Crypto's Billion Dollar Opportunity Revealed ft. Dan Tapiero
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Thank you so much. Hi, i'm raped. And welcome to my show, the journey man, where I explore the nexus of understanding between macro crate and the exponential age of technology.

My macro o journey has been long. I've been in this business for thirty eight years. I have learn from the greats of the industry.

The pull hooter Jones is stand drug Millers. I've been part of the great crisis. I've seen.

The biggest trades in the world been part of many of them, whether IT was as a salesman advising people, or whether he is running a micro o fum myself, or part of global micro investor, my kind of institutional research service, i've seen a lot. But the biggest trade of all time, the biggest micro opportunity ever given, was clipped out. I identified that back in two thousand and thirteen.

Now stupidly, I didn't take full advantage of IT. I should have them um but I have done since as i've realized it's a supermassive black hole. What's super fascinating about this is that many of my macro o friends people who grew up trading dolgin and bonds and stuff like that credit, have all moved across the crypto because they too see this is the biggest opportunity of all time.

One of my favorite people, the in tar space close friend of mind, somebody has been as micro s as long as I have his down happy error. Dan is a favourite, real vision favourite of mine. And I, as ever, want to pick his brains what he's say, what he's thinking, where we're going, where the opportunities lie.

So no further would do. Let shots to them. Join me rapt as I go on a journey of discovery through the micro, an exponential age landscape. In the journey, man, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become together. Then happier have a dev.

And good, good to see you.

Good to see you is only a week again. We saw each other in person, which is always nice.

Yeah and one of those panels, um yeah, that was interesting.

Yeah, I did. I was really lucky because I did like a tour of bitcoin og in my entire trip from barry silbert to some of them. Want to talk about in some Frances, go to you that more head IT was IT was nice to catch up with people and everyone got a grin .

on their faces right now. Yeah you know what's interesting is I I feel like you know every new bull market, there's A A new wave of people who are coming in. And it's interesting how some of the people who have been in the space for a long time, they you you know from what time they've come in, you know they have they're not as interested in some of the new stuff. You know they stay focused on, you know what's brought them to where they are today. You know I saw uh, dan am posted something about his bitcoin fund and it's up, you know, whatever one hundred thousand percent .

or thousand percent, one thousand nine, sorry.

one thousand, one hundred thousand percent or whatever is. But you know, a bitcoin fun today is not, you know, it's in two thousand eleven or twelve. Whatever he started, IT was really market genius and you it's been hugely successful.

But today that's a very interesting for people. You know I think that there are many, many of that um and being uh such a premier a IT, you know I I I D gets the space is innovating and growing so quickly. You're one of the few guys who actually keeps up with everything .

on the end trying IT was interesting just to go back a bit. The guy might in samsa ca, which I would mention on camera, he put bitcoin at three dollars yeah and put two million bugs in yeah and and unlike what else fee done is not nothing really. He's got a few businesses he's built around bitcoin.

He now is so bitcoin standard that any investment he makes, he has to look at IT is an apple, his bitcoin, and he's made I don't know how much she's spent on root and taken off the table, but he's made billions upon billions, probably the greatest trade of all time. He's probably done the greatest trade of all time. And a little screen.

There are few of those guys. I mean, there are few those guys around. I mean, I could remember the guy who was the time the president of my gold cup in gb.

I he bought vitae at three dollars and he sold that at ninety. And I told that like that that's Better than any trade i'd ever done in my career. That was unbelievable.

And he was very, you know, much on the cutting edge. Close to barry silbert as well as as well i've been twelve, but yeah, they have before you to to stay with the till today. I mean, that's that's that's crazy.

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Listen, a lot suddenly change because, you know, and I ve been the space for a while, we've seen the regulating hurdles been a particularly applicable on your side because you're got companies in the spaces investing in suddenly everything's change taught me through what you think of these changes because this was the big talking point on my treat when I saw you and everybody else everyone is like, okay, finally we're free.

Yeah I think it's more than that. Um I don't think anyone could have sort of discounted uh the degree to which uh things change the speed you know we went from being a regulatory environment. U S you know where companies were being you know in the not right way, attacked um sued coin base crack in ripple.

Uh you know there was the Operation choke point uh thing we're difficult for certain companies and entities and cypher to even get bank accounts. So IT was extremely hospital and people were leaving the us. To set up in other places around the world.

So we went from extremely hostile to extremely friendly potential crypto hub of the world, uh, in a matter of weeks. And so you know we knew the trump owns crypto and elon is crypto and the and the the cabin always cyp to the congress. So and as a cyp, it's also web three box chain digital assets.

Its it's everything. It's not just lets own bitcoin and sit back and hold all. And so I think it's the it's the possibility of having the largest, most important, wealthiest uh country, most important strongest government actually coming out there now and incentivising the development of blocked in crypto, incentivising companies to sit up here and not elsewhere.

If that happens, I really think the us just blows away everybody else. I mean, europe will never be able to shift this quickly. Asia is factual.

China changes its mind over eighteen months. People don't trust what's going on there. And this is absolutely the right maneuvre.

I mean, I don't know if you were remember, but five years ago when we had our first big coin chat was the summer of two thousand and nine and I said in that chat I didn't understand why the us. Was not at the four front of this because you would allow us to um to have a digital dollar. The the stable I mean stable didn't exist back then.

But I thought if you have big point is your core collateral. You have A A stable coins that are largely dollar based. You have A A massive advantage and the us.

IT took, you know, five years or made, it's been in development for the last sort of, I think, two, three years. People have been saying why this is a great technology. Why are we harness, sing this, right? I think that. And now look, ninety nine percent are of the stable kinds of still dollars and complicated .

that now the biggest one of the biggest positive treasuries yeah.

there too. Hi.

round here. Listen, I think we've got until twenty thirty before the economic single ity arrives. Now might be the exact state, but it's around that.

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Now the other thing is interesting to me is what you mention is you and I know, because we've all spoken to people, is the finance systems been waiting for the Green light. The web, big web, two companies have been waiting for a Green light. There's a lot of people been waiting for a regulatory Green light.

