No Mulligans In Markets with Dan Ives
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All right, welcome to a very special edition of the Risk Reversal Podcast. I'm Dan Nathan. I'm joined by Dan Ives. Only Dan's today. This is Global Head of Technology Research at Wedbush Securities. Dan, welcome back to the podcast. No, it's great to be here, especially during this time. You look tired. I mean, let me just tell you.

You look tired because every time I look up, you're either on this news broadcast or that news broadcast. And you're actually, you know, kind of breaking things down, I think, to a broader audience than you usually speak to. Obviously, your institutional clients, you come on CNBC and you're talking to an audience for the most part.

who can A, they know you, B, they know the stocks that you cover, you know what I mean? And that's a really kind of important thing. It almost probably feels a little uncomfortable, right, when you're on CNBC. But to go on some of these broader networks and really talk about what's going on, a lot of these folks are looking at you, hearing from you the first time, and they're hearing about, let's say, the inner workings of a sector, technology,

been really important to the stock market gains over the last um you know two years specifically so let's start i had a little rundown here but this is thursday afternoon at one point the uh nasdaq was down six percent a lot of the names that had rallied really hard on wednesday are giving a lot of that back again like i said you look tired you look great if you're listening to this the guy he looks great but you look tired what's going on give me i've probably had

Let's hear it. Maybe in the last like four or five days, maybe like 12, 15 hours combined sleep. Like the last four or five days. What? You got to take care of yourself, bro. But-

In my opinion, in 25 years doing this, it's the scariest time that I've ever seen. And the reason that is, is like, as someone like myself, and this is even forget like stocks, which was just a lot of how I've written over the last week, whatever, 20 notes, it's writing more as like an American citizen, like as a US citizen, really understand, it's something that understands the supply chain.

understands the reality of how we produce, the mechanics of big tech. Look, I think it's, these tariffs, in my opinion, could take big tech, the US tech industry back a decade. So when I talk, whether it's clients and to retail media or whatever, a lot of it is really breaking down the issues and understanding it's not just about stocks.

This is a category five self-inflicted hurricane that's coming to the U.S. consumer. Yeah. Okay. So we'll hit some of the macro. We'll obviously hit some of your most favorite names. And I say your most favorite names. I mean, all the people listening or watching out there, because again, you know, we've talked about, you know, these top 10 stocks in the market here in the U.S. and

you know, they've driven a disproportionate amount of the stock performance or the stock market performance over the last few years. They've also been a big part of the earnings growth story. And so we're seeing somewhat of a kind of, you know, kind of de-risking in that space, which is causing multiples to come down a little bit. So we're going to hit all that, but let's start with the macro here. And you said that this is probably one of the most scary times in the last 25 years. I think those scary, including going to dot-com bubble,

Financial crisis, COVID, if I had to compare, for me that's been through it all, it's definitely the scary. All right, so one of the things that is less concerning to me this time around than let's say the GFC is that there's not a group of stocks

or some sort of theme that was driving the kind of volatility, driving the lack of confidence in the broader market. This is one on a very macro level. It affects almost every country in the world, right? But all of a sudden, we're looking at a situation where, to your point, I think you just said self-inflicted, right? Wasn't there a way in which a lot of investors or market participants were

could have looked at this and I was doing this on Fast Money a lot. OK, so we have a base case, we have a best case and we have a worst case. And if Trump 1.0 told us anything, it was likely to be threatening the worst case, but ends up at the base case. So speak to that a little bit. The problem is, is that, you know, when you're playing a game of high stakes poker like this, you're playing with the economy, you're playing with ultimately CapEx, large purchases,

And understand the rules of the game. So essentially what he single-handedly has done, I think as an administration, they've set off a snowball that's going downhill. And for somebody like myself that speak to hundreds of people in terms of buyers and our team buyers of spending, in terms of what CapEx looks like projects, I think 15-20% of projects, CapEx, automatically halted.

Then you start to look at what else could ultimately be slowed down over. And I just believe we're going into an earnings season besides just new guidance. Street numbers already baking in probably 8% to 10% cuts across the board, whether it's Nvidia, Microsoft, pick your spot. But my view is like the longer this continues, because of the nature of what you're bringing in and the impact that

that tariffs have, even not even just on a baseline 10%. When you look what's happened in China, 30% of ships ultimately got turned around. So my view, it's not even just in terms of like these stocks and can they recover and go through it. My worry, and I've talked about it over the last week, is that you are fundamentally taking, what I believe is probably one of the biggest assets in this country in terms of U.S. tax,

And basically taking it back many, many years. China ultimately giving them the leap. And that's really. All right. So that's something, Dan, a lot of folks are not saying right now. Right. They think we hold all of the cards. And I think that's a really unique take because I have not heard that much on CNBC. I have not read that in any of the newspapers. And I've written about social. And I've written about that.

Constantly. So you've gone from somebody that I think folks think, and listen, you could be called whatever the fuck you want. I've heard it all. But I'm going to say you were very optimistic. And I've been bullish for 25 years. I mean, I've been a perma, but there's no one that's more bullish in terms of tact than me. Yeah. But...

Like, I could call it like I see it. So when I, as someone that spent my career in Taiwan, in China, in Asia, Vietnam, understand supply chains, the concept that we're actually going to try to bring, Apple would take $30 billion

Three years to take 10%. If you like 3,500-hour iPhones, we should make them in New Jersey or Illinois. So the reality is that's why. And then guess what? As all this is happening from NVIDIA to Microsoft, who do you think is ultimately going to benefit? BABA, JD, BYD, Huawei. So the irony is like you're burning your house down yourself, but yet at the same time,

It's really China that ultimately holds the cards because where are the raw materials? Where are the chips? And everyone's like, we can make it here. Have you ever been to a fab in Taiwan? Go to a fab for three hours and tell me that we could do that here. Were you paying someone $24 to work at Chipotle or Starbucks? The labor, the nature of our infrastructure here, how long it would take, it doesn't work.

So the reason that I've been so negative as someone that's been positive for decades, it's the reality of what's happened. Even when you go back to like financecrust.com bubble, COVID, valuation wears numbers, throw out the next two, three quarters. What could numbers be over the next one, two years? Here, that is...

