Which Tech CEOs Will Be Left High & Dry? | Okay, Computer.
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Welcome to OK Computer, I'm Dan Nathan, joined by Guy Adami on a frigid, frigid New York City morning. How you doing, Guy? Isn't that some sort of meme when kids do this? Would you rather be really cold like...

or really hot? I think you know the answer for me. I'd rather be melting on a beach than getting frozen in the Arctic. What about you? It's good. It's tough. You know, I try to challenge myself. I might put out a picture later of me out in shorts. Please don't. Shoveling. Please don't. I mean, you are absolutely...

out of this planet here a little bit on some of that stuff. You and I got a lot to talk about. It is Tuesday right after the opening, some big movements across the stock market. But we want to focus specifically on tech and the mega cap tech. I think, you know, you and I have been talking about the MAGA trade. It feels like for years, but I think we're going to make it

Apple, Google, and Amazon because all four of those CEOs were prominently displayed at the inauguration yesterday along with a few others. We also got a very rare downgrade to sell for Apple. That was by Jeffries. We'll talk about that.

and then Netflix earnings tonight after the close, and we've got to wait until next week for most of those earnings. All right, Guy, let's talk a little bit about this. We know that a lot of these big tech CEOs have given personally and from their companies to the inauguration fund, so we knew that it was kind of coming here, but a lot of them were sitting, it feels like, right behind the president at his swearing in and the like here. Let's just talk about the takeaways. How does this set up for 2025? Because

it wasn't just those four companies. We had the CEO of TikTok. We'll get into a little bit of the back and forth with that. Sam Altman of OpenAI was also there. So thoughts, because to me, all of these folks have very competing interests as it relates to what they want to get out of their closeness to the government. And we didn't even mention Tesla and CEO Musk.

Yeah, it's interesting. Well, they didn't look like they were sitting behind him. They were actually sitting right behind him, and it was fascinating to see. And, you know, look, I think the business person in me would say, you know, they're trying to do what's in the best interest of their shareholders, their employees, and obviously their company. So I don't necessarily have a problem with it. The flip side of that coin is the optics around that look just awful, and it just looks like pandering.

And, you know, if you listen, a lot of people sort of bending the knee and it's some, you know, some combination of those two things. So I don't know really what the take of it, to be honest with you. I think it's clearly both of those things sort of married together. But you can understand why, you know, people just normal everyday Americans would look at something like that and feel, I don't know, sort of left out or frustrated.

think the game is sort of rigged against them. - Yeah, I guess you could look at it from both sides too. I mean, I agree with what you're saying about the stakeholders, they have a fiduciary responsibility to do what's best and the right for their company and obviously their customers, their employees and their investors.

But the flip side of that is all four of those company CEOs, you know, they basically, you know, fought the first Trump administration right out of the gate in January of 17 when there was this Muslim ban put in place. We know that there's been a lot of back and forth over these visas, you know, and allowing folks from a whole host of different countries to come and work here. And, you know, if you think about just a lot of those CEOs, whether it be, you know, Google or Netflix,

you know, Microsoft, these are folks that came from other countries here and they become very successful running these big companies. Obviously, Elon Musk, too. You know, I guess the issue that I have is like, what sort of kind of moral compass do these brands have? Do these CEOs have? Because after January six, 2021,

all of these companies, you know, basically either deplatinformed the president, right, or gave very stern sort of warning. And we haven't even gotten to Wall Street. I guess we'll save that for on the tape, you know, but a lot of this is going to be discussed at Davos over the course of this week as, you know, you have many of these world leaders there, many of these influential CEOs. But

If you can give me a sense, what do you think about how all of these differing interests, right? So let's start with Elon Musk at the top. He spent $250 million to have this seat at the table. You think of the different companies that he is the head of. Tesla has a lot of different issues as it relates to regulatory, but also as it relates to...

