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One o'clock on the East Coast, Christmas Eve, Eve, Guy Adami, back from Parts Unknown, a recently haircutted Dan Nathan. Your hair looks really good. Thank you. I appreciate it. We missed you. Did they put a product in it or no? They put a little product. It's my barber, Eddie. He's like when he paints his masterpiece every couple weeks. You know what I mean? You see what's going on here. Guy, we missed you. You said Parts Unknown, but if anybody was looking at,

your Twitter, which Amanda told me this morning, I don't have Twitter, that you posted a picture of the Matterhorn, the Matterhorn in Switzerland. Tell us about that for a second before we get into stuff. Yes, not the Matterhorn at Disney World, although apparently there is a ride with the same name. But, you know, that part of the Alps has some of the largest peaks in Europe. I think there are 29 or so that are anywhere from 10,000 to 12,000 feet

tall, which is remarkable. When you see the Matterhorn that close, I mean, it is truly a breathtaking mountain. Sometimes it's in snow covered. Sometimes that, look at that. That was a picture that I sent. I mean, that's, that's pretty cool. Yeah. I mean, that is legit picture. I mean, that's not in what do they call it? That's that AI thing that

people. It's not the AI. It's beautiful, man. I was in Switzerland once. I was in Verbier and to ski. This is probably like 20 some years ago. And it's a beautiful place. The people are very peaceful. It was nice. They're very neutral about things, guy. They're not taking sides. A couple of things happened in the risk reversal world last week. So you were in Switzerland. It was also your birthday. We wished you, you know, an absentee birthday. And then also, I

Amanda filled in one day for you. Love market call. People went berserk. She was amazing. Um, our main man, Bill Hockman. I saw him do standup. Yeah, he was amazing. He really was. I brought three friends, uh,

they loved it. So Hockman and then Jacob, okay. Jacob got really close to that Florida Panthers, Stanley cup guy the other day, check it out on his Instagram. Well, you know, lastly, I heard Timmy in Switzerland took a few, took a few runs in, on the, on the slopes there. Yeah. Timmy, Timmy skied in San Moritz, which was also beautiful. And he skied at the Matterhorn in Zermatt,

which was very cool. And I tell you what, they know how to do things out there because you ski on the East Coast, you're taking your life in your hands. Out there, things are a bit more civilized. But it was a great trip. But you mentioned a lot happened in terms of those things. Also, a lot happened just in terms of the market. You obviously saw a day, and I know you guys addressed it, where the VIX, I think, got almost up to 25. And

And you're seeing this yield move, which I guarantee you addressed a number of times with Liz and Danny and Amanda and whoever else was on. But, you know, the fact that yields are once again approaching 4.6% in a 10 year, you know, I think it's a story. And look, it's not a story today in terms of what the market's doing. I think the S&P is up.

20 handlers or so having been down earlier in the day. But, you know, this is one of those odd weeks. Next week will be similar. But you can't discount the fact that, you know, the move in interest rates, I think, is catching a lot of people off guard. Yeah, I guess the biggest take is

away is that over the weekend, it seemed like people trying to kind of parse out what happened on Friday after what happened on Thursday, right? So we had that bounce back. And the idea was, okay, if we have a cooler PCE, then maybe the Fed can get back to that kind of

rate cutting cycle. And so, again, the CME Fed Funds tracker didn't move a whole heck of a lot guy. If you look at the January sort of meeting, it's a near guarantee that it's going to be at the same rate with 4.5%.

on the upper bound. And then when you look out a little bit to the March meeting, it's a bit more balanced, right? It's 55%. And that's the number that we're going to keep a close eye on if you think about it, right? So there you go. It's 55-45. But to your point about the 10-year yield, it's up, what, five basis points today. And it feels like it wants to take out that high from a couple

days ago, we had Peter Bookbar of Bleakley Advisors on the Friday on the Tape podcast, and I asked him the question. I basically said to him, Peter, what do you think the chances is that the 10-year treasury yield gets above 5%, establishes a new range up there? And I was using it as a juxtaposition to last time we went to 5%, if you want to pull this out to a two-year chart, we just kissed it.

right and guys like carter braxton worth came on and said you know this mantra of higher for longer and this and that or whatever and this and you see what happened there went from five percent down to what 380 or something like that it did make lower lows earlier this year but here we are i guess that 475 level on a technical perspective is probably what we're paying attention for right now but you think we're going higher what are the conditions guy that makes the 10-year go higher even if

we see Fed funds rate just kind of cool out in and around this 4.5%. I think that's all fair. I think this incoming administration, we've talked about it. It's not political. Listen, by the way, probably could have made the same case if the Democrats had won. You could have made a similar case for interest rates. But I think that's part of it is the new administration, number one. The amount of issuances out there that are going to come due early in 2025 is a big part of it as well.