It's systemic. It's a structural thing that's happening to U.S. tech. That's why I've been so outspoken in terms of what's happened. All right. So what do you say to somebody? You just said that you've been bullish for 25 years. I would paint that as like I know that you're very optimistic about what tech can do. You know, obviously what it's done for our country. If you think about some of the most successful companies in the world were created here, some of the best industries.

technology or technological innovation has happened here right and so if you think about your knowledge of just all the manufacturing and the supply chain role you know reliance by these companies on asia what would you say to folks that say dan why weren't you discounting this

ahead of this sort of crisis. We had a little bit of a preview with COVID and what that could mean for disruption of our companies, but also from a national security standpoint. Right. And so I'm just curious and I just want to I kind of I'm just I'm laying that out there because I think that is a legitimate concern. You know what I mean? I mean, Apple has more infrastructure in China today than they did four or five years ago.

The reality is that the nature of the way the global supply chain work, it's ultimately we want the products. They're me and Asia. And that's just... And are there issues in terms of like China and national security and some of that seen IP issues? Of course. Do things have to be worked out? Yeah. But...

When you go down a path like this, the destruction and the self-fulfilling prophecy, and I believe it's why stocks are selling off the way they are. Because I can tell you from an investor perspective, I did a call last night with, what, 300 Asian investors?

The point is that people don't understand what this is doing in terms of destruction of pure demand. You know what I'm saying? And once that starts, you can't all of a sudden be like, deal, Mark. No, we're talking about things that are already set in motion, CapEx project. And then to that point,

It's like our view, the reason we haven't downgraded any tech stock, it's the view like this thing gets resolved with China in the next 30 days, 45 days, 60 days. - You think that? - No, but if it's not,

it's all bets off. - Right. - I mean that-- - But do the investors that you're talking about, they don't give a shit what your rating is on these stocks, do they really? - No, but I'm trying to explain to you, I felt that this current situation was gonna be six months, nine months. - You'd have to step aside on everything. - You'd have to downgrade everything. And that's why I think most of what I'm talking about with investors is like, okay,

Stress test, worst case, Microsoft, where can numbers be? How much could they cut spending? What could EBITDA be? Go back to other valuations over the last 15, 20 years. Where could they ultimately, you know, if you look at 26 numbers.

Apple. Look, Apple's won like 93% iPhones built in China. You could be like some sort of pie in the sky. India could be what, 3% iPhones? I mean, let's just remember, I just want to talk like not fairytale Pinocchio stuff. Facts, reality. And that's why part of this whole week is

has been getting the message out, half as an analyst to our clients, half as a US citizen to explain what's really happening and the reality of seeing something in the Beltway

And next thing you know, an American, you know, a U.S. mayor sees 30, 40 percent increase in the average things they're buying. And then like, what? No, but we have to make it here. I'm like, no, that's that's a that's a fairytale. Do you think it's interesting in the lead up to these tariffs? There was so much emphasis. So we had the steel tariffs and then we had the auto tariffs. And, you know, they were with Canada and they were with Mexico and they were with the EU. And you could have literally just been really, um,

know blinders on and not even thinking about the impact on large tech right in the lead up to it and do you think that was something that was pervasive among investors let's call it in january and february 15 20 reciprocal tariffs that's what you were expecting you weren't expecting a chart that if i sh if i was in junior high and showed to an economics teacher they'd laugh

and say, Dan, sit down, come on, this is a trade deficit, convert into some Goodwill hunting lab chalkboard thing, experiment, that's not reality. So I think that it comes down to like, it'll be known and Siegel's talked about and others, like the worst policy mistake in 100 years. And the reality is that I think now from an investor perspective,

You don't know rules of the game. You don't know where, and I could tell you from a lot of companies that I'm talking to, they don't know their input. So I'll just give you an example. Let's say I was buying, I'm a CIO and I'm buying $100,000 of software with racks and servers and I ordered two months ago, $100,000.

Now, all of a sudden, I'm looking at it, hold on a second. That rack, if I look through Dell, through NetApp, where's that coming from? Is that 100,000? Do I all of a sudden then get hit with another 100,000? That ultimately is a tariff that I'm paying...

They're not paying it. So I think that's the reality. And that's why, like, I stress that. And again, we lowered our rating and we lowered numbers today for Microsoft. It's trying to explain to investors, like, hey, it's not just about no guidance.

You don't understand. Number cuts are going to be something that are not being factored into the extent in these stocks. Let me ask you this as an analyst, and I get frustrated with strategists, right? So they'll lower their S&P target from 6,100 to 5,700, and they're not ratcheting down S&P earnings numbers, right? So do you do that with some of your work? You have to lower. All right.

So it's always attached to as it changes. - I mean, sometimes you lower, and there's times that you could raise or lower based on a multiple or if something happens and you think things have changed. But the reality is from, it's really ultimately a lot of times I think you have to do it along with numbers.

- Well, a multiple, you use a multiple versus a price, but there needs to be some other input, one other input. - Or if it's something like there's a technology in a, like if you think about like, you know, in terms of AI and the multiple, and let's say 30% of a company is now AI or cloud, you'll pay more of a multiple for that, like some of the parts. So there's things like that. But I think, especially when we're talking like what's happening here,

It's trying to basically stress test and understand where the numbers go. Yeah.

Like that's, I mean, that's the reality in terms of like everything that we're trying to figure out. And I'm always the one that's like, you know, me and you've talked for many years, like, yeah. Okay. The quarter, this is if you look through it, this is different because it's structural to the whole business models of tech. So you can just look at it and be like, oh, it's fine. They're going to get through it. That's,

I mean, that's a ruse card glass. I think wrong way to view it. Yeah, so there are two camps right now. You know, there's the folks, and we just saw this play out over the last couple days. You know, you have these guys like Ackman, and you have, you know, some of these guys like David Sachs, and, you know, they're taking victory laps on Wednesday's sort of thing. And I'm like, guys...

I'm not saying this. I don't like either one of those guys. And I think they're literally, it's like, you know, I don't, I don't know. There's so much intellectual dishonesty that's going on in and around this. And especially on the, if you look on the weekend on social media, it was, it was a point that was like stunning, like to your, like in terms of just,

some of the stuff going on social media, but, and so many, there's like so many retail ambassadors, like so many tens of millions that are new since COVID, you know, and they're coming in and they're reading things like, oh, this is done. This is good. No, this is going to be good for us. I'm like, no, you're like McFly. No.

Well, it goes back to what you were just saying is like if you were Apple, you make 95% of your iPhones over there. Tim Cook has spent 40 years of his life or 35 basically creating the infrastructure that has that manufacturing capability over there at low, you know, like at low cost and orienting the entire supply chain, right? To do like, you know this people.