China and their ability to kind of do business there and what our government is situated or how we are situated, whether it be tariffs or a whole host of other things, right? You have SpaceX there. You have XAI. A lot of competing sort of things and obviously X. Apple, Tim Cook,

China, huge one, right? And we know that a lot of their products were excluded from some tariffs in the first Trump administration. Google has a whole host of things that relates to regulatory and competitive issues as it relates to XAI or OpenAI or Amazon stuff that they're doing there and Amazon. So you have these three huge cloud players with Microsoft on the infrastructure side. They're all working on their own chips, but they're also working on their own models.

So break that down for me a little bit, because, you know, again, some of these folks are going to be left high and dry. You know what I mean? While others are going to be basically Trump likes to pick winners. And that's obviously what's going to happen here. Well, he loves to pick winners without question. And I think to a certain extent, I mean, all the companies you mentioned, they obviously I think all

I would imagine have competing interests, but quite frankly, they all have very similar interests as well. And I think in terms of that, it sort of puts them all in bed at the same time. And I think almost by definition, you know, not necessarily that they want to cozy up with the administration, but they want to have sort of the administration's ear because obviously a lot of the things that are going to be

basically implemented in this administration are going to have ramifications for all these companies collectively to a certain extent and individually to a large extent. And I think they just want to be part of those conversations. And in order to be part of those conversations, they,

I guess there's a cost associated with that. And whatever that cost is, obviously got them those seats behind then president elect and obviously now president Trump. Yeah. I think, you know, not just Trump, it's also, you know, kind of cozying up to Elon Musk too. Right. And so I think that's,

But, you know, at the end of the day, it'll be really interesting to see how long that kind of Musk-Trump relationship. And, you know, I don't want to kind of belabor this. And we're spending a lot of time on this because it actually these are some of the most important companies in the world with the most market cap, you know, the most sort of influence in a way. And, you know, they also are monopolies.

Right. When you think about it, there's no there's no other way to look at these companies and not suggest that they are monopolies. And so, you know, it brings me back to this other idea that we are turning this kind of liberal democratic capitalist system into a bit of a kleptocracy.

if you think about it. And what does that mean? Like we have winners that have, you know, been chosen for all intents and purposes. They look like oligarchs. These are some of the richest people in the world. So at the end of the day, let's just hope aside from just their companies and the investments that they've made, that they're also looking out for the best of the American people. No, fair enough. Is that, does that make sense? No, it makes a lot of sense. And I think the

Listen, my sense is, you know, obviously I'm not as well versed in this as you are, but my sense is this probably has gone on for quite some time. I think the difference now is nobody's hiding it. It's right out there in the open. And I think that's what has people obviously so exercised on one side and so interested on the other because there is no hiding it. It's happening right before our very eyes. And you saw that yesterday if you were paying it or

during the inauguration, if you were paying attention, you couldn't help but see it. So, you know, again, currying favor has probably been around forever. I think now that it's out in the open, though, I think it's changed the level of the game. Yeah, so the most hypocritical one to me is the CEO of TikTok, who's there, you know, when you think about, go back to 2017 when Trump...

initially suggested that this company should be banned in China. We know that Trump has had a very hawkish stance, um, towards China, you know, not just economically, but obviously politically, you could say that they're both kind of attached, um, at the hip, you know, this is a company, uh, that's owned by bite dance, um, in the, in China. Um, this guy, Shu Chu, the CEO, he operates out of Singapore. He's been in front of, uh, Senate hearings where, you know, it was kind of widely, um,

passed around the internet where he continued again and again and again, says he's not the CEO of a Chinese company. He's not a spy. Some of the toughest questioners there, this was last year, were from Republican senators, right? There are many Republican senators who don't want this app here in the United States. The fact that he's got, you know, he's in the catbird seat

Trump's talked about kind of overturning, you know, a Supreme Court ruling that the ban should take effect soon. And just the last thing I'll say about this is like, so Mark Zuckerberg, the best thing that could happen for Instagram and Reels is TikTok being banned in the U.S. Maybe Elon Musk on the other side wants it banned. So his company X or one of his companies who knows XAI can make a bid for it. Right. And compete better than.

