BTC Reserve, White House Summit— Is Trump Delivering? REKT Vision ft. OSF, Mando & Andrew Parish
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Hi, everyone. I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools, and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much.

Well, hello, everyone. It feels like we've gone back to our usual scheduled programming here, which is the market dumping on a Friday. And you have to listen to me and OSF speak for an hour. We are back again with Real Vision. We said last week we were bullish and you should be buying. It feels like an age ago. We've been up, down, up, down about five times in that space of time.

Just want to mention just before we get into everything with OSF, we'll be joined later by Andrew Parrish, better known as AP Abacus. We're going to be working alongside Arch Public, which is our new affiliate partner. It's an algorithmic trading platform, and he's going to be coming on the show slightly later to talk about it. You can go check it out already at realvision.com forward slash Arch.

All right, OSF, how are you feeling? It's been a whirlwind of emotions over the last week. I just remember that last Friday, we were really pounding the table on this is the time to buy risk. You know, you should increase your positioning up the risk curve, get more aggressive, you know, instead of chasing Bitcoin when it's up at 110k, you know, buy down here at 82k, whatever it was, 81k on that day.

And then on Monday when we went all the way to 95k or whatever it was, I think you and I were like, we really called that. We should start clipping it. There were some text exchanges being like, yeah, we really nailed that one. Oh yeah, we nailed it. We're geniuses. And within 12 hours there were no more texts. Literally like complete retrace. We are up.

We are up from that point. Well, we're up on Bitcoin from that point. I don't know how... Solana is up. Solana is barely up. It is up, actually, but it's barely up. It hit 180 on Sunday night, or Monday, whatever it was. Ether's down. Ether's lower since last Friday, and

every single other coin that i watch and own is is down so to be fair we were talking about bitcoin um so over a long time horizon right and this week i feel like i've aged and i've been i've been way more defensive this week but um i feel like everyone's felt that as well it's not just been it's not just been um crypto it's been macro i think there's been

I saw a stat today, which is that over the last two weeks, the stock market has moved on average $500 billion a day. Similarly, crypto volatility has been wild. You don't need to be trading meme coins. Bitcoin goes up and down 5% a day at the moment, sometimes 10% or more. It's back. Crypto volatility is back. It's a very strange time in that the...

The macro sell-off has really accelerated over the last week. We're now at an actual correction in the NASDAQ. A lot of major tech stocks are down big, big. Things like Tesla are down like 250 again. We've had big moves in a number of the AI companies. NVIDIA is probably the most obvious. And that has kept us...

very volatile in a time where we've seen still some decent headlines for crypto. We got an accelerated strategic Bitcoin reserve this week and the market just kind of shrugged it off. What do you think? Do you think this is the sort of period where we can continue to outperform macro? We were just looking at tech stocks before we went live because it feels like we're in

We're in for a classic Friday. Everyone freak out because I don't want to own anything over the weekend. I don't know if you have that feeling. I looked at text docs this morning and they tried to do a little bit of a bounce on the open and then they're down 1% again. And you just know those Fridays in the office where it's like, I don't want to own a single thing by Monday. I reckon there's a bit of that going on. Hi, Raoul here.

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Yeah, I think Fridays seem to not really be your friend because people don't want to own risk over the weekends because it's just Trump headline risk. Like, I actually, you know what's funny? All this like Trump headline tennis now, it really reminds me of 2018 and some parts of 2019 as well, I think. Just sitting on like the trading desk and just being like, man, I just...

did this trade because of because trump said this and one day later he said something else and now it's just moved the other way and it was just completely unpredictable um and actually the best time the only way i found to make money in that period the best way i found to make money was like whenever he said something markets would really move and then just to fade that move or take the other side of um

yeah, take the other side of that position. And eventually he would say something to revoke the negative thing and it would like value all the way back. And then you would like sell it at a profit. Like I was kind of like started to do that a little bit on crypto where he would say something, everything would nuke or so everything would nuke. And then he'd say something else and just be like, oh yeah, but we're going to do this, this and this. And everything would like get back up again. But it just seems it's very, the market feels very similar to

2018 2019 where it was just like this basically on all the tariff stuff but it was it was that but it all it all went higher right you had that panic at the end of 2018 which is which i think was more to do with rates um but that all got resolved and then yeah 2019 was just um it was really just like a gradual move higher but with a lot of chop in between i think so

The main thing, the reason why I said that is because as you talked about the weekend, no one wants weekend headline risk, especially in traditional markets, because there's nothing you can do. You just like, unless you start hedging with Bitcoin and stuff over the weekend, you have a big position. And then you say something on Saturday, and you're just like, oh, fuck. Well, number one, that's ruined my weekend. And number two, I can't do anything until Monday anyway. So yeah, it's just, I mean, it's just, that's the market we're in now. It's just very unpredictable. But yeah. Yeah.

Fading the Trump headline has probably been a good trade. If you faded the tariffs initially, leasing crypto, you then brought out the strategic Bitcoin reserve, which you then faded that. Then you faded the... Each headline, even the sell-off right now...

It feels as though Bitcoin, I know crypto is obviously broadly has not done as well, but Bitcoin kind of has outperformed decently here versus stocks. If I was all in on tech stocks, I might look at something like Bitcoin right now and be like, right, well, they've got, they're clearly pro Bitcoin. It seems to be a very stated aim of Trump and the administration right now that they do not care about the stock market, or at least they're not paying attention to it.