When you order your iPhone on September 20th and it's delivered to you on September 27th, you can look at the FedEx tracking thing and it left Shang-Zoo or some shit like that, you know what I mean, three days earlier and it's sitting at your doorstep, you know what I mean? Like that is the brilliance of Apple, right? That's why it is the- And the brilliance of, we won't talk AI revolution. Look what Nvidia and Jensen did in terms of like with their chips. Where are those chips produced? Ohio?

So the reality is these companies can't all of a sudden be like, oh, you know what? Oh, Nathan Ives, they opened up that new fab in North Carolina. Let's call them. And instead of buying from Taiwan, we're going to call from them. There's only one problem.

That doesn't exist. And it'll take four to five years to build. And then when you build it, it'll be 15x more expensive. And robots are going to be putting the stuff together. And then it goes to that whole thing. And that's why... But yeah, it speaks to why I've been so...

outspoken this week trying to explain not just from an investor perspective but to the average US citizen what's coming. All right, let's go back. I want to go to 2021. You know, we have this period that kind of was post-war

all of this sort of stuff that we're talking about, like a breakdown in supply chains, lack of demand. Right. You know, and then that turned on a dime right from 2020 to 2021. And, you know, valuations got crazy, unprofitable tech IPOs, SPACs, crypto, you know, all this sort of stuff. And then all of a sudden the Fed comes to this conclusion that inflation is a problem. They signal they're going to start raising interest rates off of a zero interest rate bound.

And all of the most expensive speculative stuff in the market gets hit really hard in 2022. I think the NASDAQ closed down more than 30%. The S&P closed down 27%. But it felt very orderly, right? So interest rates went like this stair step. Stocks, you know what I mean? It was orderly, right? You took a lot of froth out of the market. So my question first is,

is that in that sort of period, in that sort of sell off, were you able to maintain your general bullish view? - 100%. - Okay. - It felt normal to you. - It felt normal to me. This feels, not just not feel normal, this is crazy. I mean, I'm talking like, it's like an investor's like,

Every time I shut my phone off, put it back on, 10 voicemails. Right. This. Wake up in the morning, 40 missed calls. Because the reality is that this is totally different. Because to your point, going to that example, was the government trying to basically burn that whole thing down? Mm-hmm.

And then to the second time, what's the alternative? That's like you being in the ocean. I flip your boat in the middle of the ocean, no life raft. And I'll be like, oh, when you get back to shore, we'll hang out.

That's kind of big tech right now. And look, new CEOs have spoken out because I think they're trying to figure out behind the scenes what they do as well as also like this is... Well, they fear retribution. And that speaks to the whole like from an investor perspective, like how do you play it? Does Apple get an exemption? We'll get to that in a couple minutes. But then I want to say, okay, so I think...

that you were one of the first sell side analysts in late 22 or definitely early 23, because you and I, I think we did a pod back then. Yeah, I remember that. Yeah. Who

really put a flag in the ground and said this generative AI is going to infect every part of the tech market. And there's probably another leg beyond that once. OK, so that was your trade or that was your view. You got very right. You were very right in 23. You're very right in 24. We had those two massive years. And so just give me a sense of like the mindset. What makes me very sad, sad, not even as an analyst,

It's the first time that I've felt in my whole career that US was ahead of China in tech. You know, for so many years, I go to China and I come back and go to Silicon Valley. I'm like, they're just, whether it was like, you know, on the auto side, whether it was on disruptive tech, whether it was on chips. And AI was the first time like we own it. You know what I'm saying? Like from NVIDIA to Microsoft to PoundTier to Autonomous and everything.

The reality is that what this is doing, it's like a Jenga puzzle and you're just... And many companies that I talk to, many buyers...

they're recognized in that over the last week. All right. So let's flash forward. So it's the end of 2024. We're coming into this year to bang up years. It's really hard to find anybody who wants to fade the generative AI trade. Okay. Whether it was Nvidia, whether it was the hyperscalers, whether it was some of these application companies. 325 billion capbacks. Right. And that was confirmed. DeepSeek comes out. All right. So the DeepSeek, we'll get to that in a second. But

- To me and Guy, we're sitting here, we do podcasts every day, we do Fast Money every day. - Of course, yeah. And you guys do Epitaph. - And we're saying, and people are looking at us like we have three fucking heads. We're saying, listen, the pace of this CapEx cannot continue, right? Because if the idea was just kind of run fast, break things, you know what I mean? Don't ask for permission, ask for forgiveness. We know how that ends. I mean, I've been doing this as long as you have. - No, dude, you have been doing it. - I know how it ends.

And so I was early and I'm not going to speak for Guy, but I laid out how this ends. And, you know, we got to deep seek. NVIDIA was the largest market cap company in the world. Three point four trillion dollars in market cap. It sold off 17 percent. But then the analyst community and I'm not going to even speak because I don't really remember where you were in this. They got very convinced very quickly. Oh, this is good for NVIDIA. OK.

All right, so give me your 411 on that. Look, like DeepSeek, add two commas to what they spent on Sixmin. Fine, but it's still two commas less than what we spent over here. And they buy 34,000 next gen NVIDIA hardware and all this stuff that happened when I was in Singapore that came out. My view of DeepSeek is like, it's a model. As the models get cheaper, that's ultimately bullish price.

for AI because when it all comes down to faster adoption but I feel like what it did was it created a shadow and a ghost where it's like dude Chinese they're like MacGyver in our closet two sticks a toothpick a seltzer can they just created this oh my god and you can't fight that ghost because it's there

And I think when it came to the CapEx, CapEx would definitely slow if you think about the next year, 325, and then does it go to 400? Growth rate was decelerating massively. The growth rate was decelerating. But our bull case is like, it's about use cases because we see it like the software use case. What's happening on enterprise, on the consumer side, it's autonomous, it's robotics.

You could have been wrong about some names and the pace, 100%. And right now, we'd be sitting here being like, okay, what's Nvidia baking in relative to next year? You'd be like, I think it's worth $110. I'm like, dude, I think it's worth $180. No, I mean, you've talked for years. But it's all done. You know what I'm saying? Like that whole game is over because basically what's happened here is

It's like the Jenga putt. So now you have to almost like put it back together because so much cat-backs is going to be slowed down. Yeah, but see, that was the thing though, man. Like so a week and a half after or a week after deep seek,

All of a sudden, or days after, you start having all the hyperscalers report. They're trading at all-time highs. They're trading, even Google was trading at a multiple higher than where it had been over the last couple years when we had this bang up two years in the market. And they show a slight decel in revenue growth, and they all stick to or raise their CapEx. And that was it.