And I think the market's just taking a look at debt levels and demanding a higher rate of interest to buy said debt. So I think it's that. And, you know, you mentioned Friday seemed to be a tame number in terms of inflation, but

It's clearly, in my opinion, or the pundits will say otherwise. And obviously, this current administration will say otherwise, that they're winning the battle. The battle's not being won at all. The battle's being fought in a major way. And I think it's finding itself, you know, the real battle lines are being drawn in terms of the bond market. Now, this is, by the way, the TPI bond.

if you pull a tlt chart up over the same duration one thing that i said for a while that i think we're going to trade down to and this might be easier to see we're going to trade down the levels that we saw back in october which is probably 82 and a half or thereabouts and if we were to get there it's going to get to the levels that you and peter addressed last week sort of that i don't know 485 to 5 and

Depending how it trades once and if we get there, then we're going to see. Is it going to bounce off that and make a double bottom? Or is it just going to go knifing through and watch yields sort of not cascade, but sort of elevate higher? And I think that's what's going to wind up happening. We had a question I see that just flew across.

the bottom and it went away. I don't know if it's up there again, but we can address it. But in the meantime, let's look at the S&P chart because, you know, the sub channel that we've been in last week, sell off. Oh, yes. For more, Amanda. That's from yes. And that will happen in 2025. Fernando, we promise.

We're right in the middle of the range here. And you probably did something with Carter last week that showed this, again, this channel that we're in. We're right in the middle of the channel. Stands to reason that we pause here, which we are. I still think we're going to go and look at the 150-day moving average. Probably comes in around 5,200 or so.

And we'll see, but we just wanted to illustrate this channel still intact, nothing's really changed. - Yeah, so Guy, that 56.54 is 150 day, it lines up right with the uptrend that we see to the downside. And so, you would have thought that if we had one day of follow through after that Thursday, where we saw VIX up to 28, you could have seen this thing maybe going from that 6,200 level all the way down to maybe 5,700, 5,650, finding some support.

There, but it didn't happen. I want to just quickly go, Guy, let's say if they can move this. Did I say 50? I'm sorry. I apologize. 5,600. Yeah, sorry. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I just want to go to, let's say, a shorter term chart here. Maybe we could look at like a one month chart in the S&P 500 because I think you and I will probably be in agreement that between now and Jan 1, there's not a whole heck of a lot.

that's going to happen. I do think that, you know, the reaction to the Fed was interesting because we did have an options expiration, right? So when I look at this, right, and I see this, so we closed on the low on Thursday, on Friday, or I'm sorry, on Wednesday. And then on Thursday, we opened up, but then closed on the low again. Then we had a lower open, okay, on, so you see that

on friday um but look at those ticks so the ticks to the left for the people who are trying to play along at home you know that's the opening and maybe amanda can kind of put yeah there you go and then the tick on the right is the close and the line is the range for the day so one of the things that you know you just looked at that if that um

If that Friday move, you know, continue to go lower, you're heading back to that 5650. I mean, like, because then you're getting a, you know, a handful of lower closes and that sort of thing. So just general weakness. So I think your point today is like, yeah, it's flattish. You know, we're down 20 handles. We're up 20 handles overnight in the futures. When I looked before I went to bed, you know, we were up like 40 bips on the S&P guy in the futures. And so I don't know. It seems like that this is likely to be the situation up or down 1% between now and the end of the year.

The other thing I think is interesting is what's been going on in semiconductors. And we NVIDIA'd to death. By the way, Danny Moses and I did a mailbag. A lot of questions around NVIDIA, we addressed them. That will drop on Friday in your favorite podcast store. But with that said, XNVIDIA, some of these names, and I know you addressed it last week. For example, Micron.

has been trading horribly. And obviously you had that huge downdraft in Micron last week. And for all the things that I've gotten wrong, Micron, I think, Dan, is one we've done a really good job with. And I remember it was a couple quarters ago when the stock, I think, went from sort of 93 to about 115 or so, and there was a lot of enthusiasm around it.