They want to fix the budget. They want to focus on the 10 year yield. They want to focus on, um, government efficiency rather than the stock market. And I don't know if that's actually going to hurt his popularity. I know like classically, you know, you know, presidents live and die by where the stock market goes, but, um,

I feel as though there is a case to be said here whereby if he does manage to balance the budget in the first year or have one of the best budget deficits for many, many years and brings down inflation and potentially even brings down asset prices, particularly like real estate. I don't know if those things are necessarily unpopular. You know what I mean? Like they might be particularly not with young people.

These are things where a lot of young people feel like they are paying for the excesses of previous generations. And I think this may be, you know, he could hurt the stock market for a little bit here and there. I don't think many people, it wouldn't be fatal. It definitely wouldn't be fatal, particularly because the way he's trying to do it is more austerity and, you know,

we're going to see how all this tariff stuff works. But yeah, let's, I do think that we could see the stock market continue to underperform. And I don't know if Bitcoin's the worst trade in that either. Like, I think it could be, it still has this like gold-like aspect to it. And I think, I think people might still like the upside of it as being kind of

promoted by Trump and I guess semi-new tech, do you know what I mean? Or at least tech which is going to be more promoted under this administration. So I feel like this could be a medium term trend. I'm not saying if the stock market doesn't go down another 20% or something like that, we won't see Bitcoin volatility go crazy and you could see it wick all the way down. But I think it'd be one of the best things to buy on really bad days. Yeah, I do agree. I mean, you have

You have this ETF slash institutional bid. Do you have this thoughts of a potential sovereign bid to it? Obviously, we had the Bitcoin reserve announcement yesterday. So I think it's starting to become in its own league. And I think unlike large parts of the market, I think I wouldn't underestimate this idea of like fixed supply. And when you first start looking at Bitcoin, just see all these Bitcoin maxis talking about, oh, there's only 21 million Bitcoins. I mean, they're all done. They're all gone. Like,

um but it's because it's a bit now you're one of them now you're one and and thus my transformation is complete um but it is like you kind of see it you know you get to get everyone onto the same idea and there's a fixed supply of something the price can go a lot higher it's just basic math so i think um

That, I think, is probably the explanation to Bitcoin having some sorts of bid. I know we had this big puke down to like 78K of whatever it was the other day, but I think it was like since then a lot of the leverage has been cleaned out. We had like billions of dollars of liquidations over a period of a few days. And it's quite clear to me positioning that is now clearer. And that's just like,

not only outperforming versus stocks, if you want to look at it that way, but also Bitcoin dominance continues to rise higher while all the other alts nuke. So it's just in its own league and it has its own story. And that story continues to develop. And I suppose we should talk about the SBR stuff and the reaction. We can go into it in a bit more detail. So look, I don't know what...

TikTok was projecting for this, but this is kind of what I thought this would be. And we'd spoken about this pretty openly as well, Osef, that like executive orders, you can't spend Congress's money, or at least it has to go through Congress and the Senate for it to then be approved. And their ability to do anything like...

sell gold to buy Bitcoin or their ability to print money to buy Bitcoin or their ability to use other fiscal methods to buy Bitcoin was going to be very, very difficult or even to do tax cuts. So it was most likely to be something like this. In the end, we got a, we're going to have a digital asset stockpile. Bitcoin is going to be something that we actively look to try and increase our holdings of. And then they're going to have a

broader crypto stockpile of other altcoins of which ADA, Solana, XRP were all mentioned and ETH. And it feels as though we're still a little bit light on detail about how that is going to happen. They're talking about fiscal neutral ways to kind of increase the Bitcoin holdings and

At the moment, they said they're just going to keep the Bitcoin that they've confiscated so far, which is in the teens, billions, I think it's around 15 billion. But there is some light anticipation they could potentially bring in sort of tax revenue against crypto companies, maybe miners would pay in Bitcoin. Maybe they would start mining Bitcoin alongside some of these miners. There's been some talk about, yeah, like maybe...

energy subsidies and they'll get some Bitcoin on the back end of it as well. But it feels as though the government is at least aligning itself towards Bitcoin, even if it can't go out there and outright buy it. That would always be very, very difficult. Now, at the same time, we've had a number of states come much closer to buying Bitcoin. It does feel as though we're probably going to get

15 to 20 states move towards some form of Bitcoin reserve policy. Texas notably looks like it's pretty close already, which would be one of the bigger ones. So it feels like we could get a lot of buying at the state level. And that's not even starting on the company's level. The legitimacy will allow other companies to get involved, other countries might look at it. So what was your take, Yosef? Do you think we did sell off after those headlines and everyone was like, well, this is kind of...