And part of the issue, and I've been bringing this up and listen, I am not talking to suppliers in Vietnam and China. But for me, I'm like, I don't see the use cases. I don't see a materializing and all those things that you just mentioned. I said it on Fast Money on our pods every night.

I'll take the over. Whenever you think that's happening, I'll take the over. And so when you think about it, the market's a discounting mechanism, right? At some point, you go from a bubble in sentiment, in my opinion, right, to like the other side of that, right? And then if you overshot to the upside, then you can clearly overshoot to the downside and you cover all these stocks.

But in 2022, when we just talked about that orderly sell off in the market and it did feel orderly, except a handful of the stocks in your coverage, Tesla, Nvidia, Netflix and Meta, they sold off 70%. Now they're up 10x from there, you know, from the lows. But a lot of people and this is what we try to do here. A lot of people make hard

horrible decisions at tops. No one knows it's a top and they make horrible decisions at bottoms, you know? So that's what we try to do. You deal with an institutional client. And we have a big, right. Yeah. So, so, and listen, I,

I believe that you do great work and I believe that you're trying to speak to a broad audience, right? And you do it on TV. You do it with both your retail and investing clients. But what do you think it was that it just infected this kind of mindset among investors where they just couldn't see it any other way? And I'll just tell you, as we get closer to Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, NVIDIA is obviously a month after. Tesla is a disaster. We'll talk about that. I think the margin for error, man, is really, really small. But I don't even know...

I don't even know how to even think about it because the reality is no one's giving guidance. - Are you already getting a sense for that from companies? They're gonna tell you that we're just gonna pull guys. - Literally, I will be shocked if any tech company that has any decent gives guidance. And I think already, I can tell you from an investor perspective, you're basically, June, the June quarter, it's over. No one, everyone's like, it's a toss out.

September is probably a toss. People could agree with this script, but I'm just telling you how many of you. And everyone's like, okay, if there's some normalization, what does 2026 numbers look like? That's how I'm going to value it. You know what I'm saying? My conversations is something like, June, where do you think? It's like, pfft.

It's done. All right. So I want to take it from the micro to the macro. If you feel that way about, let's say, 20 stocks in your coverage, is that fair to say these are 20 of the probably, you know, biggest contributors to S&P 500 earnings, you know, coming into this year, I think the estimate was still for 13% year over year growth. I just checked fact sets earning insight, and I think they have it at about 7% now. So strategists are bringing that down.

If these companies can't guide for Q2, and let's just say there's a really good chance. And they won't guide for the year. Right. Let's just say there was a really good chance that Q1 already fell into recessionary sort of stuff. And I don't think that. You don't. I don't believe that. I think Q1, the actual quarters will be actually pretty good. And then it's just,

Yeah. All right. So then how does your group act in a recession that we're not going to know it's a recession until after it's been declared, but they're going to try, investors are going to sniff it out, I guess. But then you have to break it out to the tariff. And I just keep going. But there's no mulligans in markets. Like that's the one thing that I think is really important is like, okay, I would say to any C-level executive of a Fortune 100 company, I'd say, you got a mulligan right here.

You know what I mean? No, of course. You don't want to kitchen sink it because you don't want sentiment that's really negative just to puke things out. You got to be careful. And you know, it's always like,

Like how many times, like, you know, you'll be in like morning meetings over the years. Like, I think it's baked in. Right. And then next day, down 20%. Right. Well, it actually wasn't baked in. Yeah. But I mean, listen, people want to believe they want to be optimistic. I think market participants, there's such a small percentage of those who are thinking like what could go wrong rather than what could go right. Guy and I are the what could go wrong guys. But that's because we're cynical. But that's also what makes a mark.

A lot of times I love talking to people that disagree with me because I think you get a much better sense of like, you need to understand the markets. You have to understand the flip side of the trade. One thing, and we'll get to some single names and we'll kind of drill down a little bit. You know, I'm in the mindset right now

is that there's very few announcements that could come out of the administration. We just had one yesterday on Wednesday that they basically pushed out for 90 days, something that they instituted a week earlier. And to me, it's like a net-net. It just didn't matter. And now it's just because the bond market basically called their bluff. Yes. And now, if you look at it week over week, the situation with China, and I think you'd agree with me, is much worse, actually, if you think about it. So, like, for instance...

So last time I checked, China doesn't have midterm elections. They play things over 100 years, not one year. Yeah. Before we get to the question I was just going to ask, are you seeing among party lines a level of defensiveness about the policy and what it means for the stock market? I see that maybe on retail markets.

rather than institutional. - Well what about like Ackman? I mean like Ackman was a supporter and then he got all crazy over the weekend and then he got back to being a sycophant, you know what I mean? - But I think if you look like, ultimately to me it's almost like if I just sat here in New York City or San Fran or Marin or wherever, Florida, and basically just viewed things out of my little bubble, to be honest, I'd be more bullish.

Because I wouldn't, it's almost like I kind of, I talk to other people in the financial community. You're like, okay, market's going to work itself out. You know, for the long term, there's a game of poker. Yeah.

So unfortunately slash fortunately, by traveling around the world my whole life, you talk to so many people from around the world, so many people in the supply chain, so many companies, and the more you talk to them over the last week and especially this weekend...

That's what makes you the most negative. - So as negative as you are, part of it has to do with the fact that all of a sudden, all these kind of outward sort of partners, you know what I mean, whether they're allies or adversaries, they're looking at what's going on and they've gotten considerably

like negative they've gotten very negative about what's going on here and you can't turn that on a dime right because we've lost confidence by those folks you know what i mean in in the way in which we've done business for 40 years but the other thing being who's the when companies report earnings it's companies that spend money software if those capex purchases and big slow slow hiring

What do you think that does? Two months ago, and I'm just going to hold your feet to the fire, and I don't know, and you tell me if I'm wrong, but two months ago, if we were having this conversation and I said to you, the likelihood in a difficult sort of environment, like economic environment, not this, you know what I mean? Just like kind of slowing growth. If you thought that there is a chance that the hyperscalers would pull back on those CapEx numbers that they gave to you.

No. That's what, all right. Dan, I would say. You say no fucking way. Dan, I would tell you like, no, no impossible way. And to be, I'm like, ironclad cement done this, this.