Now we haven't got IT yet because these regulations. But I look at the finance system, and I think one of things you've been talking about as well is if they're onna build, there's an obvious choice for them, which is gonna a theory um a theory has the native yield and IT is the kind of IBM or microsoft of the space. I think people are underestimating how fast finances is gonna come because they're all been working on IT and it's a very likely in theory and ecosystem thing overall thoughts.

Yeah I mean, I i'm .

probably spread IT across everything.

but yeah, I mean, i've always believed in this sort of multiple in where of the different blocks ins can have different use cases. I mean, bitcoin, no question, is the is the collateral uh, for the whole space. And we've talked about that.

I don't know how many times a eat the smart contract platform salona speed, but there are other things like sui and say that are coming up that will find specific use cases, right? So IT shouldn't be that new coins are on the big coin lock chain. Come on a it's fine that it's on so on and all the activity is there.

So I think that, that the number of use cases is so great. We happen even seen what I think is. And i've been looking for companies in aria, but what I think is one of the most important use cases, which is the the use of the permanent ledger.

You know the fact that whatever is stamp on that blocking is there forever can be verified. You know that truth machine concept, there are still very few companies out there or people that applying the power of that to business generally. And you know so for instance, could there be a broad chain that focus is specifically on that aspect that doesn't exist today? sure.

Are they are gonna block chains that maybe focus more on R W X? Or will there be one that is more than N F T based one? Will there be an art one? Will there be one for property realistic? Everything can go on one chain. So you know, we're in the business of the funds of investing in businesses that are leverage to all of the developments that are happening in the digital ecosystem.

I don't think I have the skill set, uh, and I think it's you know it's it's more of a venture type investor that is going to sit there, take apart the code, work with a foundation, grow a specific cuse case on a specific chain um you know I know you're on the foundation of a is a sweet and so you know you roll out your slaves there. You've been one hundred percent right I mean, really heads off to that's been phenomenal. But you know I haven't done network.

So I don't know why. Sue, what's sui's reason for you know, existence? I'm sure IT has one. They've carved out just that.

And just now, yeah basically because they were the team from facebook .

to beat built libra.

yes. So a very smart, well proven team that's done big things obviously got shut down by governments. But what they did is they just went said, we're just going to build the entire web to stack not just the protocol layer of the token, but they will build on top of IT, will build a liquidity layer, will build a data storage, a distributed data stories like so they're taken all the component parts of web two because they're from facebook, they understand IT and have rebuilt them all as different postcodes on top of the sea layer. So it's also IT was certainly passes.

What's its edge is at the stream and what else is extremely fast.

So it's fast than any other protocol in the world. So the latency to settle transaction is four hundred million seconds. It's stupid fast and it's infinitely scalable.

IT just needs more compute hardware. So it's infinitely scalable. So tps is not issues and none of the restraint of Normal block chains or an issue. It's also got a new language that uses something called object based programing, of which you can do a lot more within IT. That's not possible now.

So so it's the flexibility, the new programme language, the speed and then the full stack that they are building that really what their try do is go for the, let's say, gaming is one financial market is another stuff shore. But really is that it's the web to infrastructure layer. The whole thing that they have the cape as you go after.

So it's very, very interesting. They're a very focused. They know what they are doing, the super smart people. So let's say, you know.

these things that I think I probably missed the g mi that you talked about that I mean, I yeah i'm sure you've you know you you've gone through the whole thing yeah.

So super interesting. So the other thing, I think let's go back to micro first. Before we go back into this OK, we've got ten.

you. Where are we in the microclimate for you? And then we took him a little bit about Scott. And because we have a bit of edge there as well.

Well, you know, I think the fed is still in a lowering rates mode. How why employment is unemployment to stage so low? I think that maybe is, you know wouldn't getting your view on that?

It's an immigration.

Yeah well, he was immigration. And the data is all sort of slow down. Two to three percent GDP know, two to three, three percent C, B.

I I mean, this is all just trend stuff, I know um and I think rates are probably a little high still. I still think three is probably the right number uh, that we see in this cycle um especially if you're going to tighten fiscal policy. So this is something you leads into the best question. I I think he in some of the other macro guys, and you know, you and I have known him a long time, I had to talk him in a few years, but we certainly had, you know, plenty of direction, a very smart, very capable.

even going by housing spain. I don't if you were at that round table but yeah, he's been to .

my house and empire ro, you know like really first treasury secretary that really knows markets is very successful. A funny manager. And actually has a view on currency, actually has a view on what the interest rate should be.

You know I I think um you know the person at the fed, I know they're talking about bringing in watch, is that too? I think the two of them would work really well together. A worth visit the shed before right .

and easy right .

IT would .

be is another exercise.

Y I think um I think the two them together would be would be great. Um but I I think they both have the mentality of of tightening fiscal budge tightening fiscal. And so now with doge um with elan you know leading doge, I think you're gonna see a rationalization of the U S.

A government. People say it's harder than you think they won't able to do IT. I mean, everyone said that about everything elon is hearing, so good luck a taking the other side of elan.

You know it'll be it'll be doing construction up on mars. You know within ten years of people's, it's impossible today. So rationalizing the U. S. Government, you know, maybe putting some of our the processes on on black chains that might be helpful.

Uh injecting AI potentially into the process also is know you're more of an expert than I am on that um would be very helpful. So I see as a whole package fiscal tightening, fiscal rationalization, AI bringing the government processes and and functions up to a twenty, you know a twenty twenty level. Many of these things are still left in twenty, twenty century.

you know. And I think you know, from what Scott has said made clear is, yes, they want the kind of fiscal cleanups are issuing less bond. So I A lower deficit, but they're not just going to whole sell, throw people lands of the streets.

As you said, they want to create efficiencies and deregulation, which Scott's bet is. There's only got one choice here. You either keep compounding the debts at record levels or you try to generate some GDP growth and that this this entire government is all about GDP growth. And Scott said, I want to get the old Price lower and the dollar weaker. I mean, this is like macro o heaven, if you can pull this off, this is like perfect situation, deregulation, lower oil, lower dollar.

lower right, lower dollar for a second. I mean, i'm not sure why we need that. Um china and japan .

and all of the others come by us goods because you you can't export your way with a two stronger dollar, china's kind at a choke point because of the currency. And so everyone just wants the dollar lower because IT ignites world trade.