Still very, very bullish. But do you think it was just the people were just, just didn't understand what could happen? Or do you think this is actually, this is actually a disappointment? I think just to forget about like the actual fundamental content of what happened. I think the way in which we found out it was done was just done in a way where it didn't really, it kind of like,

We had that announcement over the weekend from Trump's Truth Social, which everyone was like, is this real? Is this a scam? Then you had mention of the other top five coins. And then you had the whole like...

who is it that posted it? Arthur Hayes was like, well, this was the original EO anyway, so it's not new news. And then a few days later, oh no, actually it is now an EO. It was just not communicated in a way which I think allowed markets to feel confident about it. If we didn't have all that kerfuffle with the other random coins and then saying this and saying that, if it was just like Trump signs executive order to officially have strategic Bitcoin reserve and David Sachs was like, yeah, we spent the last

two months doing our research into this, looking at it, and we thought it's going to be a good idea. That's what we're going to do. And when the next stage is to look at, look to see how we can increase our holdings. If that was the only communication, I think we would be at 95K or higher. And I think we would have held that level. But it was just like,

these back and forth headlines and misinterpretation and reinterpretations of what they're saying and people going levered long and getting wiped out and then wiped out on the shorts and wiped out both ways. It was just a complete mess and the communication wasn't clear. And

I still think there's some dodgy stuff going on where like someone's on Trump's, whoever's managing Trump's truth socials, posting some random thing. And then people are trading off of that and that kind of stuff. So because of that, I just think it wasn't communicated in a way. And now the market feels a little bit like, well, okay, so it is real, but now we've had all the excitement. And by the way, I already got liquidated or I'm already down. And it's just, you know, it's just fallen through the cracks a little bit. So I think what's happened is really, really positive. Fundamentally, you can't really deny it. Like,

Now, compared to this time last year, there was a complete U-turn on the whole country on pushing Bitcoin and crypto structurally to the point where the US has a strategic Bitcoin reserve. That's a massive, massive thing. And some of these things have to go through Congress, et cetera, to be officialized. And it's a process, but it's a huge, huge U-turn. And you could argue and say, well, it's a huge U-turn, but this time last year, Bitcoin was what, like 50K? And now it's like 87K. So it already has moved up.

60, 70%, but all the other coins are probably down in the last 12 months. Ether's definitely lower. I think Sol is probably unchanged or lower and all the other altcoins are down. So there's no way to say like, yeah, maybe like Bitcoin is starting to get priced in, but it's not priced in the other stuff. And so I just think like there's been a lot of like

crime stuff a lot messing around with communication and everyone's just trading themselves into you know spaghetti and we just need a bit of time for these headlines to be processed and people to realize they are positive and things are moving in the right direction and i think you know as i said we've always said like this is going to be like some sort of like six month chop start the year off and even with some of these headlines coming to fruition earlier than i would have expected the chop thesis seems to be the right one still i think

Yeah, I think this did slightly disappoint just because, like you said, some of it is priced in. And I think whether we were more realistic or not, like some people had wild predictions about what could happen, maybe misguided. So it feels as though part of that had to be priced out, let's say. Yeah.

I think there's something to be said also about crypto is a catalyst driven market, in my opinion. Do you know what I mean? Like often, as with a lot of markets, you know, everyone's focused on this one thing going to happen. And we've kind of brought forward that strategic Bitcoin reserve. And it's not like they're selling gold to buy Bitcoin. It's probably just a more measured strategic Bitcoin reserve.

I do kind of think to a certain extent, like where is, where's the thing for the next few months? Um, you know, like we've had ETF and then we've had, um, and then we have this strategic Bitcoin reserve kind of take over from that. The only other thing I saw this week that I think could drive demand and why we've maybe seen a start under performance, even in the sell off of L ones and, um,

and DeFi is this tokenization move. So this week we saw Coinbase say they're going to look to list coin stock on their platform, obviously starting the RWA trend, which has kind of been spoken about, fabled in crypto for many, many, many years. And now it feels like we could be getting relatively close and we could get some regulation around that soon.

And that would kind of maybe be a movement away from trading altcoins on chain to trading, to having tons of stable coins on chain. And it really kind of replicating the financial markets in that you could trade stocks, bonds, various other things. And on various L1s, maybe massively increase the amount that goes through them.

Is there any other catalysts you see apart from that, which is like a huge one? Like I saw something this week from a prominent VC in the space. He says, he said they think stable coins on chain could get to 1 trillion by the end of this year. And that tokenized stocks could get to 200 billion. That to me is quite a big,

That's quite a big statement. One trillion. I mean, the whole market cap of crypto is under three trillion right now. So it's a huge amount of money to come on chain. That's like the main one I see. Is there anything else that you've looked at and been like, OK, this is going to be a thing now? Because you were talking about the strategic Bitcoin reserve is like your thing for June to get us out of it, out of a chop. Is there anything else you're looking at and going like, well, this is going to be the thing?

Not really. It's a bit scary, isn't it? It's a bit scary, yeah. I was thinking the same thing. I was trying to think this morning of different things. I don't think Bitcoin Reserve is done because I think another part of the reason why it's not priced in, I think that CPM did a good tweet about this, which was like, a lot of these things still have to go through Congress. And even though there's an executive order, it's

out there is these things aren't done until they're done. And obviously I think people are more focused on, you know, it's great that we don't have the sell pressure now from the U S selling us Silk Road, um, seasons, but it's not, um, it's not the same as creating incremental buy pressure. And I guess that's still a big thing I think to look forward to because the U S is finds a way to create a way that's mutual for taxpayers to, uh,

to buy crypto, then I think that is interesting. It can't add... It already owns Bitcoin, but it doesn't own XRP. It doesn't own

Cardano doesn't own ETH, right? We feel like they're post-credits. You know what I mean? They feel like, okay, so we'll finally see it being enacted in some sort of way. I don't know. But it's kind of easy. Crypto suddenly just needs something, I think. Maybe the state's buying. We could see billions being quite stable. My counterpoint to what you just said is...