All right. So, no. So, I mean, that was kind of my view because we're sitting there, Guy and I, and we're scratching our heads. Why is this supposed sanctity of these CapEx numbers? It was never, it was, they were never going to change. All right. But the argument that I was making is that in 2022, when, you know what changes? When your stock starts careening lower, right? That's one thing. And then you start seeing, you know, some of your, you know, customers kind of pulling back and pushing out, you know, this and that or whatever. And, you know, in 2022, when Meta,

Okay, which was a darling story. - That was like three Q quarter. - Correct, when they basically, the year of rationalization and they started firing people. That was the bottom. So if you had that playbook from 2022 and you're meta, okay, and you were kind of the darling of this or the outperformer of this last call it six to nine months or even longer, you know, the idea of pulling back on $25 billion in CapEx,

It was all bullshit anyway. It's not like they were writing checks right there and now. You know what I mean? So to me, that was just an easy one. But I think here, and I totally understand that comparison. That's a good comparison. The difference now is like it's almost like the whole system has been turned upside down. By the policy you're saying, just in the last month. And you see it, whether it's like the dollar, gold, oil, this.

You know, whether it was like we were on some black swan event before tenure and maybe Diamond basically had Trump basically take away from the cliff. And I think, but here's the thing. Guess who's caught in the middle? Guess who's caught in the storm?

Yeah. Well, they're the ones. They're paying the tax. They're paying the tax. And they have to pass it through or eat it on their margin. It's that simple. It's that simple. And one thing is interesting. So CPI came out this morning and it was cooler than expected, right? And no one cared because if you look at the reasons why it was cooler, it was less spending on consumer electronics, less spending on airfare, less spending on a whole host of consumer things. But then now it'd be like looking...

that number would be like looking at your car in a picture, but yet since then you've already crashed it and now it's in the shop. It's almost like-- - But we had Tom Lee about a month ago on the pod from Funstrat, I know you know Tom. And he does really great work and he's really transparent. He said to Guy and me, and I thought this was interesting 'cause I hadn't heard anyone say this in this environment. I wanna say this was probably early March is my guess.

And he said tariffs will not, and no one knew back then what the tariff situation was going to be. But he said tariffs will actually be deflationary because it will have consumers pull back. But that's the, but the thing is that if this whole thing was done the right way,

If this was done in an orderly, not chaotic way, then it's like negotiate 15%, 20%. You get better deals. Like you said, it becomes deflationary. It raises the price, more efficiency. Yeah. But essentially what happens is you've almost broke, at least in the near term, the system.

to try to, it's almost like you burnt your house down to meet the firefighters. - I like that, I've heard that a little bit. - No, but you-- - No, no, but no, well, I've heard the other analogy is like Trump lit the fire and then shows up with a fire truck, you know, sort of thing, and then takes the wing. - But guess who's in the house? It's American consumers and it's American companies that ultimately suffer, and that's why in Beijing,

It keeps going back to like, I could tell you in Asia, it was always like ABC, anything but China. Like when you're in sovereign funds, you're throughout Hong Kong, then all of a sudden, but why was the reason you couldn't invest in China? The main reason, you weren't in the party. You didn't know over a week.

Now that's part of the problem is that like, and I see so many international funds that I talk to, where's money gone? Europe?

you know, in terms of those markets. Yeah, and money, not just stocks, but like, you know, buns and gilts and, you know, Swiss franc. And all right, I'm going to run through, I love that conversation, by the way. And I love the fact that I know that you don't mind being called out when you think you get something wrong, whether it's a narrative, whether it's an individual name. And I, no, but,

I appreciate that and my job is to push back. By the way, I'm wrong all the fucking time, okay? So like, you know. - But you also, you have, but like that's also why like in this situation, I easily would, I could have taken the approach, does everything start a week ago once they did the chart that live in the infamy? I could have been like, ah, this is, it's gonna be negotiated. It's just near term weakness. It's not structural. These are our names.

Groundhog, same thing. Yeah. But that's not how we do it. People have known us. We talk the way we see it. And the reality is the world changed once they did that.

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All right, let's run through a handful of names here. I think these are widely held names that people care about. They're also some of the biggest ones. All right, let's hit NVIDIA really quickly here. I think it's down like 35% from those recent highs. It's down about 20% on the year, obviously, and had a huge year last year.

It was up 180% or something like that. It represented 25% of the S&P 500, 25% gains. Right now, consensus for earnings and for sales growth for the current fiscal year, 2026, is basically, let's call it 57% for both. It trades at 23.5 times earnings.

earnings and numbers are coming down. Why? That's what I'm going to get to. All right. And it's trading at 13 times sales. It looks even cheaper for 2027, 23% expected earnings and sales growth trading at 19 times and 10 and a half times sales. All right.

No one is willing to commit to right now. Most of the people that I read, that I talk to, they still think that actually numbers could be too low. All right. You saw Taiwan semis results this morning, and it probably has a lot to do with the fact of people trying to do stuff before tariffs.

Let's talk about Nvidia right here. Where do you think numbers go and where is the appropriate multiple? - Numbers come down 10 to 12%. - Is that the way you're thinking about it across the board for your mega cap structure? - I think mega cap, I'm thinking like 10 to 12%. Some could be 15%. Some of the software, cybersecurity,

5% to 7%, 8% because also those are AR models and some of those. But that, to me, that's sort of the way to, as a baseline, that's the way to go. So if someone says, because look, NVIDIA, the whole thing was like, now there, let's call it maybe like

they had so much upside in terms of pipeline and everything. So relative, like they might not be as impact because they were just a beaten raise, even though. - Yeah, but China's a problem. Last year, China was basically 13% of their sales and it was $17 billion or something like that. And these H20s, which are shitty chips relative to what anything's out there, supposedly there's like-- - Jensen's not going to Mar-a-Lago on a weekend.

if things are... But that's so bullshit. That's the point, is if Jensen goes and he bends the knee and he gets some sort of exclusion, it's like mob boss shit, man. But it's not changing. Yeah. Because, okay, you get to about some of the exemptions or whatever, but their customers have slowed down and stopped. Correct. You know what I'm saying? It doesn't... I get it. And that's the thing. It's not about exemptions.

That's one part of it, but it's about their customers slowing things down. - Right, all right, so just in Nvidia really quickly, the high intraday in January is 153 bucks, right now it's trading at $108. The April 2024 low,

okay, was basically, I'm looking at this as $76. That would be a 50% decline from those recent highs. I think it's going there. And I'm not saying that for rights. What we keep telling everyone is 80 and 90 is the table pound area. Okay, that's helpful. Till it gets there, it's going to be.