And but we don't need that like the trader export stuff.

If you're onna reduce the deficit.

I don't know. I think this a very old line macro circuit you know one thousand eighty eight or two thousand .

four I scots Scott said this this very .

I don't get IT. I think if you tight fiscally and you rationalized the government the capital inflow into the us. As a as a result of you know corporations uh you know being leaner, the government leading the way in that area. I just think all inflow for investment is going to offset any you know, why would why would anyone not want to invest in the us. With this team that we have? I'm just saying, okay, with this team, the way the interest rates could be lower, but no one else in the world is even close to approaching is no one there's no gup p activist government out there that has you know a proper maco person running treasury. Um you know I think eventually another person you know at the fed of that calibre, the people that they're bringing in, if I were in another place, I would I would want to have my money here.

So I would don't forget we had similar the raging the dolphin down because they wanted IT. So you know my general view is the dollar is in a secular bull market, and but icicles, they want IT a bit lower. So I had .

been barrier ed on the dollar for a while, and my view is sort of changing. Now I mean wrong and make you wrong about IT. I have been a dollar bull in a very, very long time, but I think this is a structural one off shift up.

And no government can compete with the government we have today. And there aren't companies like the ones we have in the us. outside.

I mean, I see even the cypher to space. You know a lot of the volume is outside of the U. S. Eighty percent of IT right now um but not as many you know quality companies outside as you would hope you know given that the eighty percent of the top trading one.

So put that to the side first second I I I hear you on the dollar, but this is the first time in a while um I pick in my head if i'm a foreign stor, what am I? I believe in land china or the company. I 这里 的 my .

view is iconically， as the economy starts growing properly, you tend to to get a week a dollar. I think once we got tarifa plus a reduction of deficits, we probably end up with a very strong dollar. Twenty twenty six, twenty seven. Um you know .

if growth is if they're really if they're right on growth and productivity and we streamline everything, I I I just don't see how that isn't cost, meaning the stronger dollar won't hurt us. I been micro thinking is that a strong dollar is um you know reduces growth, right.

the global global growth but and .

also our gross right a because .

you can't export IT because who do you export to? Everyone's bit slugging, right? China is in the shit. Europe's a mess right now as well.

Who to help you export to and you're got to export your way out because you need the deficit to go down the trade deficit as well and you've got ta sell goods. But if you're too expensive, it's not a great wave generating rapid strong growth. But as you said, is very upsetting because the us. Is the only home of investment right now. So it's complicated, I guess.

Yeah I I think we have to wait to hear what um you know what that is actually thinking on this yeah .

so where are we in the space right now? Because you always follow the adoption of the space at the broadest level. Where are we in that story?

Total active addresses across top lock chains .

ah yeah that's just stunning.

I mean, like we looked at, I don't know, a million charts in our in our career and I don't know that i've ever even seen one like this one hundred and sixty four million active addresses. Um you know some people you know question this data. We've a lot of work.

We think this is the legit data. Six million in january of twenty one right total active addresses across the top lock change and IT stated about IT was twenty million at the beginning of the year and it's just Spiked up to hundred and sixty four million. So we up you know almost seven x this year or up you know three x in the last two months.

These are massive, massive number number. So when I think about you know, adoption, it's not just people owning a big coin. It's what how widespread is the use and interaction with the top, you know, five, ten block chains.

And so this this chart, active income is all launching block chains, including swap purchases, air drops, N F, T, signing to inaction to tetra tech. I mean, it's everything. It's how much activity is moving into the digital asset sphere. So I don't know which.

It's massive. The acceleration in the trend is just vast and it's only gonna get bigger because we just unleash a new understanding, which is like these A I agents are likely to use block chains and they're infinitely scalable in numbers. There's no limit than the total population or whatever.

There's infinite. And you can start to see how much activity can go on chain, as you say, because so much the world is still off chain. And this new government, and what everybody else is doing is just going to bring more or more of this activity.

And once you bring all drivers licenses on, all digital ideas on, you know, if you put us did your ID digits in the us. On, that's three hundred and seventy million users. Come on immediately. They're not using block changes in buying and selling crop to. They're using the rails for proof, which is that trusler you talk about .

yeah yeah and I we haven't seen to me that you if you put the other charge up, that is the, uh, number blockchain transactions process per second. Both chains now process fifty times as many transactions per second as they did just four years ago, fifty times like I I keep saying this, right? I don't know anything that grows like this. What grows like this, I mean, maybe again, is certainly not the financial world, like maybe there is some venture tech areas there there.

And I mean, A I has been fast, right? Really, really fast, but nothing like this. Certainly nothing that is financially zed. I I is not financial. Zed, this is financially zed, and it's growing in this pace.

When I just look at active, the larger measure of active addresses, I get not accurate, but compare them to I P addresses of the internet, same kind of thing. Will will have multiple wall, its will have multiple I P addresses. We're growing at twice the speed of the internet and have been for ten years.

This is not a yeah and I think I think the time of the space is much larger. I mean, there's a lot more, right? There are only seven billion people out there, uh, but you know hundreds and hundreds of trillions of dollars of value.

Um you can see here even the next stable coin volume continues arrival traditional payment rails. The comparison there with VISA, I think stable coin uh transaction values is going to remove is going to surpass via this year. So anybody that is a really thinking about still use case eta.

Then there's the the chart of total centralized exchange volume, which has a is just broken out in in november, back to the eyes, is probably going to be the second highest month ever, right? Only that what is the April, may of twenty one number was higher. So this is more people, of course, coming in this another sort of measure.

Here's another one for you. Down the most people, they realized there's five hundred million broken age accounts in traditional finance across the world, china, india, the us, europe, everything, five million this five hundred million cyp tail accounts across cypher brokers, five hundred million customers.

So we're already at the same size of the number of investors, and we're going to go well past IT and then we're going to see the size come across, right? It's been small as been more retail. But as you and I know, the bigger investors are coming first as the family offices, then it's the endowment ance and then it's the pension plans and then it's the sovereign. You know so this there's a flipper ing happening in the financial system that people are not aware of yet.