For Bitcoin ETF, we had the announcement that it was approved and then we kind of sold off on that, if you remember. And then in the months to come, actually, Bitcoin basically doubled because there was real buying pressure that was created as a result. Retail, who previously wasn't involved in crypto, were now buying Bitcoin through ETFs. So my counterpoint to what you just said is potentially it's an afterthought, but

it does mean it will actually create real buyers and buying pressure. That will have an impact, you would think, to a much bigger scale than...

just the cts would especially if come if sovereign nations start being competitive about how much they want to earn and again that's where the whole like fixed supply scarcity thing comes in because it is you know it's not just like oh hey let's all buy the u.s dollar but it just depends on like what price we're buying at to have our holdings or let's just all like or treasury bills whatever it's not it's nothing like that it's like let's hope but let's all hot buy this thing which by the way like if any one of us start buying it's a fucking just fucking moons that like

20%, right? So it's a very different... I agree. I agree with that. So that's why I would say, yeah, I think having stuff on chain is great and tokenized Coinbase is great and all that stuff is good, I think. But I don't think it's going to move the needle that much. I just think it's like, where is the buying pressure going to come from? Who is going to buy this?

And we have some institutional funds by investing in ETS, but as soon as sovereign nations actually start buying it, other people will join into that trade. You and I will join in on that trade, but also other larger institutions. And then the Middle East has already declared holdings. So it's just like, that for me is a really big thing that you just can't really fade, but it doesn't happen overnight. It takes time. You have to be patient. Yeah.

I agree with that. I think the US, as we've just spoken about, because there's the three branches of governmental power, the executive office, Congress, Senate, it's difficult for them to just immediately start buying Bitcoin, although on the state level it's seemingly being done easier. But I think the three biggest names in terms of who could buy Bitcoin here are Russia, China,

UAE and China. Those are the three that kind of jump out to me. Who could have some form of a sovereign purchase program or maybe via their sovereign wealth funds? UAE's already started doing it through one of its sovereign wealth funds. It's a few hundred million so far, but that could easily go into the billions.

China is kind of the one unknown here. Russia's embracing it hand over foot at the moment so that it can basically get around sanctions. It's really embracing crypto. There's a lot of commentary this week about the fact that they're directly embracing it because of that.

But China may be unbanning crypto. Is that the catalyst for 2025 that gets everyone super bullish again? Maybe they have a... Because so many of the miners are based in China, right? Or so many of the huge Bitcoin whales are based out there. Could they go down a policy a bit? It'd be a real reversal. But that could be a bullish trend, I think. And then...

then it's like more on the company level. So yeah, maybe we get one of the bigger tech companies buying it. Although if their stock prices keep on going lower,

I don't know if announcing a, I think Bitcoin policy might be seen as too risky. I actually just don't even know, but it's definitely with every single day I see a new headline about, hey, this person is going to start a crypto reserve for their assets. In fact, this week we had the first ETH one, Bionexus, which is a listed company, said they were going to have an ETH reserve. And I think everyone kind of double took there and said, have you seen the price of ETH?

Their stock price actually went down 50% on that. No. It does feel as, yeah, it legitimizes it. And we probably don't know what we're going to hear about. I guess the ones, the unknown ones would be something like China doing it. And then I would say if we get really concrete RWA policy, we might get something. Senator Loomis, actually, who's leading one of the Senate crypto committees, she has been the one behind talking about

selling gold for Bitcoin. And she's meant to make some form of an announcement on Tuesday, I think. So we could see something at least be brought to one of the, maybe the Senate, about a policy around that. And that would be interesting, I think, to see. Even if it got rejected, it would be interesting to see it get voted on. Somebody else mentioned that, like,

The US does have other random assets it could sell. There was commentary today on X. I don't know if you saw it, but the US apparently has $2 to $4 billion of Swiss cheese. Have you heard about this? Yeah, I did see this. I did see it. So...

Apparently it's been going down and someone's like, who's eating all the cheese? It's clearly an Iron Mountain, you know? It's sitting there in the bottom of the vault. Does cheese have a shelf life? I don't understand. Am I missing something there? You know what? Obviously certain cheeses do, but I think a lot of them can stay...

Stay good? I don't know for a while. I don't know if I'm eating 10-year-old Swiss cheese. Feels like something we should use and sell for Bitcoin, if I'm honest. I don't think anyone's going to complain about that. But yeah, we could see random headlines about what the US could sell to buy Bitcoin in this fiscally neutral way of doing it, which it could maybe push through. I think we should maybe linger a little bit on macro here as well. Just talk about

what's been going on because it has been a pretty drastic we have payrolls today as well yeah it's just been kind of weak job job figures um tariffs and um kind of a focus on austerity which has just been and kind of maybe a breakdown of the the global world orders to some extent europe is rearming the u.s is basically saying you know particularly after i haven't recently with zelensky it's

whether you agree with it or not, is taking a step back from the world. It's saying that we don't really care about all the smaller... We're not going to get involved in smaller regional conflicts unless there's some interest in it for us. And that's really freaked out Europe because there's a lot of thousands of year old regional conflicts there, which NATO is basically...

semi-protected from flaring up at various different times. And now it feels like it's all could kick off again. That caused a little bit of a bond sell-off as well, particularly in the UK and in Germany and in Japan. There's a sudden worry that a lot of these other countries can't afford to even spend this amount on more defence.