with you know meta and and zuckerberg so a lot of like kind of weird things going on over there and you know not to mention where sam altman and open eye fits in but let's just focus um on this tiktok uh bit here and it's the right thing to focus on and it is fascinating and you know what i find interesting and if you watched um stephen colbert monday night which i did the guys from

Pod Save America were on with him. And, you know, I had thought this prior to listening to them, but, you know, they made the point that, you know, it's okay to be, again, to use the term exercise if the Chinese are dumbing us down vis-a-vis TikTok. But if somehow we were to take it over and run it, it would be okay. I mean, the concerns around TikTok

have been in large part, they're basically the dumbing down of a certain age group here in the United States and the fact that people become addicted to it, on top of which I think there's a concern that it's some sort of spy tool. But it'd be okay then if somehow we ran it and did the same things, which I find fascinating. And they mentioned that Monday night. But with all that said, it would be interesting to see how Facebook plays out and how Facebook

figures this entire thing out. Is Facebook part of potentially the TikTok solution? I have no idea, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. Again, with Mark Zuckerberg now ponying up and cozying his way. I mean, in a lot of ways, you know, Reels has not been successful. Obviously, Instagram has been, but, you know, a TikTok Facebook relationship, if in fact it had some sort of U.S. stake,

I think makes a lot of sense. - The idea possibly that XAI run by Musk would like to buy it, there was an article over the weekend in CNBC.com suggesting that Perplexity proposed a bid for the company. They would need obviously a huge backer from a financial standpoint. I think that's super unlikely. This company,

If it was spun out from ByteDance, it would be a $100 billion company minimum, I think. You know what I mean? So who has the ability to do that? But then the flip side of that, in this regulatory environment, maybe it can get done. You're not going to trade stocks off that conversation that we just had. I just think it's going to be a really important conversation over the course of this year and next because, again, if winners and losers are chosen, it really could weigh on these stocks, but it's not going to happen this week or the next.

Hi, everyone. It's Guy. You've probably heard me mention Current before on the pod, but we can't stop talking about how easy managing all your money is with their app. It helps you grow your savings, you can build your credit, and it works for the entire family. Plus, with their new Paycheck Advance feature, you can get up to $500 before payday when you switch your payroll and qualify. No credit checks or mandatory fees required.

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podcast today. Before we get to the Apple downgrade guy, all those companies are reporting earnings next week. So we're going to hit that early next week with Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management. So we'll go through all those names. But the one company that I know that has been on your list for a very long time, you have been a buyer as long as I've been doing pods with you over the last four years, but even longer on Fast Money, you know, on that

whole Disney or Netflix debate that has been raging for 10 years, you are always a buyer on dips. I do think it's important to also kind of highlight the fact from the highs in 21 to the lows in 22, this was a stock that lost like 77% of its value. There was kind of

this huge ramp during COVID where you saw people kind of downloading this thing at numbers that we've never seen, but then you saw the hangover, right, post-COVID. So when you think about this company going into the print, it's trading very near all-time highs. Valuation is something that, you know, is a lot more palatable than it was in years past. You know, it looks like they've won the streaming game, but at the end of the day, they're going to be competing for more and more rights. And I think...

the bull story about Q4 was that they had two NFL games. They had, you know, the Tyson fight and all that sort of stuff. And that was driving, you know, subscription. So I'm just curious how you're thinking about this one into the print tonight after it closed. Yeah. Well, to your point, I mean, this was a 940 something dollar stock a few weeks ago. We've traded down about 860. So you've seen a bit of a sell off and your point about what happened in 2021. I mean, I think in the fall of that year was a $700 stock. And by 2020,

early 2022. I think we got down below $200 a share, and that was a pretty precipitous drop. Since then, the stock has been lower left, upper right for you playing our home game, and this uptrend has been in place. How do I think about it going into the print? They've obviously shown domination across a wide range

of the verticals that they find themselves in. And the rest of the competition is seemingly light years behind them. And we learn that seemingly every quarter when we hear from Netflix and then subsequently hear from the Disneys of the world.