Yeah I think well, you know five hundred million accounts a lot. I think the etps even I charged on the the big kinds of back in tps that's going up. And now of the sitting of l tools, you have total bitcoin l two volume that is up ten ex this.

And so if I look out over the next two years, the thing that I think could really take off is U S. Based dei yeah you know dei two years ago basically got pushed outside of the us. And so the first step for everybody is you through a centralized exchange, they come on their crack in or gamier whatever coin based by their bitcoin um but now especially coin base crack in tina theyd MIT IT easy to put over into defy.

You know not everyone is going to buy a ledger going through leger alive or have met a mask um but I do think that once these institutional guys, they are going to older bit coin through the T F or whatever they're going to older theory um they're they gonna start to understand as they watch IT, as they focus on IT. That is really the decentralized financial world that has the ability to grow. I mean TV l total value locked in defies I think around a hundred billion dollars, which is is very small.

The total value in the space today, if I add up all the cyp to currency, all the equities around four trillion. So of that four trillion dollars sitting there, only really two percent of IT is actually active in defi. And I I think that's going to you know I .

think that's in that toronto cash ruling last night.

Yeah, I didn't get a chance to dig in into that.

What was so really, they try to prosecute a person, a developer, for a piece of code, which was the defied decentralized finance protocol. And IT got thrown out about the course appeal, saying, you can't prosecute code. And so, yes, but it's under freedom of speech.

Code is. And so IT just makes defy much more doable now. But I also don't forget, bloody trumped sun is god defy protocol? I mean, that's not enough signal. I don't know what .

is yeah I know I tend not to be so you know I don't know the word is I don't think everyone only acts uh, for themselves all the time. I mean, it's sort of tedious if you behaving that way all the time. I do think that there is a bigger vision here um you know now in the us, uh, that this is a technology that needs to be harvest.

And I think that look, it's still a great opportunity. We talk about IT for the first time five years ago. We said IT was early, but we weren't sure that I was so early.

You were hard core into IT in two thousand twelve and I was sort of doubling IT in thirteen and fourteen. But um I think now there is this greater just the beginning of this broader understanding um that I really can't permit everything. Um and I think one of the first places it's going to start also is in the equity universe.

Of course, i'm speaking my own book care a little bit. We have many private companies that we think in the next eighteen months could become, you know, potential public companies. And i'm hoping that dc and ACC and this whole new regime that come in want to encourage companies that are successful, that are bottled up that you know look like public companies um from you know help help and encourage them in a way but not attacking them but you know hopefully movie .

yeah and I think .

this a well, they're only there's only really coin base and you maybe microstrip gy, but to me, that's more of a bitcoin. Our specific play, it's not really an Operating business. And um galaxy which is smaller and galaxy is eight billion market cap coin basis A D so I keep saying that I I don't know many things with the ninety and nine percent degree of certainty, but I know with the ninety nine percent degree of certainty that coin base is not going to be the only large public blockchain crypto to company in the next five years.

And you know I think circle will see in potentially etr o and um you know crack and has been talking about IT for a while, maybe even ledger at some point. These are companies are making a few hundred and eight hours in revenue and the public has no ability really to get exposure. So I think you know, yes, you own your bitcoin and if maybe you'd devil in sui and say and you know a few of the others, but for most people who want to have some equity exposure, I just it's not possible.

right? Is just not i'm sure, look, I I actually think coin base goes up to half a trillion dollars.

I want A I think that's that's eventually the right number.

I think that's a that's a great opportunity, but there's plenty more opportunities. The capital markets being closed to this stuff. The other thing I think is coming is because nobody else has been able to be involved. Ema is coming whether the web two companies are the financial industry because the eminence will buy as a post trump built from scratch.

Yeah that's not to yeah we're involved right now in several different transactions. I'm not going to talk about them, but my whole team uh is sort of activated um in in this way. So there are several companies that we have.

Some of them are ones that we we on both sides, and they are related. They are also introductions that we've made in the whole one rt ten universe. And you know we invested in twenty four companies, deployed over one point two billion.

So we have board representation on twelve of these companies. So it's very easy for us in the middle to act as a go between you know put companies together. I mean, I went it's very easy. It's easy to making introduction. It's not easy to necessarily facilitated um but you know we're doing our best in that regard.

You pull them out t the types of businesses you're investing, you know you've gone to very much more with three businesses as well. Things like you in the nf t ecosystem, you know around the animal, a staff you've invested in, you know the guys here in Kevin leon who are bitcoin lending, which is super interesting .

but yeah um and .

you've also yourself, I think and as part of this whole down industrial complex have been involved in the new what is called then then .

rock so that's really that's really interesting. I am done industrial .

complex.

This is as money. No, we just closed. We had a small secondaries fund that we raise for the last or nine months. We'd been buying the secondary stock.

I tried to buy in the companies where I have board seats and I have, you know, good visibility, but it's really in the ecosystem. We have this special sits component. We're raising our own Sparked now as well in this world fund potentially despite companies in our .

area very interesting. And this might .

make IT open yet. Well, apparently this is yeah well, I don't know if IT is in the way that IT wasn't twenty one like a gorge fest, but I think selectively it's a great way to bring companies a public sure a period of time and you know at tech their pluses and minnesotan verses in IPO. And then then rock is the company we transform that we had investing in cradle.

Uh we bought IT IT had rented to some problems, we bought that of administration restructure, refocused IT. And um the the core the core tech is this multi party computation tech, which is the next level of security after multi sig. Um we have our own tech.

We built IT over you know four hundred and half years. And I had just always thought this would be the backbone to decentralized custody. So for five years, four years ago, I had this I love this concept of um not having your assets custody in a single place like fireball ks.

They do a great job but it's a single place when you have your bitcoin that's wrapped that's movie around the devise. It's generally he started to ve been just in big goat. And so I thought, well, this company come up with the idea of not having your bit point in a single source, having IT stored in the network.

And to me, that was just like an incredible concept to be able to, you know, because i've been in the gold, physical gold sales at storage business and I always used a lot of you know some of the storage businesses in the digital space as like the volts um you know of cyber space and then I thought, well, what if you can actually hold your digital life is not in a single out, but you can hold IT in many volts at the same time and so this tech allows for that and I I just I just thought, well, what can we really you know, what can we do with that? What more can we do with that? And we came up with this idea of um and this is our first product and it's going to be launched um in a few weeks called then BTC, which will be the first decentralized you bearing wraps bitcoin product.