And we both looked at each other and said, look, it was an okay quarter, but it didn't really, I don't think it, it didn't necessitate or warrant the move that we saw to the upside. And I thought it was going to be short-lived and turned out it was and it pulled back. But this recent news really has to have you questioning. Now, you can draw a horizontal line across these bottoms from August and say, we're at support and I would agree with that. But man, oh man, there's clearly something amiss here at Micron. Yeah.

Yeah, equally important is like you go to that September low and you do a trend line and you see that go right through the gap. You see it rejected at the moving average at about 110 or so. And so to me, that gap, no, a little lower. Yeah, there you go. That gap.

and then the stop where it is. I mean, they're equally important kind of support lines in my opinion. So let's see what happens there. I wanna pull up a Dell chart, same time period, and I think you might recognize something here. Very similar sort of chart, except that Dell's move, you know what I mean, off those recent lows from a few months back was, you know, it was much greater, right? If you just think about that move from, you know, what is that, like 90-some bucks up to 150, and then you see that break if you wanna draw,

An uptrend there, you see what's going on from those summer lows. Right. And so, you know, some bad technical things setting up. If you just want to pull up the NVIDIA for a second, because it's up 3% today, Broadcom is up five and change percent today. So you look at that and you say to yourself, OK, it hasn't made a lot of progress.

you know since the summer but it's kind of hanging in there what does that mean well it means that its relative performance to almost everything else is very poor right as the nasdaq and the s p have been making new highs but then if you look at that 150-day moving average it's held it like a what guy it's held it like a what boss it's held it like a boss so you know this has been a stock if we want to pull this out to like three years or something like that is betting against consolidations over the last two and a half years has been a bad trade

It's been a bad way to trade this stock. And then lastly, Guy, before you get in here, let's look at the Taiwan Semi chart because this is one today that it just looks like a monster. This thing has shown really good relative strength. Again, it hasn't made some – it's basically lagged a little bit here. It's been consolidating. But this thing looks like it wants to break out a little bit. Thoughts on just the whole semi-complex away from NVIDIA? Well,

Well, Taiwan Semi is the right name to bring up. It's up 5% today. And it really, you know, you've had some pullbacks along the way, but, you know, seemingly, I think we're within earshot of an all-time high in this stock, which I think, Dan, you probably know better than I do, but it's like 212 and a half. So you can make a comparison.

compelling argument around Taiwan Semi, but you can make equally compelling arguments for the downside around a handful of different names, Qualcomm being one of them. We just mentioned Micron, which is sort of similar. I think Broadcom, we've done a great job, but that move we saw last week

I don't know necessarily if that move was justified. I mean, that was a crazy move. I know a lot of analysts got on the back of it. Again, Broadcom's been a name that we have liked, but that might have exhausted itself as well. I'm glad you mentioned NVIDIA. We'll just talk about it again. Yeah, it's bouncing today. But since the day after earnings, obviously, it hasn't traded particularly well, which leads us to the SMH, which I do think is a pretty interesting chart here.

you know, this uptrend has been in place in terms of the SMH. It's going to look very similar to Nvidia basically. But here we are and you know, we're right at that 50 day 150 day moving average effectively right at this trend line effectively. Something's got to give here. So we'll see, you know, if Taiwan semi holds in, it's going to be tough for this thing to break. But if for whatever reason that starts to roll, given the weakness we've seen in Nvidia, some of the other names, this is going to be challenged as well. Yeah. You know, listen,

you can go through all the names in there but at the end of the day it's nvidia and it's taiwan semi right and so you know you look at this thing how much it came off of its uh highs in july we know that nvidia sold off 30 some percent until its lows in august so the fact that this thing has gone sideways despite some of these huge moves we just talked about taiwan semi about to make a new high uh you know and i say to myself okay on the flip side of that you have amd you have micron but you also had this broadcast i just want to go back to this broadcast for a second guys so

Gene Munster and I had a conversation on OK Computer last week of Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management. He comes on Fast Money a bunch with us. So we talked about the quarter that they put out. We talked about that long consolidation that you see there. You did say before you left that you thought there was a good chance that on a beaten raise, the stock breaks out. I don't think you thought to the tune of 40% in two trading days, but good on you, good directional.