I think valuation is a little stretched here, in my opinion, but the fact that they've gotten themselves into these events, I think sort of opens up a whole new avenue for them. So, you know, given the recent sell-off that we've seen from, again, 940 down to 860, I think it sets up really well. Yeah, I guess the one thing you just got to focus on a little bit is margins here, right? So if they're going to be increasingly competing for some of these events,

sports rights, right? That's something that I know a lot of folks were kind of focused on 10 years ago, five years ago, all that original content, but it also helped them get to the position where they are as it relates to subscribers, right? So fiscal 2023, they had 41.5% gross margins.

2024 expected to be near 46% and 2025, 47 and a quarter. So, you know, that sort of margin improvement is the sort of thing that kind of allows you to pay, let's say, 36 times 2025 earnings that are expected to grow 20%, right? And so, again, you know, this is kind of,

mid-teens, low-teens percentage revenue growth. It's hard to see how they really kind of ramp that material when you think about subscribers that they've gained. At some point, they just have to get greater ARPU, you know what I mean, out of the existing users that they have. And largely, that's outside the U.S., right? Because the U.S. market's been saturated. They've already put in place subscription price increases. And again, we know that when they do that, that is pure margin. So

You just mentioned that the stock's trading 860. The implied move in the options market is about 8.5%. There's been three quarters over the last four where the stock has moved 10%, 11% or so. The high that you mentioned, 941. So I think about the breakout level guy from...

Last quarter in October, the stock was trading below $700, had a huge gap. And then since then, it was just kind of off to the races. So at some point, this one, unless they really materially beat subscriber growth, I mean, I'm hard-pressed to think there's a lot of upside going.

Yeah, well, we're going to find out. And the thing about Netflix is it surprised people the last couple of years, more so on the upside. But you've had a couple moves to the downside that have really caught people off guard. So maybe the right thing to do here is just sit and watch, hope for a downdraft, maybe

maybe get it down to eight and a quarter or so and then remain in this uptrend. But if you wanted to play stock market ahead of the print, I mean, my instincts suggest the upside is greater than the downside at this point. Yeah, and going back to that implied move of eight and a half percent, if you're just looking at the at the money call, if you agreed a guy and you wanted to kind of take a defined risk,

bullish view into the event, you're basically risking 4.25% between now and Friday's close. Check us out on Market Call. We're going to kind of dig into that a little bit today. Apple.

Downgrade, Jefferies, it's one of four sell ratings on the stock. So you don't see that too much. We've been highlighting the fact that over the course of this last year, analysts have been actually very lukewarm on the stock. If you look at all the fateful eight, I mean, I think most of them have like 90 plus percent buy ratings on their stocks.

You know, Apple has, I think the percentage right now, about 63% have a buy rating. So much lower than that of many of their mega cap tech peers. But when I think about this company, Guy, I think about basically high single digit earnings growth expected for 2025, similar for 2026. It trades about 30 times this year, 2025, 27 and a half times this year.

Next, revenues, which have been growing at low single digits the last couple of years, expected to grow, let's call it 6.5%. This year, I'm just hard-pressed to see how this story makes sense right now. If you were buying this stock over the last few months, you were doing it because you thought Apple Intelligence is a winner and it's going to cause a big upgrade cycle. It has not materialized in any way, shape, or form.

or form. And I just want to go to the stock really quickly here, Guy. So it had been really range bound over the last few months of the year, really going back to, let's say, the summer into the end of the year. The stock was trading near $220 the first week of November. It started rallying after the election. It broke out, went to $260 late December. And here we are. We've given all of that back

So when I say to myself, I couldn't understand why the stock was rallying the way it was November and December, especially my view on how it was playing out as far as iPhone units. But here we are. We're back at a kind of important technical level. Valuation looks better. They don't report until next week. Thoughts?

Valuation looks better only because, again, of the self, we've seen what is probably about a 15% sell-off or so since the high of 260 and change that we saw, I think, on December 26th, if memory serves. So number one, yeah, the valuation obviously looks a little bit better. But I think you would admit and agree that the valuation is still

excessive. My thoughts are your levels are spot on. I mean, this is a level in November that we had that huge move up into the end of December, this 220 level. It was also a level that we held if you go all the way back to September. So this 220 level is critical support in terms of the stock. But what's been interesting is if you go back over the last few years and look, when this stock begins to sell off, the sell-offs

typically last a protracted period of time. For example, you know, we made a new all time high in December of 2021. The stock didn't bottom out until January of 2023. Then it got back on its horse.