Where does the yield come from?

okay. So that's it's always .

the question .

is always the it's always the question. And um you know it'll come from you know the validators. It'll also come from that.

It'll come from ign layer. And this is where I traditionally hand off the specifics of where the u comes from. Janni little who is partner of mine and CEO business. Um it's not a huge amount of yelled, but IT it'll be you know a few percentage points. If we go back to our .

very first part of our conversation, we would talk about friends of us who have billions and billions and billions of dollars a big coin. They've never had the yields. They've never .

Better do anything with that. I mean.

yids, I mean and may not that may be I get IT, but there's planning of picture in the system that could do with a yield and its great collateral.

It's the best clattering and system yeah and to have a you know to have the bitcoin stored not in a single place IT just always struck me as weird that the bitcoin that you know w BTC, the bitcoin for w BTC started bit out just one place. And so people who move around and defy, I wouldn't think there the people who would want their bitcoin in one place, single point of failure. Um and so IT IT takes a little bit of sort of magic.

I think I kind of seems like a little magical attack to make this happen. Um but I I think it's look, A Z five is going to explode. Biton is exploding.

Biton is collateral. If we can do something a little different and offer yield in a conservative way, I think that's you know that's just a bonus. But yet we went to we fully Operate xin rock is iraq labs that is launching this product, and we actually have a token launch. It's A I think it's friday. Can you believe I we have a business that we have actually and it's taken months and months and months.

but this is very cool. Who you thought you would be doing this right?

I know the rock token, I mean the rock in uh, we're having R T G E token generation event. Um it's going to be key to our sort of ecosystem. And look, I I think if we can get just a little bit of tl a in z BTC IT really becomes something that will become a big focus for us. So you know part of the reason I shifted a little bit into that was that you know growth equity, which is sort of first twenty four investments that we made, companies generally investing more than fifty with over fifty million in revenue, know for the last eighteen months, there really hasn't been a single proper large growth deal.

I mean, zero and my specific areas are not venture like bc and later these more developed companies um really got hurt by the S B F F T X tobacco because he plug a lot of the growth investors into stock and they got killed and these are people who were successfully old world massive firms you know tomb ovo and I don't know you know a silver like tiger or coat to to mosk all of these very large um and they didn't get her just in in in F T X but they invested at very high multiples fifty to eighty times revenue in some cases in these cypher blockchain businesses that you know promise the world and didn't deliver. And I think they really sweet on the space. So the capital has not come back into the growth, uh, equity space just yet.

I think it's coming. I think we will start to see some deals. As you mentioned MMA, we have companies that we think are ready to be brought public um but the venture side the venture space has come back. I mean, it's you know the you the most risky things in our space are exposed. I mean it's and the VC doing seed and proceed things that has been ongoing.

But the larger companies still are suffering from the the nick, the fall out, you know the reputational fallout, the space know the space's reputation was damaged for those external you know larger or fifty billion dollar finds, hundred billion us. Pension funds or larger institutional entities um that were sort of duped into some of the fragile late names. Look, there's still is a little bit of a wild west component to the space.

I do feel like we are pioneering. I've said this year is like eighteen forty and we're heading west and we're pioneers and they're all sorts of destroy y dudes and ect. You know all sorts of people are out to gate and you know it's like you're going out to dig for gold and you file a gold and then you know all the sun, someone tries to rob you.

And so I mean, it's it's there's a little bit of that. Um I think we're moving away from that. Um um but you get things like F G X and they are the poster child. So anyway, this next bull phase, I think we're going to see, i'm thinking at least one hundred and sixty hundred eighty thousand bitcoin you know eight, nine, ten thousand and theory um I mean i'm being conservative so on I probably could double from here.

I I always thought that even a year two years ago, sort of one fifty to one eighty was my target based on the way things that moved in previous bears to bold the last three cycles. I don't, if you have any, uh, our companies do. There are all like kicking, but I get into that. But I mean, almost all of them are near record revenue or will be in the next you know few months.

My general view is I hate the conservative numbers and I think it's always good to anche cells on those particular when you building a business. I think for me the base case the base case is color fifty, so one fifty low side, two fifty Normal, four fifty blow off, two thousand and seventeen side.

But at the end of twenty five, yeah, so I do know just that.

I was two thousand and seventeen, yeah, I sold out at two thousand. And just before that, the usual tax season wrote falls in light march, April, major. I saw that two thousand .

IT went up ten .

x in four months. At the end of the .

yet ten x if there was are smaller numbers, we can go up ten x hope.

That's i'm saying that's why i'm saying, listen, it's possible to go up three x in in the last part of the bicycle if we get very strong cycle. Let's all i'm saying is that I think that tail is is because figure are so much ptsd. I think it's under prised. You're not saying as my base case.

but you know image value will be added to the digital.

I think your number ten, yeah I think I think entry and is underestimate for this cycle. I think it's close to twelve, twelve, thirteen, something like that this cycle. I think you you know your whole ten t idea is going to send hilariously outdated very soon.

And then IT brings me right back to the beginning. The first um thing I we discussed, you can tell where somebody entered the space because ten will be a joke IT wasn't when there was three hundred billion in two thousand thousand and nine thirty x people are like you're nuts. There's no way but yeah I think ten will be too small by far right yeah .

yeah I wait to I mean I think by within ten years, if I just just follow the local aggression channel of a market cap or use a bitcoin version and then pute something out of IT, I get two hundred. I get two hundred trillion by twenty thirty four. Now that makes sense because all other assets are one hundred, two one hundred, three hundred trillion.

Lot of assets are going on to this can be a lot of activity. I don't that's wildly wrong. That kind of suggest only three percent there because it's three trillion today.

It's like what was that first call you had? Did you call for bitches in? What was that very first one in .

that are so I said I think it's worth a millions. It's worth seven hundred thousand, seven hundred noses of gold at the time which so that was twenty thirteen and I said i'm going to discount myself by ninety percent because this sound stupid to call a million doa bitcoin. It's two hundred, so i'm going to say a hundred grand.

