for recession a lot of people have pulled that off the table but things are definitely slowing down around the edges and I just don't think the market is deserving of this premium valuation but obviously I'm in the minority on that one as we look again in S and P approaching 6100 yeah no one gives a crap about 20 no it's just amazing to me because that is you know on average over the last 50 years I think the

you know, average PE. And again, there's different things going on. We get it, you know, productivity gains with AI and all that sort of stuff. Like I'm just saying that's part of the bullish narrative. Um, you know, so we're 23 versus 19 times as the average, let's just rip through here, Steven put together some charts. So we talk about what is supportive of equity valuations. Let's just look at the 10 year, right? You see that sitting right on the 200 day moving average. It's, you know, four 30. Let's look at crude oil here. We see that reversal. It's kind of back towards those levels. Um,

you know, that are probably for a consumer. If you're looking at, you know, a gallon at the tank, that's like that sort of thing. It's probably below on average three bucks right now. Does that make some sense? So that's okay. And then the dollar weakness. So all of those things for U.S. corporate earnings, they're not bad. Yeah. Well, the weaker dollar. Okay. So let's go one by one. Yeah.

Carter's done a great job. You've done as well in terms of treasury yields. I've been sort of in the higher camp. There are times where I look smart. There are other times where I don't. That's just typical of the market. I'll say this, though.

Rates are going lower here. I don't know exactly why though. You know, it's interesting. It made sense that you saw a flight to quality or perceived quality in the form of the bond market when things were at their zenith in terms of bombs and what was going on in the Middle East. Things have quieted down. You would think there'd be a reversal of that. The bond market would sell, fields are going higher. That's not happening.

The flip side of that coin, or maybe on the same side of that coin, is the weakness in the dollar. And if you want to put up a dollar chart, and I know we have it, that's the one I think that should be concerning because there's been zero bounce in the dollar other than that blip higher at sort of the apex of the hostilities. Yeah, no doubt. I mean, listen, the sell America trade, at least in the dollar, makes some sense. But if you see lower yields, you're seeing buying of U.S. treasuries, okay? And so again, who knows?

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All right, you want to rip it towards the single stocks here, Guy, because, you know, Stephen put together a whole pastiche, if you will, of calls of the day. And this one caught your eye. So, and this is really interesting to me because the semis right now, the socks is up three and a half percent. It is ripping. This is versus an S&P that is up less than, you know, one percent or so as we speak, as we get into noon. So, Stephen, what do you think?

This is an upgrade of Broadcom. And I didn't know that there was any analyst left who didn't have a buy rating on this stock, right? But they're talking about just more upside. They're saying turn on positive on Broadcom as we now believe it's ASIC. Okay. This is the custom silicon that they contract with a bunch of these big hyperscales. Revenues will significantly beat market expectations for better ASIC project visibility. All right.

as well as pricing power. Now, going back to December when it had that huge gap, Hoctan, the CEO of Broadcom, spoke to exactly this. And the stock went up 40% in two days. That's how the Mag7 guy became the faithful eight. Okay.

Now, obviously, it was one of the hardest hit semis off of those levels. You know what I mean? It sold off nearly 45% or something like that. Now it's one of the first semis to make new all-time highs. What do you make of an upgrade like this? Because do you chase something that was $145,000, right? And now that it's, you know, $263,000, this isn't a matter of two and a half months. Yeah. So $400 price target, they go from hold to buy, right? Yeah.

from hold to buy. They've obviously been on the sidelines in this thing. And just like traders get squeezed, analysts get squeezed as well. And I think that's what's happening now. A $400 price target in this stock suggests EPS growth at

You know, I'm not quite sure you're going to see because right before our very eyes right now, I think Broadcom on a trailing basis is north of 90 times. On a forward basis, you probably have it up there. But it's gotten itself pretty expensive historically. So I don't know. You've got to hope that all the things that they talk about come to fruition in a very meaningful and a very short way. And I just...

