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cover of episode Why Top Strategist Lori Calvasina Remains Constructive on Stocks

Why Top Strategist Lori Calvasina Remains Constructive on Stocks

2025/5/19
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Lori Calvasina
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Lori Calvasina: 我最初对标普500指数的年终目标价为6600点，这与市场预测的中位数相符。由于市场前景存在不确定性，我同时准备了一个熊市情景。在3月17日，我将基本目标价下调至6200点，熊市目标价下调至5550点。今年，预测者需要保持谦逊，承认我们无法准确预测市场，因此导航市场变化比预测更为重要。我们不能固守单一情景，必须根据市场变化进行调整。我始终关注市场估值和仓位情况。年初时，商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的数据显示市场仓位过度扩张，可能容易出现回调。如果出现不利消息，市场可能难以承受，容易出现反转。顶级股票的市盈率和市场其他部分的估值都接近过去证明有问题的上限。

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Lori Calvasina, Managing Director at RBC, discusses her market predictions and the unexpected market trends of 2024. She emphasizes the importance of adaptability in forecasting and the impact of passive investing and institutional behavior on market reactions.
  • Market topped out unexpectedly in early 2024
  • Multiple scenarios were prepared to account for uncertainty
  • Passive investing and institutional behavior significantly influence market reactions
  • Retail investors are trained not to sell at the wrong time

Shownotes Transcript

Dan Nathan hosts Lori Calvasina), Managing Director and Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC. They discuss market trends, economic indicators, and the impact of geopolitical events and tariffs on market performance. Lori shares her insights on equity targets, valuation concerns, and the influence of passive investing and institutional behavior. The conversation also covers the significant role of AI in corporate strategy, fluctuations in the 10-year yield, and investor reactions to recent market movements. Lori emphasizes the importance of adaptability and a data-driven approach in forecast and strategy amidst market uncertainties.

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