So if earnings are going to come down, let's call it 12% on the high end, right? You know what I mean? So you're getting to a point where at $80, then it's just kind of, it's trading literally at 15 times or something like that. So what we're doing is we're giving people levels. Yeah. No, that makes sense. I'd buy it at $80. How's that? Okay. Because also you can just sit here and be like, oh, I don't know. Yeah, I'd like it. I'd buy it at $75.

Exactly. Okay. But that's where I see that one. All right. I got that. All right. Let's do Apple really quickly. We kind of laid out the issues there. They had an exemption in the trade war back in 18 and 19. Tim Cook has already said they're going to spend $500 billion over the next four years. It seemed kind of cynical to me in many ways. I hate those next four years sort of thing, dear leader. You know what I mean? That sort of thing. We know that they're, what are they going to build here?

AI servers and the IMF. Why would a company like Apple, when they know the cost of compute, why would you go and create that sort of infrastructure? So you get a Hallmark card from Trump on the exemption. But they're never going to do it, in my opinion. So Apple has totally fucked up Apple intelligence. They basically have no strategy other than your iPhone lights up with a freaking rainbow every time you do a search. That's Apple intelligence. Okay. Okay.

What do you do with this one? I mean, like seriously, this is trading at 30 times still. Yeah, but to me, Apple is one where the reason that that's, and that remains like a name that I would just envision. 26 times, by the way. Okay, in the last week it's come in like four turns. But that's one because of the free cash flow. Remember, we're going on almost like you're going to now start to basically look at like, you know, over the next year, what free cash flow and earnings could look like.

you know, iPhone 17 in theory, you know, that's going to be from an Apple intelligence perspective, what's going to ultimately get pushed out. But definitely Apple intelligence. So there's no reason to upgrade your iPhone. But look, I like, because of the tariffs, it's almost like you're now, I, we tried to like, we basically took a stab when we cut numbers by 11% and we basically said, okay, if you cut numbers by 11%, like where could the stock go? Like, is it like,

240, 250, 260. Like, if it goes below 200, you're trying to basically find levels, and that's sort of how we're navigating Apple here. All right, so Apple has, in my opinion, two issues because I think it will be the last battle fought in this trade war. It's not going to be something...

no company is more impacted other than tesla ish no but i think apple is much i will i agree with that but we'll get to tesla because i think there's some similarities because i think nationalistic tendencies are going to take and when you have retaliatory who the two companies it's apple and tessa byd over tesla and huawei over apple yes 100 and that's a theme that's been building for a few years now because of to what you said the innovation there relative to here

Tesla's and iPhones have been evolutionary and what BYD and Huawei has been able to do with their own tech has kind of been revolutionary over the last couple of years. You agree with that? No, of course I agree with that. But what I also would tell you is that going back to the whole US-China, that narrative in a twilight zone

has been accelerated by our government. - Right. - I get it. But here's the other thing, even in this environment, iPhones, which I believe are discretionary if you're upgrading every year, not if you're upgrading every three years. - And then you have a recessionary environment and people, of course. - Correct, so that's what I mean from a discretionary, you know, Teslas, even with the credits, are more expensive than most cars. - And the cost too, because iPhones, they're gonna be $2,200. - Yeah.

- All right, so where does Apple become a table pounder to you? It's trading at $190, it's down from $260. - I mean, we basically said below 170 is where you really start to be aggressive. - And 170, by the way, is the 52-week low, not too different than what we saw, we just talked about Nvidia. Down there at 170, you would have

a 35% peak to drop decline. But again, this is not a point, you're not gonna be able to pinpoint any of it. - No, you're not gonna be able to, but we're just trying to be like, would I own Apple today at this level for the next year, assuming that the near term? Yeah. But you're trying to give people, the main thing now is like, it's not just about like base case, we have base case price start. You're trying to give people levels where it's like, in this volatile market,

if stocks get to this level they become i wouldn't say generational but they become new levels i mean like i believe that these are going to be the companies that lead us out whatever malaise that we're in i you know maybe one or two fall by the wayside maybe it's like a broadcom which the asic thing got way over excited last year into this year and you know that sort of thing um microsoft is interesting to me early beneficiary of

of the you know kind of hyperscaler build out relationship with open AI it was always trading at a bit of a premium to a bunch of the other mag seven we need to go over price target on app okay on Microsoft so that stock made its all-time high in the first half of 24 and at some point I think people sniffed out the fact that the open a relationship wasn't nearly as impactful as they thought that said they didn't actually spend a lot

for it but as it was fraying they continue to build out their cloud infrastructure and maybe they were going to find a whole host of other you know customers and enterprise they're going to be the one that disproportionately benefits but the stock interestingly while it topped out on a relative relative basis really sucked versus a lot of the other ones over the last year it's only down 22 percent from those all-time highs made mid last year make a case

You just took down numbers. Is there a scenario where this one acts better on the way out? I think this one acts much better than NVIDIA and Apple because of the... Because even though you have some capbacks, it's because of the tariff exposure. And that's the one I... Because of where they play on the software, but I actually view it as actually more of like a defense...

I view them, Oracle, IBM, we've been telling our clients, you sell semis or whatever, you own a light and I'm going to send you a software. You own cybersecurity software. I feel like cybersecurity software, those are going to be the defensive sectors. I think Microsoft, that's one that sticks out. All right, let's talk about Google for a second here. Here's one that since the launch of BARD two years ago, it's just been in the penalty box. A bunch of disasters, Gemini,

you know, I think of this, forget valuation, we know it's cheap, maybe it's cheap for a reason, that ultimately if they can ever get Gemini right across their platforms and they have seven that have over a billion users, they have three with over three billion, you know, that sort of thing, there's probably some upside there except for the fact the, you know, the headwinds to their search business because of, you know, so talk to me a little bit, the push and pull there, and where are you right now on Google? Yeah.

I mean, like, look, some of the parts, that's one where, like, if they just find lightning in a bottle in, like, one of three areas, it changes the game. Are you worried about their search business? I'm not worried. I'd say, like, you think about it.