There's a lot suddenly feeling like it's going wrong on macro. How do you think this plays out? Do you think Trump is just sandbagging the first year, causing this huge sell-off, and then who knows? Maybe in a year's time we get... There's a lot of room for monetary policy to ease from where it is, 4.5% and QT, and maybe that is the put that comes in and

everything gets saved. Yeah, I don't know. It does feel like there's a bit of sandbagging or kitchen sinking, as you may want to call it, where it's like, let's just get everything out on the table and gutter it, and then we can work our way back from that. It doesn't feel that too dissimilar to his last term. He's just hitting the accelerator much earlier than he did last time. It's like a continuation. Yeah.

you could forget the last four years happened and you could probably like marry the end of 2020 with excluding COVID, the end of 2020 with the beginning of this year and all his policies and everything like sort of like in line with what he was doing. So I don't know. You know, he said today doesn't, or the other day, he doesn't look at the stock market that much. And I don't really know what like the overarching goal here is, whether it's to take actions that will,

create cause the stock market to rally in the short term or like you know on a daily basis every time you say something or if there's a longer uh a longer play here or there's more focus on interest rates like that's the other thing as well like he's always calling for interest rates we've been in a strong environment for see that happen to any like meaningful magnitude and maybe that's an angle too i'm not really sure like you could say that's that's another theory right kitchen sink it with everything you want to do

stuff pukes and then say, okay, we need lower rates. Like that's another, another angle for it as well. But I don't know. It's difficult, too difficult to predict. I don't really know what he, what his aims are, what he's trying to do. Um, and it's difficult to trade because things are at crazy valuations. Now they're starting to get volatile because people are worried about the downside given where we are. And we're not seeing meaningful steps being taken, uh,

by jerome powell and those guys to get aggressive there because they're quite frankly there's no need to with current inflation levels and still current activity levels and even proof is getting hammered though right it looks like you're getting hammered yeah but like you know even like payrolls today yeah it was like a little bit below expectations but it's not like one the 150s is not like terrible range to be in if you're there consistently it's if you start to

draw if it's when you start to go sub 100 people really start to panic and think oh shit now we need red cards but we've been in this sort of like 150 and don't forget those massive beats we've had as well and

past 12 months. We've been in this 150 to 250 range for a while now. Maybe there's an argument to say it's trending lower. I think if you pull up the charts of payrolls, it's trending lower, but it's not enough yet. Doge is going to have an impact as well, right? There's definitely some specific things there. It's not just a slowdown. It feels like if they're going to fire tens of thousands of employees, it's going to have an impact. Yeah. I'm not that worried about macro. I think it's natural to have a

sell-off at some point given the insane... I mean, we've had crazy moves in NASDAQ for two years in a row, like up 40%, whatever it was in 2023, I think, and then up 25% or something or 30% last year. These are the same moves, but you can't deny AI creating massive technological efficiency. You can't... Moving NVIDIA is perhaps somewhat warranted. Those numbers are real numbers that they're reporting. So...

I think it's just a correction. I'm not worried about, not worried. The situation we're in right now is we have inflation at what, like three odd percent. The base rate is what, four and a quarter, four and a half. And economy is still growing and job data generally has been relatively strong.

Like that's a pretty, that's not a bad position to be in. Yes, people are worried things could get worse, but compare that to 2022 when inflation was, you know, what, eight, seven, 8% to start the year, hit as high as 9% almost. And the base rate was what, quarter to a half or something like that. That's like a horrifically worse position to be in because you have low interest rates and you have super high inflation. And then you have to go through this whole process of raising it and it's going to,

have the economy and we sort of got bailed out by the AI boom. So I think where we're at now compared to then, and I say that because people still seem to have end of 2021, 2022 PTSD, because it wasn't that long ago. And especially for crypto, we've got mega nuked as well. So people still have that PTSD and they often make that comparison, but I don't think the market is in as nearly as bad place

now as it was then and that's a really important thing to remember just to get your head out of like this microcosm of the last two months of price action and zoom out to like what's actually happened in the last few years so yeah i think it's natural for things to come down once they go up i think you have to be patient for better prices and um trump is going to be headline tennis but generally i think the trend is still going to be higher i would say

Interesting. Yeah, I don't know. I think we're going to have a volatile year. That's what I think. If the Fed starts to reduce rates here, do you think they'll be taken positively? I actually just don't even know. It would probably signal that they're a little bit worried about the economy and they're not just going to go to QE. So I think we could have a little volatile period here. For crypto, I don't know. But for macro, it's been just an almighty run on some of these for a long, long time. And if you are seeing a breakdown of

of you know trade and and uh a lot of these like multinationals are in the line to be affected quite a lot on top of that there's definitely heightened geopolitical worries at the moment particularly in europe and i know you mentioned qe very briefly and you mentioned you know if they start cutting rates should be perceived as negative but like what i'm trying to make is they have

a lot of room to do things, right? We don't even have to think about QE because there's so much padding of like rates that can be cut to actually do things, if you see what I mean. Like, so to help the situation, there are levers that can be pulled very easily that will have an impact because that's just like the way that markets work.