What happened there, Guy, is that, and again, I think you were gone, the company basically came in line for the current quarter, even guided, okay, the quarter that, well, the quarter just completed in line, guided basically a little better than expected.

in line okay for the current quarter but they basically suggested by the end of 2027 that the tam that for custom silicon okay so they're working with microsoft they're working with a lot of nvidia's customers to create their own high-end gpus was going to be you ready for this between 60 and 90 billion dollars by the end of 2027. so this stock rallied

40% of the assumption that this TAM, that they were going to capture a disproportionate amount of it. So if you think about it, it gained $300 billion in market cap. Okay. Let's be conservative. Well, let's actually be somewhat aggressive. If the midpoint of that is 75 billion, and let's say they're going to take a third of that. Okay. Let's just say they're going to take a third of that. That's 25 billion. Do that by 300 billion. You've just pulled forward as a multiple of sales 10, 11, 12 times.

Right. That seems to me, again, the move to me again, it didn't seem logical to me when I was watching it from afar. I mean, again, Broadcom, Avago, whatever you call it, is a name we have like nonvaluation. But with the stroke of a pen or basically within a couple of days, that valuation, it was compelling. I think got a little excessive. So we're going to see. This is an interesting setup. You know, we'll see how it trades over the next couple of days. But if for whatever reason we were to open gap lower over the next couple

couple trading sessions, this could set up for a really interesting move to the downside. So we'll see. But again, we looked at the SMH. Another name is this Global Foundries, which is a name you've talked about a number of times, GFS, which if you look at this, I mean, this has been challenged as well. And again, this is a stock that's been upper left, lower right for quite some time.

Yeah. And again, it's, you know, I hate to use this expression because, you know, some people don't love it, but it's kind of like been the ugly redheaded stepchild of the foundry business. And just to be very clear, you know, no redheads have been, you know, hurt in as far as we can tell as we think about this foundry war back and forth. But, you know, this stock is, you know, one of these names where it got spun out. The UAE, their sovereign wealth fund guy owns

owns 81% of this. Okay. And then Fidelity owns 9% of it. So you think about that concentration. I have no idea how this stock doesn't rally. You know what I mean? Like there's no float if you think about it. So this is one where they got about a billion and a half dollars in, um,

tip sacks funds to build out a uh you know a plant in upstate new york and malta new york um you know i'm just surprised maybe the stock's move today has something to do with the fact that investors are looking for some stuff that might play some catch up early in the new year um i just think it's interesting let's go back i think we have a longer term chart here um but

know this one could be something that is worth keeping an eye on especially as maybe the semi trade will look to broaden out a little bit because again you can't just keep piling on the things like nvidia that are up 180 percent or a uh broadcom it's up 110 or a taiwan semi that's up a hundred percent so um you know let's see what happens here but again enough focus on the semis um but guy when you think about just software in general let's pull up the igb for one second here

Because I think also while you were gone, if you were looking to see some, you know, some some catch up names in the SAS and the software space in general, you look at that thing. Let's do a horizontal line. Look, beautiful. We talked about this. That was, you know, that consolidation and the ability to play some catch up. You know, that's what happened post-election. Right. So maybe it's a combination of some things like, you know.

The valuations and some of the big names, you know, maybe they looked attractive relative to semis, but it was also a catch-up trade. Nice breakout there. But Adobe guy, this one, man, oof, that guidance. And, you know, this is a great example of a company that is squarely in the focus of a lot of the generative AI and the end markets they serve. And not only that gap guy, look at how it kept on going for him.

And we're pretty significant. If you look at this, we can draw the line across from the June low, and that's a huge support level. And this is a really important stock as well. And if you do a longer term chart, you sort of see where we are and where we've been. But, you know, again, like a lot of these things, Dan, these have to hold and these are not insignificant names because.

You know, the air pocket below, if we were to sort of break 440-ish, is going to be significant. We have a couple of questions. Griffin Keegan saying, yes, Avago needs to hold that island. Thank you for pointing that out. This market just on autopilot higher while crushing the VIX. That's from Eric Clifton.