Listen, I think it could happen over time. I don't think it's going to happen as quickly as people think. And you've seen how quickly the other side of this equation happens in terms of the sell offs. And there's still a significant gap in this chart. I mean, I think they're sort of ringing the bell here. Well, by the way, you know, if you think about what the guidance was in December and now you have analysts coming around to this and you have basically to your point, you know, the market is kind of front run this sort of, you know, if if

If Broadcom comes out, let's say in a month, right, and they give their guidance and it's just it's great guidance, but it's in line with the streets. I think it can't be good enough. And so it's trading at 32 times next year's expected EPS growth of about 24 percent revenue growth expected to be 22 percent or so. You know, it's not outrageous, but it's not particularly great. It's not outrageous at all.

No, it's I mean, we've seen outrageous. This is not outrageous. I mean, you do. So I think they're expect to earn like eight dollars and 20 cents or so next year. I'm looking at it now. So you can do that sort of back of the envelope math. But, you know, you're going to have to help the disacceleration continues and, you know, not in perpetuity, but over the next few years. And we'll see. I mean, this was by the way, this was a name we loved last year into the fall.

When he had that guidance in December, I think we collectively said, this is insane in terms of the move. You got the subsequent pullback, which did make sense. This reacceleration to a point makes sense, but not here today. You know, it's funny. I remember we did some math, and sometimes you and I are okay with math. Well, you're good in your head. I need a calculator here, but...

And those two days in December when the stock gapped up after, I think they gave like some TAM about custom silicon, you know, based on AI demand was gonna be whatever it was, you could drive a truck through it. It was maybe like 30 billion or 30 billion to the 70 billion or something like that. And if you valued...

if you valued, no, I think it was bigger than that. Whatever it was. And we'd have to go back and look, but I remember it was 300, whatever. We'll go back to it. But the, to your point, the guide, the, the band was ridiculous. It was ridiculous. But then if you valued how much the, uh, you know, market cap it gained, you were like basically saying that they are going to get 60% of all of that, you know, Tam or whatever. It was a little silly. All right. Yesterday, um,

as you and I are often, um, confused when it comes to the markets here. Um, you know, Tesla, they put like, I don't know, seven, eight, um, robo taxis, um, in Austin, in Austin. Okay. And a lot of folks were really geeked up about it and that sort of thing. Um, the stock at one point was up 10%. I mean, just think about that.

It was up basically $100 billion in market cap. Now, it's come off a little bit today here, but one of the knock-on effects was what does this mean for the ride-hailing companies? Okay, so Uber, which is the you in your tube, they are launching Waymo. So you're using an Uber app. You can use the Waymo app, but you use the Uber app to

call up, okay, you can call up a Waymo car, which is an autonomous vehicle and they're launching in Atlanta. And so this is great for Uber right here. Why? Because it's not going to have to be a winner take all, right? And Uber, like a lot of folks who said this is existential, they use humans to drive their cars, that sort of thing.

Talk to us a little bit how you're thinking about this. This is a big move today. If you watched Fast Money last night, we had a conversation about Tesla. We talked about it on Market Call yesterday. We said we've seen Uber sell off on the back of Waymo News a couple times now. We've seen it on the Tesla News probably a couple times now. And each time was short-lived. And yesterday on Fast Money, when we had the conversation...

you know, as wrong as I am all the time, one thing we got right was saying the way to trade this is to be long Uber. And then I think it happened today, but, you know, here we are. And I do think this creates a huge tailwind, and I think it gives it some valuation cushion as well in terms of what they can grow into. So as you mentioned, Uber is the you in my tube. I don't think it's ridiculously expensive. I think this is a name that can surprise people. And by the way, I have to go back and look, but it was last week,

We saw, I think it was Stiefel, I'd have to go back and check, but we saw an upgrade in the name that made a lot of sense to me. Obviously, you know, the Waymo News sort of took some of the wind out of it, the Uber did as well, but

But, excuse me, the Tesla did as well. But Uber's right back on the horse today, Dan. Yeah, so expecting earnings next year, 22%. Expecting revenue growth of about 14%. It trades at about 25 times next year. Not crazy. No, it's not crazy at all. But this leads us to an upgrade. This is from TD Cowan. That's Toronto Dominion Bank. TD Bank. Cowan guy. I don't know if you saw that. So they upgrade. Sorry, real quick. It was initiated with $110 price target.