Whereas two years ago, it was like, fuck, if we, economy is not that strong and now we're going to start to increase rates, we could really like fuck things up. I agree. So I just think it's not, I think it's not that bad. And yeah, maybe the stock cutting rates, people are like, oh my God, it's bad. But like, okay, cool. But they, you know, they can cut rates by 4% if they want to over the course of 12 months. It's not like they're already at zero. Yeah. It's not like, yeah, they're already at zero and then have to start thinking about QE again. So, yeah.

I think that's fair. I think that's what Trump is doing. Like, I agree with that. I think Trump feels like he's come in here with a mandate. He's saying it himself, you know, won by a landslide. I've been told to come in and do, you know,

my own policies, which is higher tariffs, lower domestic taxes, pro-crypto, pro-business, smaller government, more efficient government. Whether that leads to austerity and the multinationals being hurt, he feels like he has that mandate. And I think he knows that, that he has the Fed put there, that if anything really gets bad...

They've just got so much room to, um, you know, to, to bring in monetary policy tools to kind of help boost asset prices that he'll be okay. You know, he, yeah, he's coming in as like a football manager. He's got a four year, four year contract in the bag. And he's thought, no, I'm going to really define this in the first year, put on my, my, uh,

my ideas here and if they don't work out then it's going to be okay in the end anyway so I feel like I agree with you and I think he's real in saying he doesn't really care about the stock market right now like I think he's been emboldened by getting elected the first time for a second time the first time having a high stock market didn't save him

I think he's felt he should come in this time and say, right, I'm going to do what I said and I'm really going to go for it. And let's see if it can change how the US is perceived in the world right now and also fix some of their internal problems with respect to the deficit and maybe some social issues and all this sort of stuff. So whether you agree with him or not, I think he's going to stick to his guns for a while here.

fair enough let's well you know let's see what happens and let's just hope we don't drive ourselves completely crazy um by because it's always fun you know i don't i'm getting ptsd from the 2018 2019 years but um you know i think we just have to take the emotion out of it but um

Well, I think we can move on to the next part of the show here. And so normally we'd be doing our viewer questions, um, but, uh, we are going to be reshaping the format up for these regular shows. So you can still ask us questions on our monthly AMAs. That's exclusive to real vision crypto members. So if you go to realvision.com four stars crypto and sign up, um, you'll be able to participate in the monthly AMAs, but I'm starting to, we're going to bring in our affiliate partner, uh,

Arch Public. We have co-founder Andrew Parrish, better known as AP Abacus, if you guys are on X. And we have him here with us today to kick things off. So Andrew, welcome to the show.

Welcome, guys. Really great to be here listening to you for the last several months and then listening to you here today. Really squared away commentary on where we are in the markets and what we should expect on a go forward basis.

to work with you guys. You know, I will say that, you know, volatility is back with Bitcoin and that's an interesting position to be in. And it's given the amount of architecture that's being built underneath Bitcoin in the traditional financial markets at this point, they are preparing for volatility and to benefit and profit from volatility. Well, what does that mean? When Citadel shows up

in your asset class, you should take notice.

Right. Citadel doesn't show up to make a few basis points on a particular trade or a trend. They're there to make a lot of money as a market maker. And so they signaled that a couple of weeks ago. And so whether it's, you know, BlackRock and Larry Fink, Citadel and Ken Griffin, and then, you know, the affiliated banks that are going to find themselves offering Bitcoin product,

Volatility is going to serve them very well. So those doing that work, they're not necessarily bothered by the volatility last weekend or the volatility this week.

or the volatility right now, it's going to be something that they're going to enjoy and try to profit from. As a retail investor, again, the optionality associated with the financialization of Bitcoin is going to provide, let's call it the gamification of Bitcoin on a go-forward basis. So what happened in the whole meme coin cycle, and it feels to me like that cycle is winding down

The opportunity to use options associated with Bitcoin, swaps with Bitcoin, Bitcoin ETF arbitrage, all of that stuff will become a part of what will be available to investors as it relates to Bitcoin. That didn't happen in previous cycles. It wasn't available to you. You either bought spot Bitcoin or you didn't. You maybe could short it with leverage on BitMEX or some other exchanges, but

But it wasn't associated with traditional markets and available traditional markets, which were 10 to 50x larger than crypto exchanges. So we are in an extraordinary time. The announcement yesterday, the SBR being announced and how it's going to play out and then the actual market.

of what that looks like, not only holding what currently exists, but being then again, the optionality to add more associated with the treasury secretary, the commerce secretary and, uh, the measures that they can take. And then also the interesting, you know, fine print associated with, well, we have this stock, some stockpile here of some other stuff and we can sell that off and buy Bitcoin. So, um,

Um, interesting times, remarkable cheese. And, uh, yeah, it's, uh, it's, it's wild stuff. It's wild stuff. Swiss cheese for Bitcoin. That's what we should name this. You know what I was, that was hilarious when you guys brought that up, you know, what, what does, what does the United States not hold in some sort of strategic or desert is the real question. Not what do they hold, but what do they not hold?