Yeah, but you also see how quickly, Eric, the VIX, again, as I mentioned earlier, you had that move last week from probably 14 and change or so all the way up to, I think, 25. And obviously, we pulled back today. And again, I'll say it for the 100th time, I think the VIX is going to be something that surprises people, maybe not for the rest of this year, but early next year as well. I think you're going to see a few days where the VIX seemingly out of nowhere has days

This is from T-Bug. Right when I get ready to buy more Palantir, it takes off again. You know, T-Bug, I'll tell you this. As you know, Dan, I know you know this. Palantir was the P in my hope trade a few years ago, and that obviously didn't do all that well. Today, Palantir made another all-time high of 82 and change. I think it's lower right now in

In terms of where it's trading, in terms of sales, this is now $185 billion company, and it trades at a ridiculous level price to sales. And I think at some point, either the market's betting that they're going to grow into that, which I don't see happening, or you're going to get to some semblance of normalcy because right now it's just on autopilot.

Yeah, no doubt. I mean, listen, I don't have much to add on this one just because, uh, you know, it's one of those trades that a lot of folks have just thought that, um, you know, a huge beneficiary of generative AI. We know, we think about the end markets, we think about where their customers are at probably pretty lumpy and probably consistent from the government and intelligence agencies and the like here. So again, um, you know, if you have a thesis, you know, have a ball, keep going T-bug, but, um,

You know, I don't have a strong one. Hey, guy, I wanted to hit some consumer stuff really quickly. So you remember when that huge gap in August when Starbucks announced that they were kind of canning their old CEO and bring a new one? And I don't think that CEO was there for too long. The prior CEO, a massive gap. It went from 75 to 95. I mean, like literally that that was a two day gap.

Look at how it's kind of filling in the gap there. I think there's a whole host of things going on. I think Chinese consumer is one of them. There's also been some issues with cocoa prices and coffee prices and the like, and obviously wage prices. But look at that move over the last week or so. And again, it just shows you that sometimes the markets can be totally disconnected from fundamentals in a way. Because you and I, we remember seeing that headline, and we're sitting there on Fast Money, and we're like,

You're like, why the hell is the stock up 20 bucks or something like that? You know what I mean? Just on the announcement of one, you know, you know, one CEO or one. This is interesting. And I actually was watching this last week. I mean, that move, I guess, in retrospect, you know, from 75 to 96. OK, you're getting excited. People are saying that they'll be able to fix the problems that they had.

My point around Starbucks, and maybe the market's starting to figure that out now, the problems that Starbucks has were much different than the problems that Chipotle had back in the day. And those problems seemingly were easy to fix. I don't think these problems that Starbucks has worked.

are as easy to fix. And the exuberance around the stock lasted a lot longer than I thought. I mean, this was basically from middle of August until recently. But now look what's happened, Dan. We've almost given back half of that move. We're through the 150-day moving average, and we're right back into that gap. If we were to go back down and see sort of that $80 level again, which is effectively where we took off from,

You're going to have to start to wonder, you know, are things as good as the market thought they were over the last few months at Starbucks? And my answer is no. Yeah. And again, you know, we mentioned this all the time. I mean, gaps are meant to be filled, right? And so you look at the move off of the spring lows after the gap lower and it did a nice job filling in a bunch of it. But then again, it just made a match low by the end of the summer. So this one will be interesting to keep an eye on. I also want to hit Nike guy. You missed this one. I'm sure you read about it while you were away.

because this is one not too different than Starbucks. They did have a management change. Also, this was fascinating. Well, we were on fast money. Okay, the numbers came out. And based on the little bit of guidance and commentary, the stock was up like 7%, 8% in the post-market.

And then the new CEO came on and said, listen, a lot of the changes we're going to be making are going to take much longer than expected. And the stock sold off and then it was down 5%. And then you see that was kind of reached some sort of equilibrium. If we want to pull this one out to a five-year chart, obviously China is a problem.

For them, not too different than Starbucks in a way. So to me, this one acts so poorly relative to almost everything else in the market. You know, like this thing probably breaks down off those recent lows and maybe heads back to the COVID lows. Thoughts? Competition's a bitch. And, you know, the CEO addressed what I think we thought. I mean, the problems are deeper rooted and they take longer than the market thinks, you know.