Last week, I'd have to go with Stiefel. I was right. Look at me. Unbelievable. It really is impressive. All right, let's look at Lyft for a second here. That's like shocking. So Lyft had that huge move on better than expected earnings and guidance. This is a little bit more than, I want to say, two months ago or so. It gave back a lot of that move, came back to that 200-day moving average, did not fill in that gap down towards $12.50, $13.00.

upgraded today at td count as we just said they're raising their estimates for lyft we see multiple growth levers ahead uh a mig strong execution from the current management team uh we have also refocused the company on customer obsession that's interesting title i don't know people obsessed with lyft and has rolled out multiple innovations to improve experience to ride riders and drivers now

Lyft because they have 30% of North American market share. Okay, that means Uber has about 70%. They're never going to be taking meaningful share. So talk to me a little bit how you're thinking about this. All right, so this is the way we go back in history now, and I'm going to ask Stephen to do something. But if you put up like a six or seven year chart,

of Lyft and Uber at the same time. You'll see there was a period of time where Lyft actually outperformed Uber. And the reason why was because Lyft was sort of the pure play and Uber is getting themselves into all kinds of things.

That pendulum sort of switched a couple years ago when all of a sudden Uber became the ultimate play and Lyft was sort of left by the wayside. And I think that's what's going on here. Uber has sort of gotten through the difficult part of integrating all these different businesses where Lyft is just still the pure play, I guess, ride share. Not that I don't like Lyft, but I like Uber a lot better.

is the Ellen Tim Seymour's blysep from last year. I don't know if it's in bland this year, but if you're playing the game, I think it's still uber over lift. All right, so let's just talk about lift for a second. And we talk about sentiment all the time. I mean, generally, we don't really care about

Much about analyst ratings. Okay, but it seems like the analyst community is all in on the uber And the sentiment suggests that the price action suggests that on the lift front when you get an upgrade like this again No one cares. I mean, I don't even know who this analyst is from know this But when you think about this there are 13 buy ratings there are 31 holds and

and two cells now i just want to go back to a couple things about lyft all right so yeah the stock's up today but i've always thought that this should be an m a candidate and you say well why why would you buy this they have 30 market share here in the us and this or whatever well they have

a platform, right? And they have tons of data about their customers, about where cities and demand trends and this and that, whatever. They also have a margin structure that is better. I think their margins, gross margins, like 42 and a half percent versus let's say Uber at 40 and a half. Now you could say the unit economics and some of the delivery stuff is not nearly as good, but it's expanded usage of their whole platform and this and that.

As you think about autonomous vehicles, you think about where Waymo is, which is owned by Google. They have a huge advantage right now. We can debate the technology, this and that, whatever. It's LiDAR for Waymo versus cameras for Tesla. I'm not getting into any of them. All right, but Tesla thinks...

I'm going to be in San Francisco tomorrow and I will take at least three Waymos. I love the way a ride rather than an Uber, rather than an Uber or Lyft. I'll take a Waymo. It's an amazing experience. Okay. But here's my thing about Lyft. Okay. $200 billion market cap for Uber, 70% market share margins that are not nearly, well, they're just a little bit worse than Lyft. Lyft has a $5.6 billion enterprise value. It's got a $6.6 billion, um,

market cap they have 2.1 billion dollars in cash you're going to say somebody should buy lift 100 now you know should well they won't do it google no well you know why they can't why because regulatory stuff well

Okay. I'm just saying like, think about it, right? It would make a lot of sense. It would, but they already have Waymo, which would be, I think it would be deemed non-competitive. You don't understand what I'm saying? So the last thing that, that Google needs is the FTC or the DOJ up their ass or any of their competitors yelling about it, right? Cause they're waiting for remedies about, you know, they're obviously their browser and all the other search stuff and everything like that. There is a buyer for Lyft.

