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cover of episode A Strong Close—And an Iowa Poll Shocker

A Strong Close—And an Iowa Poll Shocker

2024/11/4
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Pod Save America

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Tim Walz
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Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, Tommy Vietor:本次大选结果难以预测,可能非常接近,也可能出现一边倒的情况。最终的有效宣传者将是生活中的人们,呼吁听众积极参与拉票,鼓励亲朋好友投票。在亚利桑那州和内华达州的拉票活动中,他们发现许多人积极参与投票,但也存在一些对政治不感兴趣或对投票流程不了解的人,需要进行鼓励和引导。同时,他们也感受到了在高度竞争的摇摆州拉票的紧张气氛。哈里斯的竞选广告强调降低物价、解决通货膨胀等问题,这反映了其竞选策略的一贯性。哈里斯的竞选团队在最后的竞选活动中,既强调了与特朗普的对比,也重点宣传了其政策主张,试图覆盖尽可能多的选民群体。他们认为哈里斯的竞选策略比特朗普更有效,因为哈里斯更注重政策和选民沟通,而特朗普则更倾向于煽动性言论。他们总结了从本次竞选中获得的经验教训,包括民调的局限性、候选人的重要性、堕胎问题的影响以及反特朗普联盟的作用。 Tim Walz:呼吁听众在选举日之前联系朋友,鼓励他们投票。 Ann Selzer:爱荷华州的民调结果显示哈里斯领先,这令人震惊,因为爱荷华州是一个倾向于共和党的州。该结果可能与爱荷华州严格的堕胎禁令有关。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Kamala Harris closing her campaign on optimism and unity?

Harris is focusing on optimism and unity to appeal to undecided voters and emphasize her message of bringing down costs, which has tested well among a narrow sliver of voters.

What was the impact of Kamala Harris' surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live?

The appearance projected confidence and optimism, potentially boosting support among those already leaning towards Harris, and was viewed by 9.3 million people on YouTube.

How did Donald Trump approach his final days on the campaign trail?

Trump focused on grievances, openly fantasized about violence against political opponents and journalists, and expressed regret over leaving the White House, reflecting his anger and fatigue.

What was the significance of Ann Seltzer's poll showing Kamala Harris leading in Iowa?

Seltzer's poll, considered one of the best in the business, showed a surprising 47-44 lead for Harris in Iowa, a state Trump won by eight points in 2020, suggesting a surge among older and independent women voters.

What insights did the hosts gain from the 2024 election campaign?

The campaign highlighted the importance of candidates, the impact of abortion as a central issue, the complete takeover of the Republican Party by Trump, and the existence of a pro-freedom, pro-democracy, economically populist coalition.

Chapters
The hosts discuss the importance of voter outreach and ensuring everyone votes in the final days before the election.
  • Vote Save America's 'Last Call' initiative aims to reach voters in key states.
  • Encouraging less political people to vote can make a significant difference.
  • Voter contact attempts and door knocks have reached millions.

Shownotes Transcript

After a surprise appearance on  Saturday Night Live, Kamala Harris closes on optimism, unity, and lower prices—while Trump fantasizes about reporters getting murdered and says he regrets leaving office after losing reelection. With just one day to go, Jon, Lovett, and Tommy sort through the latest from the trail and the final batch of high-quality polls, including a stunning result from Ann Selzer in Iowa showing Harris up three points in a deep-red state. Then, the guys reflect on what we've already  learned from the campaign—regardless of the outcome.