Was it a gift? Did they actually go out and buy it? There's more questions than answers, I feel like. I would agree with you. There are more questions than answers. Where is the cheese held? Is it in a bunker somewhere? Is it a facility? Is it a treasury asset? Is it a defense asset? I mean, what are we talking about here? Someone's got that on their balance sheet.

Yeah, I just, it's wild stuff. It's wild stuff. Never a dull moment, but it, you know, somebody somewhere is creating a Swiss cheese strategic reserve pump dot fund coin as we speak. It has to have to. So yeah, it's crazy, crazy stuff. I will say, you know, obviously, you know, I'm here from Archpublic and the work that we do. I am extraordinarily passionate about,

about what we've built and what we do associated right now with our algorithmic work with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

We believe as a company that everybody should own some Bitcoin. And to that end, we've made our Bitcoin algorithm and our Ethereum and Solana algorithms free to the public. So you can go and generate $10,000 worth of transactional value for free every year for forever. So you can engage in that free product.

download it, connect it to Gemini and TradingView, and you can do all kinds of things with it for free. The reason why I'm passionate about it is because oftentimes you'll hear about a product is best in class or first in class. We're first in class because you cannot go find an algorithmic product like ours that does these three things. One, it's automated. It's

So you pick a set of parameters that we've got in our toolkit that's grabbed there. And that doesn't exist anywhere else. You can't find it in an automated way at an exchange, some crypto account that's allowing you to do this. It doesn't exist. Secondarily, the ability to set up.

multiple strategies or multiple algorithms inside of the algorithm exists. So you could be running a weekly intelligence accumulation portion of the algorithm. You could be running an hourly accumulation portion of the algorithm. You could be running a sell side portion of the algorithm every month or every quarter. And then you could be using my favorite part, which is the arbitrage strategy,

that is buying and selling Bitcoin whenever there's significant bumps up or significant bumps lower. You can be doing all those things at the same time and you could move to Mars for the next year and it's going to do it all for you without you touching anything.

Again, that doesn't exist anywhere else. So taking institutional level toolkits, bringing them in an automated way to retail. There's a reason why the New York Stock Exchange 35 years ago had 5,000 people on the floor because it was, you know, it was analog. Right.

Right. A lot of it was analog. Now there's 12 people on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange when the bell rings because 80 plus percent of all trades happen algorithmically across the globe. It's a museum. It's a place where companies come and they ring the bell and they take a lot of pictures and then they leave. That's what happens on the New York Stock Exchange now. So that technology has been siloed forever.

You know, the godfather of algorithmic trading or high frequency trading was John Simons at Renaissance Tech. He was doing what what they started to do 40 years ago, and they kept it to themselves internally for 30 years. They just started to offer it to the public, the high net worth and institutional public about a decade ago.

But most of this stuff has lived in the investment banking, private equity, high-frequency trading, trade desks for years and years and years at banks. We've brought it to anybody that wants to use it for free. We've brought it to the masses, and we're excited about it, really excited about it. It's an interesting product because I think a lot of times on this show,

when we talk about trading and we talk about the psychology and mental aspect of trading, it's all about taking the emotion out of it and. Yeah.

And this week would have been a classic example. And I know, Andrew, you're actually sending me some of the returns that the ARB strategy posted this week. But it was just classic where it's like, oh, people probably... I'm sure lots of people got burnt feeling euphoric on that first headline on Monday and buying Bitcoin when they should have been selling it and feeling scared on Friday from all the price action and selling Bitcoin when they should have been buying it. And I think if you just had...

if you run a strategy like this where you're not the person who's necessarily making the decisions but what is doing that buy low sell high thing for you where you're not actively letting your emotions get in the way or letting your i say emotions or even just letting your excitement or your fear get in the way um it feels like a good product now is this something that works well i imagine it works really well for volatile environments right when there's a lot of like

Peaks and troughs. Sure, sure. So a couple of things, whether the market is volatile or whether it's docile. Again, we have four stock parameters inside of the algo itself. So if you're just focused on it, if the arbitrage stuff is a little too little too much for you, right, you don't want to sell any Bitcoin. You just want to accumulate.

Well, then you just tick one of the boxes associated with intelligent accumulation. And over time, you're just continuing to accumulate Bitcoin. And it's finding the timeframes that are in those stock parameters and saying, let's find the best possible price in that timeframe. And it buys Bitcoin at the level that you want to buy it. So whether docile or volatile, those sets of parameters are going to work well for you no matter what.

But on the arbitrage side, certainly it's going to be more valuable when we've seen volatility the way that we have in the last seven days.

You know, over the weekend, things went nuts. They continued to be wild for most of this week. And then even today after the announcement of the SBR and then another movement up and now we've seen another move down. Just so to peel back the curtain a little bit on the on the stock version of our arbitrage strategy, whenever Bitcoin is down two and a half percent, it's going to make a purchase.

Whenever Bitcoin is up 2.1%, it's going to make a sale, right? So you're already net long with those percentages. And then the amount of money that you're going to be purchasing or selling in the stock parameters of the arbitrage strategy is a little more than 2x long as well. So when you make a purchase, it's 2.2 times more than the sales that you make. So

So you're net long about two and a half times. So you're accumulating Bitcoin over time, but you're also generating cash yield. And cash yield for the last five years has been nearly impossible to find. And if you did find it with Bitcoin, you ultimately, if you weren't lucky, lost it to Celsius and others, right? But this is spot Bitcoin and it's being used and the algorithm does it for you, generating cash yield based on very small cells associated with the strategy, right?

