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The Normalcy Trade With The Abnormal Brian Belski

2025/3/28
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Brian Belski: 我认为美国股市正处于一个25年的长期牛市中，即使存在周期性的熊市和牛市，我们仍然看好市场。我的标准普尔500指数目标价为6700点，这在业内属于较高水平。最近市场回调是健康的，有助于市场找到新的平衡点，我不认为市场会进入熊市。我认为市场正在回归常态，即高个位数或低两位数的回报率，以及与之相符的盈利增长和估值。投资者应该采取多元化的投资策略，避免过度集中于特定行业或资产类别。我建议投资者关注小型和中型银行，特别是那些拥有良好资产负债表和稳健经营的公司。当前市场动能已转向防御性板块，未来可能出现向金融、工业、部分消费品和科技板块的逆转。2023年市场上涨主要源于超卖科技股的强劲反弹，2024年则主要受人工智能驱动。我对CoreWeave的IPO结果持谨慎乐观态度，认为其未能超额认购可能表明投资者正在变得更加保守。我认为人工智能行业仍处于早期阶段，目前市场对人工智能的热情可能有些过高。我更看好谷歌而不是脸书，因为谷歌拥有更强大的业务基础和更清晰的未来发展方向。我不建议做空苹果公司股票，因为该公司拥有强大的管理团队、充裕的现金储备以及稳固的生态系统。我认为媒体对市场内部情况的讨论还不够深入，需要更多地关注市场内部指标和投资者的实际业绩。我对未来市场持谨慎乐观态度，预计市场将经历一段更加波动的时期。消费者情绪指标具有滞后性，不应过度解读，当前的低迷情绪与2022年牛市启动时的情况类似。我不认为目前存在经济过热的迹象，因此我不认为很快就会出现衰退。 Dan Nathan: (对Belski观点的回应和提问) Guy Adami: (对Belski观点的回应和提问)

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Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, maintains his bullish outlook on the S&P 500, with a price target of 6,700. He discusses the secular bull market, cyclical trends, and the path to normalcy in market returns, emphasizing the importance of a diversified investment strategy.
  • 6,700 price target on the S&P 500
  • US stocks are in a 25-year secular bull market
  • Path to normalcy in market returns has accelerated
  • Normalcy defined as high single-digit, low double-digit market returns, similar earnings growth, and valuations in the high teens to low 20s

Shownotes Transcript

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist at BMO Capital Markets). The discussion covers a wide range of topics, including Belski's bullish outlook on the S&P 500, with a price target of 6,700. They delve into the dynamics of the secular bull market, cyclical trends, and the path to normalcy in market returns. Belski shares his views on the impact of geopolitical events, trade tariffs, and sector-specific performances, particularly in technology and financials. The conversation also touches on consumer sentiment, the role of AI, and the implications of monetary policy on market behavior. Belski emphasizes the importance of a diversified investment strategy and the potential opportunities in small and mid-cap banks. The episode provides a comprehensive overview of current market conditions, offering valuable insights for investors navigating these uncertain times.

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