People get really, I understand the excitement around Nike. I understand the excitement around Starbucks. And these are obviously in terms of brands, iconic brands, but they're deep rooted problems that are not going to be fixed over the course of a quarter or two. I think in terms of Starbucks, it probably takes the better part of a year and a half or two years. And probably the same is true with Nike, just in terms of the competition that's been coming, that they seemingly have not been

aware of or didn't think was as strong as it was. And, you know, if you do longer term in Nike, I mean, again, this is a stock that is not performed now for a quite period of time. I mean, it's a better part of three years now where it's been in this downtrend. So I think that will continue.

And we'll see. You know, I understand the excitement around it. I get it. But I think it was misguided at best. Maybe, you know, maybe we can look at this again in the next couple of quarters. But, you know, valuation isn't compelling enough for me to say, you know what, you got to go in full bore in either one of these names. Yeah, no doubt. If you take a line and you go from that –

2018 low, right? And you attach it to the COVID low and then you see what you get here. I mean, like right through that gap. See that guy just sliced right there. I mean, look at that. Yeah, that's going to be massive resistance if it kind of bounces back that way. I think that's towards 90. I want to hit consumer staples because there's a couple names in there.

maybe amanda can pull them up or or i can do this the xl walmart's got to be the one right the walmart's number two behind costco and then you have proctor coke and pepsi those are the ones i kind of want to focus on first and then we'll get to walmart here okay so look at this pepsi chart it's a disaster and this is one i have not been paying attention to guy like i don't know have you caught this thing uh on the way lower now well it's been bad for since the summer you know and

There's a lot of reasons why a longer term chart, I think, you know, people are going to say the GLP ones were sort of the death knell for this stock. And I think there's probably some truth to that. But, you know, it's more than that. I think it's in terms of just slowing growth and.

know valuation concerns and i think the market's picking up on it now all of a sudden dan you have a downward sloping 150-day moving average which if you go back and look historically does not lead to great things and you know you go back to i think maybe january or so of 2021 when this stock might have been i don't want to say about 125 yeah right there 128 dollars i was close i mean that's probably what we're looking for here

Yeah, I think the valuation one's really interesting, though, because, again, why did these stocks, these consumer staples always trade at a premium, you know, relative? Like, I remember going back, like, five years ago. We're like, why does Pepsi trade at a higher multiple than Apple? You know what I mean? Like, there's no innovation at Pepsi. Like, if anything, it's a pretty saturated market, you know.

health trends and this and that, whatever. I wonder how much does this have to do with yields, right? So we have yields, you know, a 10 year up at, you know, 4.57%. This is obviously an area that a lot of people think is defensive and they'll like the dividend yield. And so again, you could actually map this against the 10 year or this last leg lower and say to yourself, it probably has something to do with it. And then guy, the dollar also, I think Pepsi and Coke get maybe 35% or 30% of their sales overseas.

yeah the stronger dollar you're right and which i know you want to talk about a couple other stocks but it leads to this question from gary webb if you throw it up amanda or timmy yen quietly weakening near levels at the last time the boj intervened and you're right i think that intervention came in july ish around 161 and you saw a dollar yen go from i think 161 over that period of time

Maybe we got that about 138 or so. But here we are dollar yen strengthening and weakening and nobody's paying attention to it, but it's happening right before our eyes. So I'm glad that Gary brought that up. But you're right to bring up the dollar in terms of what it means for some of these multinationals, because it's clearly creating a bit of a headwind. Yeah. So, you know,

It's interesting to keep an eye on. Maybe they can pull up Coke for one second. I just think this is a really interesting chart, Guy. And again, this goes back to, I think, the exposure that they have overseas. But look at this thing and now go to a five-year chart. There's something that sticks out to me like a sore thumb. So you have that runaway breakout. This is when investors are just like, you know, throwing darts and buying things. Again, this is a great company and it's been a great stock and all that. So this looks a bit

precarious right here. It looks a bit heavy. And so maybe it feels like, you know, if you look at that low that we have from 2022, and then you look at that low from 2023, right? And you look at this thing and you say, oh, I see a series of lower highs.

and a series of lower lows, might this thing kind of fall back and have a five handle it and a not too distant future guy? Who knows? Yeah, I think it's, look, if you're asking me what you are, I think we're looking at levels we saw in the summer of 2023, which is probably 52 and a half, 53. So stay tuned for that. Real quick, we got a question, more of a statement from the Situation Room.