But it's not one like I think near term that it's a huge worry in the business. I think longer term, if they don't get their act together, then it does become more. Let's talk about Meta because this is one and we talked about it. The spend from the metaverse was the thing that sent the stock down 70% in 2022. They rationalized costs. They rejiggered things. They took some of the expense that they were spending on metaverse. They rejiggered it towards meta AI. They were considered a

beneficiary because they were serving better ads, monetizing it better. They didn't build out the cloud infrastructure, right, of the hyperscalers. Where are you now? This is the best acting on a relative basis down 7%. That's another like defensive, not tariff exposed. You're not worried about the valuation. You could have like digital advertising. You could definitely have some softness there, right, in terms of just given what happens in terms of overall spending environment.

But that's not, it's almost like when we break these out, Microsoft Meta,

are much more defensible than Apple and Nvidia relative to where we are. Any quick thoughts on Lama? They just rolled out Lama 4. They're a year behind. I mean, look, they're... But they're not, like, from a consumer standpoint, I mean, they have, like, 3.5 billion monthly actives, and they have that little circle in there. No one's using that. When you go into the technology... Yeah, it's not great. It's not great. I mean, the point is, like, this is very important that they start to... You think they get it right or no?

I think it's going to be tough for them to fully... I mean, if you look at just like Chachi, BT, and where everything's headed, it's like...

That kind of open source, closed source. All right, let's talk Amazon. Okay, so there's an AWS component. There is the fact that they've been building a model, but they've been investing in Anthropic and they've been using Cloud and all that sort of stuff. And I think Amazon obviously has been the clear winner in the cloud space, except that Microsoft's caught up a lot of share. Amazon was in the penalty box. I want to go back to early 24, 23.

because of the decelerating growth in AWS. - Yeah, exactly, yeah. They also felt like they were nowhere in AWS. - So this is one where it feels like retail, the retail business could be a problem in this environment. And then AWS and maybe, you know, it just gets stuck a little bit. You're gonna see less demand for compute and they don't have a model that's that differentiated or anything like that. How are you feeling about Amazon? - I mean, you brought up, I mean, I'd rather,

I think Meta and Microsoft are better positioned than Amazon because of the consumer piece. I do think on cloud it's pretty resilient, so that's a defensive area.

And the advertising piece in some of the parts could give you, I think upside is probably not factored in here. But I like it. I mean, outside just the consumer, and Jassy talked about it on CBC, like outside of just the consumer exposure, and that's, look, again, that's going to be one that, it's going to be volatile as that plays out. You'd rather own Walmart, I'm assuming. I know you don't cover Walmart. No, I mean, I just think, I'd rather own Amazon,

just because of the AWS piece, but it's almost like-- - That's optionality is what you're saying. - But it's almost like AWS becomes, that becomes almost, it goes from an asset to some extent a little bit of a negative just given some of the spending environment. - All right, last one, the big Kahuna, that's Tesla. I mean, I'm just gonna be really frank, anyone who listens to this podcast, watch this fast. - I mean, you've talked about it for decades.

I think the fundamentals are so bad. I think it's one of the worst mega cap fundamentals, and it's been that way for actually three and a half years. They've been in this trade war. I think Elon has made some really forget about his behavior over the last year and a half. I think the price war and what he thought about how this elasticity sort of situation, he's been dead wrong.

He's been dead wrong about, you know, things like hybrid. You know, if you think about BYD and China, they only make...

full electronic and BEVs, okay? So battery operated. And they have just taken, basically overtaken Tesla in deliveries. They have far more cars. They refresh them quicker. They're cheaper. They have higher ranges and they charge much faster. And they're going to be subsidized by the government for the most part. Look, the reality is, and you know, being bullish Tesla for a decade and,

But we've talked about it. Like our biggest frustration. Hey, look, and I mean, you've talked about it for a long time.

For me, it's just really more about the brand issue, what he's done. I mean, I think there's- That's something that's been building for you for a couple of years. Look, I think it's 20% permanent destruction in Europe. Most of your peers basically, though, think it's like mid-single digits at best, like brand destruction. And remember, I'm- As far as demand. And I've been probably the big, you know, Jonas, I mean, the biggest support. But I'm telling you right now, in Europe, it's-

The brand destruction is real. In the U.S., the brand destruction has been growing. And my whole thing is that this, you talk about self-created, like I just continue to say he needs to leave the government because the longer he stays there, the brand destruction continues to increase. See, the difference between me and you is that

I'm more bullish on the view of like, when it comes to AI, I believe the holy grail is physical AI. That's my, so when it comes to like- So full self-driving, robo-taxi, and optimist, they're all built on physical. Yeah. But it goes back to like NVIDIA. Like you talk about use cases, you haven't seen them. Like I think like the holy grail for AI, and I mean you've talked about it for even a few years, it's about autonomous and robotics. Right.

Now, if you weren't bullish on autonomous robotics-- - You should not own this stock. - You wouldn't own this stock. So to me, that's,

90% of the value. But that's the thing I just take issue with is like, you know, there's gravity in markets, right? You know that, right? And so ultimately, you know, when the rubber hits the road, you know, in an environment like this is a great example is like, I'm taking the over on RoboTaxi and robotics. Why? Last year when they've held events for these, RoboTaxi was a two-seated cab.

Like, are you kidding me? Like there's you. No one would call up. It actually goes against what you're thinking about is like an alternative to you don't even drive. Can I ask you a question? Can I ask you a question? Yeah.

- So let's say it's two years now. Would you ever take a ride in a Rover Taxi or a Cybertruck? - I've been in Waymos, I love 'em. - Yeah, exactly. - It's amazing. I mean, like, I would probably not from a brand perspective because if Waymo is gonna be competing with-- - But Waymo are $240,000 cars that can scale.

I mean, I well, I agree with that, by the way, and I've been in those Jaguars and all the lighter. And they're only in four. But I want to take the over. And when his vision, you know, I know Robo taxing over on cameras and I power this there or whatever. I just don't think that's funny. But if I'm sure when is it if unsupervised FSD hits in Austin in June? Yeah. Would that change your view? It's not hitting there. I'll just.

just, you know what I mean? Like that June event is gonna get pushed out to October like it did last summer, right? I'm just telling you. And he's sitting in the White House and he made that bet because he thought that he could get rid of the regulation that's stopping full self-driving and then that's a next step towards, you know, Robotech. Robotexy, the other thing is you talk about, you know, the cost about scaling Waymo.

he's talking about using consumers' cars as part of the fleet for Robotex. That's never happening. They need depots. They need cleaning. They need charging. I mean, the list goes on and on. You think consumers are going to be doing that? Remember that company Toro where you could like, that thing is a zero. You know what I mean? So I guess my point is, I'm discounting anything out of that guy's mouth because as long as he's been running this company, if you had done that,

If you got like a million bucks discounting every major, you know what I mean, thing, you would not have to work anymore. You know what I mean? So as the technology becomes that much more complicated, it's one thing to build a fully electric car from scratch, like all the power to him. At this point, he is losing share in one of their most important markets outside of the U.S., which is China. I don't think they ever get that back. I think Europe could be screwed for them. Well, China...