And maybe it's Amazon. They have Zooks. You've probably been in one of their ride-hailing autonomous. But my point is, I like this name. I like it. I think it's just not a difficult name to get behind. All right. Did we overdo that a little bit? No, I don't think so. By the way, did you say Remedy? Yeah.

yeah that's a great isn't that a great black rose song black rose i saw them live december 22nd 2024 at the cap theater and they played remedy all right guy here's one this is squarely focused i mean that's like oddly specific yeah and i got to meet the robinson brothers too which was kind of cool but now i think they actually didn't they were pretty cool okay so goldman sachs downgrades dollar general yeah okay you know good for them i i have

no issue with this one. You've had a big run. Yeah. You know, I thought it would fill the gap up to sort of 125. We've talked about it on this show. And I remember when Walmart came out and reported that

And then they talked about having to pass on the cost in terms of the tariffs. And then the president got on their ass. And then Target reported and said, well, we're not going to play that game. I tried to start to connect some dots. I'm like, you know who's going to win in this thing? The dollar stores. And we actually talked about Dollar Gen. Then we said we're starting to see a bearish to bullish reversal in the name. And that played out. If Stephen wants to sort of make this a little bit longer, you'll see.

I thought that gap that was created to the downside in the fall would be filled and that was sort of 125-ish. I guess it sort of got close, but I think Goldman's taking the opportunity to say, you know what, we've seen a bounce in this name. The fundamentals are still challenged.

we're going to sort of play a little stock market here. So I don't have a huge issue with it. I will say I think they're a tad early. I still think there might be some room here. But this to me is I think it's sort of a helpful, it's a helpful analyst call. All right. So, you know, this was a company that was benefiting over the last few months. You've been talking about this from a trade down in consumers. You know, prior to years, we were talking about a trade down that's been benefiting Walmart and Costco.

Why do you think it is that Walmart and Costco have really lagged the S&P over the last month and a half or so? And so again, could it be a situation where they're benefiting from a higher end consumer trading down to them, but maybe consumer, the higher end consumers kind of, you know, because of the wealth effect,

Home prices are stuck for a whole host of reasons. You have wage growth that's actually kept up a little bit. You have inflation coming down. You have the wealth effect of the stock market. Are they moving back? Are they shopping at LVMH rather than the Walmart here? I'll attempt to answer your question. We had 10, I think it was 10 straight days of downward action in Walmart, I think.

But what if you really do the math, yeah, it was down 10 straight days, but it's not like it was cascading lower. At $98.50, we're within seven bucks or so of the prior all time high. So it's not like it's fallen off a cliff. And it's similar in terms of Costco. But to specifically answer your question,

I think this reacceleration in the stock market has found money fly into all these high-flying tech names again, and probably somewhat to the detriment of some of these retailers like Walmart and Costco, who, if you look at it, are expensive on valuation. So to a certain extent, it makes sense. But we have said for a while, you don't really run too far away from Walmart despite the valuation. And I'll say it again. And the same is probably true for Costco. They win in this environment. Yeah.

That's a good segue, though, what you just mentioned, money flowing back into big cap tech or just kind of broadening it out to other tech that's not trillion dollar club, that sort of thing from the fateful eight. On a day like today, it is worth noting that Coinbase, OK, is up. I want to say, all right. So on a day that Bitcoin is up one and a half percent, it's basically trading one hundred five thousand dollars.

Coinbase is trading- It's like 10% today? Yeah, 9% right now. Robinhood, which obviously does a lot of crypto and options and all that sort of stuff, is up, I want to say, 6.5%, 7%. That is a risk on trade. Let's be really clear on that. And that's like endorsing the fact

that, OK, maybe the rest of the market plays a little catch up. All right, so Robinhood, again, this is a name we've talked about, we've liked for a while. Partners of ours, too, to be very clear. Yeah, they are, 100%. But we've been right on the stock. Go back to that Coinbase, because this is where things are going to get sort of dicey here. We're at levels that we last saw, I want to say, in the fall of 2020. Go even farther back, Stephen. I mean, this stock traded, I think, three-- there you go. So you look at that prior all-time high. You can draw that horizontal line across.