Friday's PC measure was the reason we didn't crash further. If that had gone the other way, we would have been in a bit of a mess, I guess is what he's saying. Yeah, I guess. I mean, I saw that number as well, and I know people got excited that things were cooling down, but the trend is still going in the wrong direction, in my opinion. And I think

People that follow this stuff sort of get it, a 10th here, a 10th there. And even Jerome Powell sort of addressed it. And the fact that rates are going higher, I think is proof positive that the inflation battle isn't over. But you're right in pointing out that Friday could have been a disaster, but for that. But you also pointed out, Dan, that at the end of the day, the market gave back

not half of the gains, but probably 35%, 40% of the entire day's gains. Yeah. And some of the stuff I think that was rallying was the big cap tech and semis and money moved back into those after coming out really quickly. And I said something on Fast Money the night that we sold off on Wednesday, guys, that

investors kinda showed their hands, you know what I mean? Like the moment that there's some sort of headwind in some of those crowded trades, I mean, they peeled out of them, which is one of the reasons why I thought there's a really good chance that we saw some continuation. I wanna hit Walmart because like you said, Costco and Walmart are two of the largest components of that XLP. Look at this thing, and again, is this like a winner take all in retail? I don't believe so. I just think it was like a really easy trade for folks.

to get around let's look at a five-year really quickly here but you see people kind of peeling out look at that long consolidation you and i were probably poo-pooing the whole move you know back and forth up and down filling in gap you know all that sort of stuff that breakout from 50 to basically 95 or so where it just got i mean that's pretty epic for a retailer that has the margins that this company has they've obviously taken share

They're kind of competing on a much better level with like Amazon and the like here. But to me, this valuation and so much excitement and enthusiasm and concentration in the stock, I just don't see how it continues to work next year. No, listen, it makes sense. I think valuation caught up to it last week for the first time in a while. And I think that market sell-off, I think everything sort of got –

thrown out. So now you're saying, okay, where do I get back in or where do I look to get in if I haven't been in a trade? And you mentioned sort of the move from 50 to 95.

if you go 50 to 100 let's just call it a round up I mean 75 or so or sort of where the moving average is should be a level of support and that looks light years away from where we're currently trading but you know we've seen moves of this magnitude before so if you haven't been in a Walmart trade and you're looking for a level to get in I think the form of the 150 day moving average for a lot of reasons will make sense Dan

All right. So we're not all negative here. We're going to find some stories over the next couple of weeks that we think are really interesting setups into the new year. It's kind of hard to kind of pile into the stuff that's worked so well over the last, let's call it year and a half or two. One name, a guy that I had a great conversation with, again, with Gene Munster last week on OK Computer was Uber. And let's pull up this one for a second here, because this is a company that

it has been really a winner take all for the ride share here in the us i think some of the trepidation around how they moved into you know ubereats and some of these other categories um has proven to be a pretty good thing for them this is a one-year chart

You see that move. We talked about it to new highs. That was after the Tesla robo taxi event. It's gone down on a number of things as it relates to maybe it's Elon, his positioning with Trump and what that means for full self-driving and ultimate robo taxi, robo taxi. When it finally happens, whether it's Waymo or Tesla, it's going to be a huge headwind to Uber. Okay. When you just think about it, but in the U S there are 4 billion rides a year. Uber is huge.

you know, getting most of those, right? So I look at this sell-off that we've seen, about 30% or so the last couple months, and I say to myself, on this valuation, with this expected growth, there's nothing out of any robo-taxi, you know, announcement that's going to hit next year's earnings. It's just not.

There's way bones, not in scale and Tesla's not going to be there. So for the time being, I think you see a stock that probably works its way back another 10 bucks back towards that flattening 150 day moving average. And if there's a beat and a raise when they report guy at the end of January, I think this stock's going higher. So again, you're trading this thing off of, you know, robo taxis from Tesla. Now here's one thing you look at that uptrend.

Look what we just broke. I mean, that's a nasty one. And maybe we'll kind of detail some ways that we might play it through options just to define our risk. But that breakdown is not great. We just went through a bunch of charts that reinforced a bearish view. This is a slightly bullish view on fundamentals, but that chart looks horrible.

