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cover of episode Harris Pollster: Trump Has No Momentum

Harris Pollster: Trump Has No Momentum

2024/10/27
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David Binder
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Ron Brownstein
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David Binder: 当前大选选情胶着,特朗普缺乏明显的选情优势。未决定的选民群体对经济和候选人个人特质都有顾虑,他们对特朗普执政期间的经济状况怀有正面印象,但同时也对其个人特质和性格表示担忧;他们对哈里斯的了解较少,存在一定的风险考量。竞选团队需要同时强调哈里斯的积极政策主张和特朗普潜在的威胁,并应对选民对特朗普'独裁者'说法的质疑,强调其身边缺乏制衡力量。Z世代男性选民关注的重点与其他选民群体相似,主要集中在经济和就业方面。哈里斯需要强调自己与拜登的不同,展现新一代领导人的形象,同时应对特朗普年龄和其在集会上的言论引发的对其心智能力的担忧。选民获取政治信息的方式发生了变化,许多人不再主动寻求政治新闻,而是被动地通过社交媒体获取信息,这导致了信息真伪难辨的问题。高投票率不再一定有利于民主党,因为特朗普吸引了一批以往不投票的人。哈里斯在部分群体中的支持率可能低于拜登,但在其他群体中有所提升,一些跨党派人士可以作为哈里斯的有效助选人。希望选民记住哈里斯会为他们着想,并为改善他们的生活而努力;哈里斯关心的是人民,而特朗普关心的是他自己。 Ron Brownstein: 十月以来,特朗普的支持率有所上升,但主要来自非白人选民。哈里斯与拜登相比,在南部摇摆州的竞争力有所提升,但在北部摇摆州的优势可能不如预期。哈里斯获胜的最有可能的途径是赢得密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州。哈里斯在白人选民中的支持率相对稳定,但在非白人选民中的支持率有所下降。自2016年以来,密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州的反特朗普情绪有所增强。哈里斯需要在白领郊区获得高得票率,才能抵消她在其他地区可能面临的损失。特朗普改变了政党的构成,他将高投票率的选民换成了低投票率的选民。民主党对特朗普的支持率下降感到担忧,但这种下降在密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州的影响可能小于在其他州的影响。自2020年以来,选民构成发生了变化,非大学学历的白人选民比例下降,而有大学学历的白人和有色人种选民比例上升,这种变化在密歇根州和威斯康星州尤为显著。哈里斯的策略正是针对这些白领郊区选民,以及那些以前主要投票给共和党的选民。蓝领白人工人阶级选民的比例正在下降,但仍然高于全国平均水平,哈里斯需要在蓝领白人工人阶级女性选民中争取更多支持,以抵消在蓝领白人工人阶级男性选民中可能出现的支持率下降。郊区人口的增加也可能影响选举结果。哈里斯需要在威斯康星州沃基肖等地区争取更多选民支持。最终,选举结果取决于哪些选民最终会出来投票。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why does David Binder not see momentum for Trump in the final weeks of the campaign?

Polling shows no significant shifts in battleground states; results are within margin of error.

What is the primary conflict keeping undecided voters from making a decision?

They recall a strong economy under Trump but have concerns about his character and divisiveness.

How does the Harris campaign plan to address undecided voters in the final days?

By emphasizing her commitment to improving lives and highlighting Trump's potential threats.

Why are Gen Z men a focus for the Harris campaign?

They are concerned about economic security and future opportunities, similar to other voters.

How does Ron Brownstein view the current state of the election?

It's a toss-up, with some movement toward Trump among non-white voters but not among white voters.

What demographic changes are impacting the 2024 election?

Non-college white voters are declining, while college whites and people of color are increasing.

Why are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin key states for Harris?

They have seen significant counter-mobilization against Trumpism and demographic shifts favoring Democrats.

What is the main concern for Democrats regarding black and Latino men?

Potential erosion of support due to economic discontent and cultural issues.

What does Ron Brownstein suggest to watch for in the final days of the campaign?

The question of whether Trump poses a risk the country can't afford and the mobilization of anti-MAGA voters.

Chapters
David Binder discusses the lack of momentum for Trump in the final days of the campaign and the consistency in polling data.
  • No significant momentum for Trump observed.
  • Polling data shows consistency in battleground states.
  • No signs of a late break in favor of either candidate.

Shownotes Transcript

Kamala Harris’s lead pollster, David Binder, sits down with Dan Pfeiffer to explain how the the campaign is looking at undecided voters, Harris’s gains with Republican women, and why Gen Z men are in the spotlight. Then, The Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein dives into the big demographic shifts defining 2024, from widening gender gaps to key trends in swing states.

 

For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here). For a transcript of this episode, please email [email protected] and include the name of the podcast.