In July of 2023, the stock topped out around 197 or so. It bottomed out around 165 or so in April of 2024. So my point in bringing that up is when the stock starts to move lower, it typically does so over a prolonged period. And now we're one month into a sell-off.

The question is, how long does it last and where do we get down to? Because we have seen 35% to 45% peak to drop declines in this stock before, and it feels like we might be on the verge of one again. And I think one of the reasons why the stock did as well as it did in that period of time, and I've been wrong about so many things, but what I've really underestimated is the

power of passive investing. And we saw a trillion dollars last year go into ETFs and mutual funds. And the one stock that wins to that more than any other stock is Apple. So I think on the way up, it's great when money's flowing in, it's great. But when fundamentals start to matter,

is when things start to get a little bit dicey. Yeah, and so I don't know if it's fundamentals that matter to Warren Buffett, but the first half of 2024, he was legging out of half of his long position, which was a huge winner. I think he made hundreds of billions of dollars on that since he started buying 10 years ago. That kind of kept a cap on the stock. I think that level was sort of 200, and then it broke out when people got excited in late June about this Apple intelligence, and it kept on going for reasons that you and I

could not really fathom. And so when you think of this 220 level, yeah, it's important near-term support, but 200 is the breakout level from earlier last year, and I just think that's the one to focus on. So to your point, you could have 260 to 200, and then you probably have a reset in the valuation, and then you want to start thinking about the back half of this year. What are some of the improvements that come out with Apple Intelligence? What are some of the new hardware form factors? Because there's already reports –

coming out that they're going to have new thinner and some cooler sort of stuff going on. It probably sets up really well for a back half of 25 trade if you get the thing back towards 200 and start the dollar cost average there. But we will see. Let's see what the kind of guidance that they give. Last thing I'll say, Guy, you know, if TikTok were to be banned, part

of the ban or important part. And right now you can't get it in the Apple application store. You will not upgrade your iPhone if you were a kid and you were addicted to TikTok because if you upgrade or change phones, you will not be able to download this thing. And again, who knows if that ban happens. Last thing.

down 3.6%. It's 10.22% as you and I are recording. When's the last time an analyst downgrade, especially from a company like Jefferies, which is not a tier one sort of brokerage firm, you saw this sort of performance in such a big name on a downgrade? No, I mean, I think you're right about that. And they seemingly caught it at this inflection point where downgrades obviously are having an impact. But to answer your question, I don't remember the last time. So

I admire the call and I don't admire it because

you know, they're putting a sell on something I also think should be lower. I admire it because it's so non-consensus in an environment where it's been really tough to do that. So we'll see if it plays out. Obviously, today it is. You know, I do think if we were to close below 220, then things are going to get really interesting on the downside. Then you start to wonder, are we going to do the round trip to 193? And that's the level, if you remember, I think it was June 10th of last year when they had their big Apple day where they announced AI and the stock went

And over the next few months, went from basically 190 to about these aforementioned 220 levels. Yeah, and last name before we get out of here, Tesla. So the stock's down nearly 4% today. You would have thought that that one would be trading particularly well given Elon Musk and his proximity to Trump. We know that Trump put in, I think,

dozens of executive orders, one of which is kind of repealing much of the Green New Deal, I guess. And in that was this call for, or not call, but for these EV tax credits. Musk has said, again, it's going to hurt our competitors much more than it's going to hurt us. That's it.