So we hit my original target from eleven years ago, and I still think we will hit the other target, which is now seven hundred answers of gold is now two and a bit million dollars. So I do think somewhere, and that was a bad math calculation, random numbers based on stocks of flow. But I kind of feels about right now, I think that sounds about right.

you know, yeah, I I, I, I, I wonder, you know, it's interesting because we're talking about these big numbers and of course, you've got Michael seller out there who's you taking a cycle out of the air out of the room um right fully. So I think he's you know he's he's been incredible for the space. Um but I haven't sort of sense as much enthusiasm yet as in previous cycles, right? Like I don't feel somehow I don't know. Maybe it's because some of these a old coin to tech are still down ninety percent if you look at some of fun, you know are not ripple, which is now exploded. But you know some of these yes.

yeah, we haven't had we just started sit in the last two weeks where things are doing fifty percent in a day. You know that's what brings in retail. And I know from my what's that messages that people are coming back, but these were i'm only getting back last cycle people and not new cycle people yet.

Not above where we were in twenty one in terms of emotion and this and that I mean, it's very, it's very I mean, if you're new to the space, you might think all it's crazy. It's this it's that he feels very tempered. People feel like I feel like whole hum. Someone told me we have we have some companies where the founders have been in the companies they founded seven, eight, nine years ago and they are really tired yeah and it's it's tough .

market to be in, right?

As always say IT trades five times as long as the S P per year, right because it's twenty four, seven, three, sixty five, the S M P only you know eight hours a day or whatever IT is. Um and so every one year in the old world is like five years in our world. And if you started at a business nine years ago, you live through you three balls and three bears uh that's you know that's like forty years in the old world.

And so we have you know founders that are interested to sell their businesses. If you know know you'd look at them and you'd say, well, why you why are you interested? This is the greatest business ever you're kicking, but you're making a huge amount of money and they just say, you know, like they started IT from zero and now maybe they have a billion dollars in IT or whatever the number is. Um so I still I feel like the volatility in the space is really, really choose people up IT .

does a particularly then you know this because you say building a business in a very volatile asset means that your cost space has to become flexible. That's the hardest part, right? The hardest part is the quality of your revenues versus your cost space, which means every time you have a downcycled, you spend eighteen months of firing people and IT it's .

so that is really hit them on the upmove, which is kind of you know you try to game in a little bit, right?

You you do but it's it's hard. I know I was with one of the blockchain of one of the central exchange guys, a bar silver z thing ah and I just that like we're done which can't do you know I know I got you .

mean tire that's like in there amid thirties who are just White from ten years and .

we thought seventy seven percent of our staff and having to rebuild again and they were desperately trying to higher staff and is like, you know.

this is just too hard. It's difficult. I agree. I wonder, you know look, I think the volatility sort of going forward next ten years can't possibly be what it's been the last ten years. But you know the way markets work, everyone always gives up at the exact wrong time, always, always like you. I think it's it's almost it's so good and it's like coin ef right now.

right that the cross you've been pointing that out.

IT was like to this, ross. And now watching the cross, I just watch the Price.

watching the cross and just hearing people just capitulate like eat a piece of shit is never game where theyve screwed up fittings and more on like we've seen this all before.

right? And at twenty five hundred, IT was really like twenty seven hundred. A few weeks ago, I started looking at IT, and I just thought, this is way to cheap up at eight and eighty thousand.

This is ridiculous. And I started putting out some tweet. I tweet something last night like, if not dead, they kept saying if and there's such like rivalry or you know tribal behavior, travel behavior is always wrong. It's just like buying IT an emotional extreme when you feel great is always wrong. You know, selling when you are feeling that is always one. So um I just felt like, you know the eat community I guess at the moment IT doesn't really have a sailor know he doesn't have uh, a guy out there you know with the normous amount energy mine you know fatos a programmer his you know he's thinking about stuff, you know the nets and bolts as are some of the other four people. I think I .

think it'll be the financial system. I think people suddenly that began oh so so is building on this lair to and so so is doing this. And then people go, oh, I get IT.

Now my thesis was that they just overbuilt block space for where we were, but that was forward planning for a future because we going to need a loss of block space. And theory is very secure. It's interrupted across a whole bunch of evm stuff and nobody gets five for building on IT. And so IT be n IT will be just fine.

You know the question really is, is you know over the next year or two, during the next bull phase, is there anything that we is there anything that we see growing near the exponential guy a exponentially that we're not really focused on right now? Like is there do you have one of those outlier ideas? Maybe something is dying, the creep.

I think. Listen, the one that I think is, is probably the biggest of all in terms of numbers outside of like gaming itself will know about it's idea, it's digital idea and proof of AI proof humanity. Is this idea that you're saying of the security truth layer of blockchain is going to become it's very, very important now in a world coin of doing that. I met another group recently doing IT, but letter is working .

on something .

also and try ledges. Got this. Is there one of their big ideas? I I think that's wildly and depressed because how .

we going to molossians that? I mean, how is to our market guys, right? Like I it's so much easier for me to not figure out how a business connected to.

I would just say it's just on china activity, just only the token of the tray, the business. Look, I don't know they'll figure something out, but that's less interesting to me. Then bringing three hundred eighty five million americans of forcing them into using zero, zero knowledge, proof of who you are for all of the U.

S. E. Because government infrastructure, I mean, that that creates a lot of activity, driving licenses, all of that kind of stuff, you know.

So I think that's something that's an area is IT investible for you. Maybe not don't know. I think you're right. The defi still wildly and depressed. I think the poles of capital like Apollo, blackstone are these huge polls will lend into these markets now because it's just lending markets that you know how to do this, but they've not been able to. So we can see a massive amount of liquidity coming .

into these yeah I love the learning boring and business because no one wants to sell their bitcoin. So IT just it's obvious make sense the everyone that ah I was think a recycle, we get hit with something that we never you know anticipated that IT you know you were involved in the art and then F T stuff. Does that come back?

Yeah mean it's already happening. The high end of the art market is ripping and there's very little available already OK because it's a recycling of wealth, right? You know the art market, well, soon as people make money, they buy art.