Now, people will say, well, there are no triple tops. And maybe that's true. But we are getting towards significant resistance levels here. So I'd walk with some caution here on this move in Coinbase, up that amount on what's probably you can look. I think the stock trades 15 million shares a day. It's probably north of 20 already. It's going to trade three times normal volume. Yeah, and I guess I bring that up.

just because it's speaking to if you're an investor or you're a trader and you're buying coin, you're buying hood, you're making a bet that we're going to, I mean, they don't buy them when the market's selling off. That's just one thing that's really clear. So it just seems like a pretty decent indication of risk on. The other thing I'll mention is when you just think about some of these, you know,

new issues. Okay. Core weave is a great example. Core weave went public at $38. This is like two and a half months ago. It's trading at $180. That is just divorced from its fundamentals, but that's fine. You want to own it, have a ball. Okay. Um, and we can give you a whole host of reasons that I gave when the stock was $40. You know what I mean? Pre IPO, that sort of thing. So clearly wrong. I'll admit it. I'd stick by what I think about the fundamentals of this company. And then the other one, this is the most recent mega cap, um,

This was Circle. Okay, so Circle is a stablecoin provider. You keep hearing about all these different traditional financial institutions that are adopting stablecoins. We're going to get to MasterCard and Visa for a second here. This stock went public, you want to say, I don't know, a few weeks ago at $31. You see where it is. This is insanity. $245.

That's where it's trading. That's over the course of, what, two weeks, three weeks? Yeah, since the 5th or something like that. So this is a $54 billion market cap company. Now, I will say about these two IPOs, if you were a company and you were looking to raise money and finally go public, and you sold your stock, if you're Circle, at $31, whatever that number is to the public, I think it's $31, and now that stock is trading at $245. You're talking to your bankers. Yeah. Yeah.

I mean, maybe. I don't know. Yeah. I mean, there's two ways to think about it. If you're a banker, you can point to companies and say, listen, this is a great time to go public. Now, if you're talking to companies that just went public, you're like, hey, sorry, we misread. And that's investors, too. It's not just on the bankers. No, I get it. But maybe it's the process of IPOs also. This is a little absurd. I mean, there's a lot of things. Maybe Harvard Business Review should take a look at this in the next few years and say, OK,

What went right here? What went wrong here? Because just given the price action, it's hard for me to make a cogent argument that it was priced at the right level on the IPO date. No, no, no. But listen, yes, but I don't think bankers want to get into this bad habit early on what is a backlog. You don't even know this. Because then it's going to be like, all right, look, they screwed us. Let's figure out different ways to go. No, no, no. It's all fair. It could be those direct listings. You remember that sort of thing? Yeah. Yeah.

Who knows? All right. Let's just, I guess we can finish with this because, you know, FinTech has come back hard. FinTech was one of the hardest sectors hit in late 21. And you remember like a PayPal lost 85. PayPal looked like Yahoo from its highs in 99 to its lows in 2002. Like it still hasn't looked that much better. If you look at it, let's pull it out after five years. Yeah. It's had a big bounce, but if you want to include the COVID thing, I mean, look at that guy. I mean, that's,

And that's on investors. That's not on the company, in my opinion, when you see those sorts of things. But when you see two stalwarts, and I've been doing Fast Money with you for 15 years. Long time. You didn't like me at first. Well, you didn't like me at first. And that was part of the deal. I'm going, by the way, nobody cares. After this, I'm going uptown to speak to a bunch of interns at Skybridge Capital, that Scaramucci's place. Yeah, the Mooch. I'm curious to see what these people are wearing. I'm all effing knotted up.

Are you not digging my outfit here? I'm all effing knotted up. We're going to be interested to see what these kids are wearing. We're going to have a conversation. Yeah, we are. Guy is one of the most interesting speakers to young kids. What's up, Junior? He's going to say the first kid he sees. What's up, Junior? Yesterday we had Kate Swinton.

And then you're going to be like, what's up, chick? Somebody says, what's up, chick? And what's up, junior? All right, we got to get out of here. Amanda is doing well, by the way. So a lot of fun here. We'll be back tomorrow on the Market Call. That'll be 11 a.m. Eastern. Guy might be here on time tomorrow. We have a great Risk Reversal podcast dropping tomorrow morning in the podcast feed. David Rosenberg, Rosie of Rosenberg Research. So check that out tomorrow. Thanks. Bye.

We'll be right back.