I wouldn't say that that's – I do actually think China – this is a very important – with the refresh to see these next like three, six months in terms of some sort of rebound there. But look, Dan, I – look, I mean we're – like we're obviously – we're bullish on Tesla in terms of the longer term. We disagree on that.

But my issue has really been more the brand destruction that's self-created and that's been a huge. Because when we did cuts and tests, it's like $2, could it be less? You cut numbers 10, 15%. You're trying to basically handicap where you think ultimately deliveries can go. Yeah.

Well, you know, just like Apple, I think you're going to, like not you, but I think, you know, they're going to basically be flatted down for the second year in a row as far as deliveries for iPhones. I think it's pretty clear based on that massive miss of,

for Q1 deliveries, that Q2 is also going to be a disaster. You know what I mean? If you just think of some of the markets where they were expecting to get back with Juniper and all this crap, it's not happening. And then the back half of the year, like who knows? Like they could come in at like 1.6 million deliveries. We went to 1.7. Look at you. Look at you. Consensus is still like 1.9 or something or two, isn't it? Like I think it is. I'm playing in the Masters.

No, I'm saying like they're not one nine. So yeah, it's by like one seven. Yeah. Listen, I'm not trying to make you too negative on anything because I think your tone, I think your tone, you've set the right tone for this environment. And I think there's still going to be a lot of folks who are holding out that yesterday was a precursor to Trump. You know what I mean? Having some grand deal. He and she are going to meet in Saudi Arabia and they're going to have a big handshake and everything's going to be great. You know what I mean? Yeah.

That's not happening anytime soon. And if it does, all the power to him. But I just don't think the damage that's been created on the global economy and the uncertainty of us as a leader in American exceptionalism is going to be the sort of thing that leads us into this next, you know what I mean? It's the unintended consequences. Yeah.

But you know what's funny? I was saying this long before Trump ever took Musk under his wing or vice versa, if you will, is that, you know, Musk plays out of the Trump playbook. And, you know, it did not end well for him in his last administration. It actually ended very badly. If you think about Jam six and all that sort of stuff.

And I actually think that Musk is going to have a similar sort of crescendo as Trump did. If it's the same playbook, you know what I mean? And the same bullshitter, like sooner or later, the bullshit catches up to you, man. It's just that simple. And you've been around this planet for as long as I have. And look at, you know, you can only push that. But the other problem, too, is that it's become a political symbol. Yeah. If you're anti-Doge, Musk, Trump, tariffs, there's...

That's the way that you're. - The irony is that, listen, if Musk can fix this tariff situation, you saw the battle with Navarro and everything. Listen, you and I could argue about, I feel like we're on the same page, actually. You know what I mean? But like, I think I'm giving you a hard time though. Am I giving you a hard time? - Not at all. And to be honest, the reason I like, I think you do such a good job, 'cause like I watch all your stuff, you bring out conversations that are very important for the listeners.

Because it's like, instead of just sitting here doing the typical cookie cutter, I think it's, and I think actually it's more important than ever that people listen to things like this. But you said it 25 minutes ago. Because of what's going on. You need to know, if you're bullish, you want to know the bear case. And you want to have intelligent conversations. And you want all the inputs. And you need to know levels where in this vowel, where those are levels where it's like, okay, table pounder. Well, listen, I think what you've done with a lot of your major coverage is, you know, you could be wrong.

You know what I'm saying? By lowering estimates across the board, 12% or this or whatever, you could be wrong about all that stuff. The likelihood at this point is not particularly great. You know what I mean? So you're helping from a sentiment standpoint, you're helping to guide your clients. But then 25 years, like the way that I've built my reputation with institutions around the world, it's not in good times. Good times like anyone could do.

It's when times like this, when I talk about 10, 12 hours, whatever, it's like it's trying to navigate through storms and give some sort of flashlight in the dark alley. Yeah, and by the way, if I'm a glass half empty sort of guy, and maybe I'm playing a persona, I'm the heel. I don't think so, actually. Well, you know, I started out. To be honest with you, in years of being with you,

It's funny. I actually kind of, you say glass half empty. I actually think you're more, much more, I wouldn't say glass half full, but you're somewhere in the middle now versus. You're being very generous. One thing I'll say, let's just say I go into a period. I find you less negative than I think you, at least from my own view. Yeah, I mean, listen, what I'm trying to do is figure out

how this universal sentiment, whether it's bullish or bearish, could be wrong. OK. And so one thing I will not do is be pressing near the lows. You know what I mean? Like, it's just it's not. But like in 2022 in the fall, I was like, this is way overdone. You know what I mean? It felt a lot like in 2002, you know, every rally got sold to the sentiment. Why are you why are you bringing me back? No, I know. But Amazon and Yahoo were like $3 stocks

I actually remember Oracle. I remember having conversations. They're like, look, $7, I wouldn't own it, but if it goes to $6, I don't... Like...

I remember the same thing with Yahoo. So I guess my point is, is like, I think those seven stocks that we just went through, five of them in three years will still be the largest market cap companies in the world. They will still be the most innovative companies in the world. And you don't even have to get all seven of them right. You know what I mean? Like you can go in and buy the mag seven right now. I think in three years, you're going to massively outperform the market. Like, you know what I mean? So again, and I also tell them, don't like,

don't let this volatility like you, like you totally shake, buckle the seatbelt and understand we're going to evolve for like a few months here. So just don't let it shake you out. Yeah. All right. Well, I think a lot of the damage in those names has probably been done like two thirds of it, if you will. You know what I mean? Assuming that this is not going to be a massively protracted, uh, trade war, a massively protracted, um,

recession we haven't had a protracted recession really since the start of this you know since the early 2000s or whatever so again dan i really appreciate you going on and it's really fun i mean it really was the best part of my day here no and vice versa this is i was like really looking forward to it and the fact that you know obviously it's been it's a dark time to be doing but i think it's great and hopefully the listeners get gleaned some information from let's do it again really soon no seriously all right thanks a lot okay thank you