And that the whole this is plays out here. And if i'm right, goes from three trillions, one hundred trillion in value, even fun wrong by fifty percent. That's a lot of wealth, a huge proposal amount.

Wealth and art will benefit as IT always does. So that ones that ones additional. The other thing that we do need to let me know know if you've seen this yet is an exchange essentially wrapping equities and other assets. F, G, X did a bit of IT yeah that's going to .

generate a lot I think figure is thinking about IT you know, my cagnes firm yeah um I think or nice I do IT instead crack in is talked about IT.

Ah they were looking at buying a broken age at one point .

of traditional brokers to I think the two worlds come together. So I tried that. I don't think the old world just just sap pears. Maybe people with an old road mentality disappear. But I think that IT IT camp there's too much as hundreds.

hundreds trillion robo od probably in to do that .

could be doing in in twenty .

four seven equity trading o there's no reason why that can go on chain. And then you've got this stories of equities, all of gets sword of all of those bloody middleman.

You know what that is? It's just the digitization of ownership, right? It's allowing people to own all different kinds of things, right? You know just what?

So I love because go back about seven years, seven or eight years ago and where you'll over here in the cmon looking at buying gold votes, I was now you don't crp, storage companies, custody companies know and it's so different than that physical. Remember you and I went that bank, we evolve, measuring and up we get gold and how the world has change, right? Physical leadership is so different.

Yeah, yeah. Going to want to a little .

too full .

there.

Well, I was just a so old well compared to the .

day I know IT is IT is funny. Um maybe will be maybe we will be doing this on mars ten years from now, right? I really think you know I can become any single person that's been able to.

And I we're jumping around a lot today, the different topics. But if you just think about you know, we always our job release to think about the future, what's happening, assess the risk and ward of IT. But it's incredible of one person has been able to shape so much. I mean, he bought twitter that was just like yesterday actually and was a real vehicle that tweet, tweet every ten seconds. I don't even and they're interesting good tweets. It's I mean now and then it's writing his companies and he basically his goal in life is you know make us a multiplying eti the species um and he's starting with mars so I don't know the science behind that but you know I not like that maybe really is a thing. I I have a .

lot of wild of thesis about this but the guy is not human, even in the, in the, in the humorous way of not human. How do you run tests less space sex? The largest private satellite ed communication business, a robotics company, a car company, a boring company, A A europe company, then run twitter and be one of the largest tweeters, and now the U. S. government. What about .

video of thing? Is apparently the number one video game guy on that video of this not .

Normal then i'm sorry. I know what you're saying. You're saying it's abNormal. I know it's abNormal. This is and parallel. I even asked ChatGPT, I said, has anybody ever done anything like this before across so many industries and dominated them and every single major, but is like he said, nothing is when nobody comare across the broad range of technology and industries, there's no comparable person in history. I don't know, people might not like him, and I don't care. This guy has made more everything on the line bets on one every single time than any persons i've ever say.

Well, is, you know, and our generation is clearly the sort of most productive, top thinking, active a guy so this .

hope of people in our fifties yeah as the name is us very Younger than me, he's probably .

the same as you yeah lots of it's interesting how different he is also from the boomer ah you know it's there is there is A A transition there and he's and he's out there pumping. Do you should I mean, it's just the funnest thing that we have this doge department which started as a joke on twitter. It's like we're living in the twilight zone, right? Like elon, we you should do those in department of what there's one guy who came up with the idea it's like your banana thing is now on his rocket ships I mean, on his space yeah, look, his rockets have a picture of urban ema is a crazy thing like .

what what world do we in? I know it's and you know here you know and I know he's going to integrate doge coin into the whole payments platform of x course. You will yeah yeah into x eh.

You're going to see the U. S. government.

I don't know about not the U.

S. Government, but into x for fun first. And the guy has got a sensitive humor about the whole thing and that's what you know. I think people really dander that too.

It's kind of it's Ellen's world and we live in IT. Somebody said that it's like we live in a massive game and he's the main he's the only character in the game. We just non player characters in the game.

But it's kind of trees like, oh, I think it's funny if we if we create dose to be the world's gest currency call on the government department over IT stick. But on is on a rocky, I mean, he doesn't care. He just doesn't care.

And you know that one where people, the bigger sponges relieve ing twitter and he basically said, fu, you know, you can f off or F U and decided, like ten times and row you saw them on.

yeah, I did bubba from disney. Fuck you, bob is like, well.

right? Because he was right and he has conviction and the he continues to serve, shape our world more than certainly anybody else. I know I don't know why we've digress onto this, but I know to be some like psychological, sociological, historical shift that's happening now that feels very different than any other time in my life.

It's not just, you know carder a regan which felt like a massive shift. This is, you know yes, the end of sort of woke ness. I feel like he's going that, that whole trend is over. There's some sort of new to think, but it's like a new that's been put forward.

Yeah, the technologists have taken over the White house and that's what IT is. The acceleration is. And technologists, if I don't know if you pretty have a time yet. Mark hand, jacson was on jo rogan .

and last night for three years OK watch IT.

Yeah, he is grinning like a kid. Yeah, he's like, this is the greatest fucking time. Because heat, they were all involved.

All of the crypto packs were involved. Elon was involved, jade vanes of x VC vivid, that whole IT is all an acceleration government. So this is why we have never had a government of this type ever. I don't think anywhere in the world.

yeah. pressure.

So it's exponential age idea.

This is that we finally have acceleration that's explore alist running the government. The government has always been terrible. Uh, you know, I always say charm, he's the first president we ever had that actually you were the S M, P.

Five hundred closed every day. And you know that to me was valuable. He had a sense for the market, and now we are super.

What you picking .

up a guys and IT feels everything feels completely different. And everything that felt bad in the last four years feels god IT feels god IT feels this .

was mark and Jason n was exactly saying is like.

it's all is just overnight. I I don't know what the so we've had a.

we've had a revolution, immutably, or whatever you want to call IT, right? Overthrow government by technologists. To say this is the one way forward, right?

This is the elon thing, is like, we must move we must move forward. That I think we picking up is IT is a the biggest wholesale change is not at the margin change. This is a complete redirection.

