cover of episode Malthusian Swerve

Malthusian Swerve

2025/3/28
logo of podcast Radiolab

Radiolab

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
J
Jeff Guo
L
Latif Nasser
S
Sandra Faber
Topics
Sandra Faber: 我认为地球至少在一亿年内都是适宜居住的。但是,人类的经济增长速度是指数级的,这可能会导致地球资源在几千年内耗尽,从而使地球不再适宜居住。我们需要从宇宙尺度来思考这个问题,并找到一种在满足人类需求的同时保护地球环境的方法。 Jeff Guo: 通过对铜、沙子、锂和石油等资源的分析,我们可以看到,如果按照目前的消费速度和增长率继续下去,这些资源将在几十年到几百年内耗尽。然而,历史上人类多次面临资源枯竭的风险,但通过技术创新(例如从木炭到煤炭的转变)成功地避免了灾难,这种现象可以被称为“马尔萨斯转向”。页岩气革命是“马尔萨斯转向”的一个当代例子,它暂时缓解了石油短缺的担忧,但并没有解决根本问题,甚至可能加剧了环境问题。化石燃料的问题不在于其短缺,而在于其过量使用带来的环境问题。市场机制可以激励创新,但这种激励往往依赖于资源即将枯竭的压力。我们需要找到一种在不依赖于资源短缺压力的前提下激励创新的方法。 Latif Nasser: 人类的长期思维能力不足,这导致我们总是等到资源即将枯竭时才采取行动。我们需要改变思维方式,从更长远的视角看待资源问题和经济增长问题。经济增长并非完全是坏事,它可以带来积极的社会效益,例如改善民生,关键在于如何实现可持续的增长。我们需要找到一种在满足人类需求的同时保护地球环境的方法,这需要全球范围内的合作和更成熟的财富和经济增长管理方式。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Earth can sustain life for another 100 million years, but can we?In this episode, we partnered with the team at Planet Money) to take stock of the essential raw materials that enable us to live as we do here on Earth—everything from sand to copper to oil— and tally up how much we have left. Are we living with reckless abandon? And if so, is there even a way to stop? This week, we bring you a conversation that’s equal parts terrifying and fascinating, featuring bird poop, daredevil drivers, and some staggering back-of-the-envelope math.**EPISODE CREDITS:**Reported by - Jeff Guo and Latif NasserProduced by - Pat Walters and Soren Wheelerwith production help from - Sindhu Gnanasambandan and editing help from  - Alex Goldmark and Jess JiangFact-checking by - Natalie Middleton  

Signup for our newsletter!! It includes short essays, recommendations, and details about other ways to interact with the show. Sign up) (https://radiolab.org/newsletter)!

Radiolab is supported by listeners like you. Support Radiolab by becoming a member of The Lab) (https://members.radiolab.org/) today.

Follow our show on Instagram), Twitter) and Facebook) @radiolab, and share your thoughts with us by emailing [email protected]).

Leadership support for Radiolab’s science programming is provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Science Sandbox, a Simons Foundation Initiative, and the John Templeton Foundation. Foundational support for Radiolab was provided by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.