There's a huge price war going on. There's weak demand in China. So you put together, you know, price war hitting margins here in the U.S., get rid of those EV tax credits, weakness in China. It sounds like an absolute disaster. We've been talking about a price war that's been going on now for three or so years. You know, I was in London over the weekend and I was watching some of the NFL games. And, you know, there are BYD commercials everywhere.

all over the place in England. So you think about the competitive nature of electric vehicles coming from China. You also think about Europeans. They have big tariffs on Chinese EVs, which makes U.S.

you know tesla's that much more expensive globally you know what i mean because the the byd um is doing so much better in china but their ability to compete at a lower price point outside of china i think is pretty interesting so thoughts on tesla here guy because this turned into a meme stock we know what happened since the election and you know that that was just a kind of um a

feel thing rather than being able to put your finger on what that might actually do, especially when you could just say, well, if EV credits are going away because of the politics, that's not a good place for Tesla to be. Yeah. I mean, I don't have strong views. I'll say this, this level that we're currently trading at, if you go back and look, this was that prior all time high that we saw back in November of 2021. So,

past resistance becomes support. And I think to a certain extent, we're finding that, although we did trade lower than this, obviously in early January, I think it got down to about 380 or so. So I think these are pretty important levels. But I think if you really want to look at it, again, the move that we saw since October is

And this is just October of last year. So three and a half months or so ago, the stock doubled over that period. It's more than doubled over that period of time. The question is, you know, how much of that was justified? And in fact, can we go from, you know, 200 basically up to almost 500 is 350 in the cards. 350 would be a 50 percent retracement. And I think that's inevitably where we're headed.

Yeah, and this was a story out of CNBC.com. We'll put it in the show notes. So you have this company that measures brand value, and they suggested, given their work that they did, that Tesla's brand value in 2024 dropped by, you know, 26% or so. And what are some of the inputs that go in there? You know, you can check it out. You know, it's brand...

finance. This is the company that does that sort of thing. And again, that doesn't mean anything. The stock has basically doubled off the lows of last year. So you can assign whatever value you want to the brand. But I guess the takeaway is specifically here in the U.S., how do people feel about buying these cars given basically the positioning of the CEO and just really how antagonistic he has been to a large part

of our country and the citizens. And just the last thing I'll just say, and you know, you can interpret this however you want, but Elon Musk's behavior in and around this inauguration has been really interesting. Go Google it yourself. Some of the stuff that he did on stage at the rally, thanking the people for electing now president Trump, some pretty bizarre stuff. You know what I mean? So again, the last thing on this front is that the U S and you think about these EV tax credits, I mean,

A lot of the U.S. manufacturers are moving hard into hybrids or have been, and Tesla does not want to do that at all. There seems to be really focused on, obviously, robo-taxis rather than hybrids or low-end priced EVs.

Um, the brand value thing, is that something worth noting guys at purely anecdotal? No, I mean, I think it's somewhat anecdotal, but I think your point is well taken. I mean, for me, the most interesting thing is when will he wear out his welcome with the now president? Because history suggests that everybody does at some point. And obviously for some people it's longer than others. Uh, uh,

You wonder where he is on sort of the timeline. And we'll see, because if that, in fact, were to happen, you know, if you want to talk about the risk to the stock, I think it come in the form of, you know, when, in fact, he does wear out the inevitable welcome he has now with President Trump. Yeah, I think people often forget that the way things go on the upside, especially when you have unusual enthusiasm, as you did in the last few months.

of Tesla and go the other way too. And just like I mentioned, you know, Netflix, you know, Tesla sold off 75% from its 21 highs to its 22 lows. You know, who else did that? Meta did that, you know, who else did that? Nvidia. So again, we're going to just keep reminding people that that can happen. And as you have this multiple expansion that we've talked about for a whole host of reasons that you can't exactly put your finger on when the environment changes in a higher interest rate environment and the enthusiasm

for these products and different regulatory things. I mean, this is when you get weird price action. We've already had it to the upside. Let's see if it happens to the downside. Guy, appreciate you being here, breaking some of this stuff down. Watch us on Market Call live, 1 o'clock, Monday through Thursday. We're obviously on the tape, and we're doing that a bit more frequently this year. It's Monday, Wednesday, Friday, so check us

out at our YouTube channel. That's at risk reversal media guy. And then wherever you find your podcast, that's where you can get our audio podcast. So your favorite podcast store, looking forward to it, folks. Thanks for joining. All right. Thanks so much.