It's been developing. I mean, you know many people and I sort of feel myself in this group too but many people the last years were really dissatisfied and you know that woke mind virus thing that you on talks about IT was really real if you lived in amErica um and you know know you really felt that i'm on you know i've been on the board of my school for sixteen years now and you really felt that IT IT was changing things the ib league schools have become terror I mean disastrous like I my school Brown.

I don't even know what happened to IT IT turned into this extremist leffers kind of thing IT was bad before, but IT just became absurd. And now IT just seems like that's just the tip of the ice cream that change. It's a philosopher.

It's not about left or left or right thing. It's a complete restructure of world view and how we the next election will be voted on technology.

It's not the most right thing. You're right. Look at the administration and that that one tweet that he has a that I think is phenomenal. That's what was that we were once all democrats and it's a picture of trump. Kennedy, elon, I forgot the fourth person .

was and gabled .

I was okay is the four of the and that's true I mean, I was never democrat um you know have so I just saying it's incredible that yeah .

Anderson was a was a democrats and which was a and .

now they come together into the republican party because the concept, I think, really a freedom. I think that's what this is. There's a little bit of a libertarian streak to this because you know with Kennedy, it's such A.

I think people were just sick, tired of being told what to do. You know, the regulation that came into, you know, post away in the financial system, uh, people were being told how to think what bathroom they could go into all this kind of thing. You just got too much.

And the technology guys are all about freedom, freedom of information movement, right? Not being stuck in anyone area. Write a lot of the digital no mad concept. So I think that's that's really so if we think about that in the future, how how does that play out?

Well, my view on this is the next election is fought over, you know, don't forget A, I is going to be age by then. You know, the world is very different and was going to be one group though, like slow down. We don't want this in another group, say, let's keep going to miles.

A second holds on a second. Did we just get rid of the slowdown group with this election? Not rider left, but not slow down.

I no I think we perceive that all those who who have more futures minded saw that elon forced IT through. But the other party were fighting a different election. They were fighting, you know, the the the left wing ideology versus the right wing ideology. This was not that, but are .

fighting exactly.

So the next battle will be whoever defines, you know, how much can age? How much can what rights to .

A I have is trying to be a reactionary on this, like what group is going nice in an accident? There has to be something that if things accelerate, there's an accident. Of course, they wouldn't be found. All of those people who say, all, look the x you know what it's like? It's like the people in nineteen fifteen who said, oh, we can all have cars because a car killed somebody on the road and therefore we should stay with our horses and that that is the thing that we're going to have some sort of accident and then you have all those people hand ringing who don't want to, you know, push ahead, right?

That's right. And it'll be to do with A I changing jobs structures as well.

correct?

Could be people are losing jobs is like, well, we don't want them to take over us. It's like pro up the AI and against the A I and the robots coming people that realize amazon, I think now employees more robots than humans and IT keeps accelerating. So they are coming. So that societal shift is going to be very problematic. People don't realized yet, but is going to be very problematic.

It's the the risk takers against the risk aversion people.

yes, and also the people who are optimistic and say, IT will we will figure that out. Of course, we'll make mistakes. They'll be some big messes.

But over time, progress makes humanity Better. And another group will say it's going too fast. We can't keep up.

We don't want IT IT like this is this is definitely right now, feels to me the most optimistic, best, most like, yeah, most optimistic about the future time. I want to say almost ever. I mean, that I recall in the U.

S. Since the nineteen seventies, I mean, there were moments where things were. You know, glitter, you had a positive outlook, but this is this is crazy.

I honestly, I have never then I can feel IT and you can see IT and and just people's reactions and the energy that's paint up that's being let out. And so I yeah what probably happens if we just go to an extreme. So you know the twenties were a great period, the one thousand nine hundred and twenties.

Maybe it's the twenty twenty years we have a rip oring period into twenty twenty nine. And then we have a market that crash is sixty percent. And then on the handers come out and they say, oh, you see all this innovation and they just let do a crash and they forget that of.

you know, my view is that the underlying structure of the economy changes belong to twenty thirteen ways without understand. And so I think if there's a probability of a blow off bubble cycle, it's between now and twenty twenty nine.

This is that I think this is that you're all in max long everything the most, you know future focus stuff. And we're going to leave a lot of people behind a lot, and it's kind of feel bad. But you know, the people were living behind.

Now we need them. They're going to be the buyers in twenty eight and twenty nine. They will panic. And for its human nature, you know, after at the top someone always has to do that yeah um but honestly I I I am gna watch the enduring some thing because um you know I it's right of your street .

street you like .

a yeah but I look I I I feel that I sensitive. It's why I moved into this area. I think all the exciting growth this year and I will see anybody under thirty should be you know who's interested in financial matters you know or value or economic issues um should be in the space. But then it's across the board.

It's interesting because I get lots of, as you will, lots of friends, kids like, can you speak a little journey about what he wants to do? He's IT university studying whatever. And he wants to go work for gold man or work for hedge fund.

So I get them and is a look, do not work in an industry that isn't a secular decline. Yeah, yeah, I got this amazing industry that is growing at a hundred percent year at a minimum. It's always have financing, trading IT, but it's the future.

Just please go do this instead. Yeah, I I put those once a week as well.

Listen, then, fantastic conversation as ever.

And yeah good touch pace. We soon to do this every month or so just to check in. I can't remember what last six months was, but I could not have been anything like this six months.

No, the side ways .

we yeah ways six months from now, I think I could really be, you know, ganging busters yeah I think so. This is twenty .

twenty five going to be interesting year. So I think your numbers are too conservative and I think there's a higher probability of the right tail like a slightly blow off fee cycle, not the big blow off cycle, not the twenty nine cycle. That's what that's what's in my hair ballet ty out, you never know.

We have to see what liquidity y does as well. I am my friend. Good to see you.

I will chat. So so hopefully you enjoyed the conversation with them is always a wide ranging conversation. There's definitely a shift in the landscape. Many of the road blocks for quit her have been cleared. Institutions now don't have a reason not to do IT.

Yes, the regulation is not set yet, but a lot of the hurdles are gone and the world will start shifting faster and Foster to this new technology and these new rails and is there for us as an opportunity to unfun all of our futures. So I really hope you take advantage of that and lets them fuck off futures together. Take care.

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