Yeah, so this is interesting. So if a mannequin, this is a static chart. If you can go back to like 2020 or so, you know, this $60 level, if you go back and look and we just had it, that was a bit of a triple top in February of 2021. I think we did it again in like March and then again in sort of April. Then the stock sold off. And then finally in 2024, we got through it. So paths resistance becomes support.

And that support happened in January, basically of this year, again, effectively in early August. And here we are now. So I think the level is pretty clear. And I actually think you're right. You can take a shot at Uber right here.

All right. One last one. And maybe we have one more question or two more questions before we get out of here. Let's pull up JP Morgan for a second. And so, you know, one of the things that struck me, struck me, a guy is that, you know, the rally that it had after on November 6th, the day after the election. Right. I mean, what a massive move to 20. OK, that's where it closed on November 5th.

okay to 247 or so that's where it closed the next day a 10 move for one of the for the largest bank on the planet right and by market cap and so you see this it kept on running a little bit but it gave back a bunch of that we had looked at a couple times last week the bkx and the kre the regional banks gave a lot of it back the russell 2000 gave a lot back a lot of financials in there the equal weight s p gave a lot of the you know back from november 6.

So you look at this one and maybe you say to yourself, OK, I still see a little uptrend from those lows back in the fall. Is this a name given the fact that just sold off a little bit from those recent highs? Do you reload into the new year? Because, again, I have no idea whether higher yields are better for J.P. Morgan or not, because, you know, J.P. Morgan was going up when yields were going down. It was going up when yields were going up.

Yeah, you know, obviously the lack of, I shouldn't say the lack of regulation, less regulation in the new administration. People got excited about the banks. I get it. But I think that so much of that was priced in already at the valuations these stocks are trading at. So, no, I don't think you go piling into banks here. I think...

A lot of the excitement was priced in in the moves we saw leading up to the election and obviously the few days after. So quick question here. This is from Lost Creek. Is European defense stock something to look at? I got to be honest with you, Lost Creek.

I can't think of any off the top of my head, but I'll look at it. But if you want to throw up a quick Lockheed Martin chart, I mean, since the election or since maybe a week or so before the election, this stock, which was trading at an all-time high, has been absolutely awful.

And at a certain point, you know, you're going to say, all right, we retraced the entire move we saw from the summer. I think we're sort of there yet. I think we're sort of there now, I should say. But man, oh, man, you see how quickly just the change in sentiment can sort of alter the behavior of these stocks. And a lot of it is around this new administration, what they're theoretically going to do to budgets and spending and those types of things.

Yeah. I mean, I guess my one takeaway guy, and I don't know anything about European defense stocks either is just like how quickly investors moved into stories. You know what I'm saying? Like when you think about this, I mean, you know, what was going on this summer, you know, that wasn't going on the Ukraine, you know, war has been going on for two plus years, right? The, uh,

the situation with Israel and Gaza has been going on, uh, for a long time. There's really been nothing going on as it relates to China, right? Like we're not going to get in a, in a land war with China, right? We're not going to be supporting, maybe we'd support Taiwan. But again, um, that's something that, uh,

might change under the new administration. So I have no idea why this stock rallied the way it did. But to me, it's not too different than the GLP-1 stocks. Just pull up Novo really quickly. I don't know if you saw this move guy last week on one of their trials. So we've been talking about the Lilly and the Novo for a while. This is an unmitigated disaster to give back

all of those gains, right? And maybe it's a benefit for Lilly, but I think it's actually something that if you're piled into Lilly still after the decline that it had from the highs, you want to be worried as you go into the new year because any competitive names are news. No, look, I think the metric was they were looking for 25% weight, 25% body weight loss, and it came in at 22.7. And on the back of that

seemingly innocuous miss, you see what it took out. And this is on the back of what had been a pretty precipitous drop since the summer in the first place. So to your point, you see how quickly things can go pear shaped, but you got to run. I know I got to run to the city. This is it for market call this week.

We're back on Monday of next week and theoretically we'll see what the market does in terms of Thursday of next week as well. But obviously want to thank everybody for joining us, especially today, a holiday shortened week. Have a great Christmas, great Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, whatever you're celebrating. Enjoy it. And we'll see you next week, Dan Nathan. Thanks, everyone. See you later. Have a great Christmas.