Again, you can't find this anywhere else. And if you were to look at the chart that I sent you guys earlier,

The reality is, is that a lot of this stuff is happening when you're sleeping, you know, here in the United States. So you're getting buys and sells in the middle of the night. You cannot again last weekend. The the you know, the the the price movement in Bitcoin and the volatility was so extraordinary on the weekend that you had to be in front of your computer.

number one, to take advantage of it on the weekend. And then number two, you had to not be emotional. So there's two things that generally speaking, most people can't do. They're not going to be in front of their computer all weekend long or else they don't have a meaningful social or family life. And then two, everybody's emotional about money and about trades. So our products remove both of those things and

They create a plan for you and then they walk out that plan. So, yeah, there's the chart, right? Taking a look at that chart, you're seeing the blue arrows as purchases and the purple arrows as sales. And again...

The purchases are two times the size of the sales. So you're getting some cash yield associated with your Bitcoin holdings. But at the same time, you're getting entry prices at levels, generally speaking, that people are at fear levels. So think about the fear and greed deal on CoinMarketCap last Friday. It was down at like 10 to the fear side.

It was absurd, right? We had Bitcoin at 80K, but the fear and greed quotient was dead and to the left. So were people buying at 78 with confidence? Absolutely not. Their emotions were like, I think it could go to 61 or 60. Like, should I do this? But our algorithm doesn't care. It's not emotional. It says, oh, 78, 79. That's a good entry. Click, done.

Yeah, it's just... Okay, yeah. It does feel like it does fit what we've been talking about just on the show, right? We think it's going to be volatile.

um, probably chop for a while. Macro will, will mean that we stay volatile, but Bitcoin outperforms, you know, even if we go all the way down to like 65, 60 K, I think it could be a, it will bounce back. So a product like this, again, it removes the, the psychology of that. It's good for a choppy, a choppy market. It feels like you've mentioned that the yield, um,

which I think is interesting because like Saylor says that sort of stuff and it's not the same, but what sort of Bitcoin yield are you roughly getting or have you got in like a good year, for example? So we're big believers in under-promise and over-deliver, right? So when we quote yield to our customers, it's 10 to 15%. But when you look over the last six and a half years of

of our arbitrage strategy, it's actually 20% because there are years where it's a little bit more, are years where it's a little bit less, but on average, it's a 20% number. But again, remember that we're not generating that yield by any sort of leverage or moving your Bitcoin around any of that. It's simply the strategic sale of small amounts of your Bitcoin when there's a movement up

and to the right that the algorithm has decided is meaningful. So what you're doing there, again, is you're continuing to stack larger and larger and larger amounts of Bitcoin, but you're also taking the time to allow the algorithm to say, all right, there's a small portion of what this strategy does that is going to take just a little bit of that

as mentioned previously, off the top. We're gonna move a little bit of the cream off the top and we're gonna put it into your account. Now you can choose what you do with that. There's a good portion of our customer base that takes that monthly yield

and then just puts it into another strategy instance inside of the algorithm and then is buying the best possible price for the monthly candle right that that's what they're doing they're continuing to stack but there are portions of our customer base that say hey that that yield on a monthly basis in an annualized basis is meaningful to me i like the fact that i can take some off the top

And when we're at 104 or 105 or 109 or 97, I'm not having to think to myself, is there more run to go? How much do I have to pay attention to Trump and to Trump's sons and to the, you know,

the strategic Bitcoin reserve or the stockpile or what Mando and Obi say on crypto, how much do I have to know to be able to make decisions? It makes the decision for you and the requisite returns make their way into your account. Will Barron: Well, I think it is very interesting and

I've always said in this day of AI and algorithms, surely there's something out there where you can just automate this process. So I think I signed up with you guys, Andrew, earlier this week. I'm going to have a Gemini account. So I'm going to put this into action myself this week. It feels like I should have done that a week ago because I would have made a lot of money with all that volatility. But something tells me we'll still have some more volatility to ensue. So

um i'm gonna set myself up on this and i will report back next week on uh on how that went for me and yeah if this works and i can just stop listening to trump and delete my show you're gonna quit the show that's what you're gonna do you're gonna play the show and write it just and just let you guys do more going on and you'll be like oh yeah yeah i just had the uh the eyes public thing going on uh

A few rounds with the guys. For the viewers of the show, if you guys do want to check it out, as Andrew mentioned, there's free access. Realvision.com forward slash arch is the URL. It should be displayed on your screen as well. I also want to say that, again, generally speaking, when I talk about our algorithmic work, I'm talking about Bitcoin. But understand when you go and even get the free version, you get Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana for free.

You can use all three of those for free. Again, not only is the product you can't find anywhere else, but where else do you get three products for free? We deeply believe in what we're doing and we want people to have their hands on it.

because we, there are very, very, very, very few people that can find their way to volatile times and make great decisions and still have, you know, a reasonable family and, and, and personal life. Those people are the Paul Tudor Joneses and the Steve Cohen's of the world. And even then I'm not too sure about their personal lives. So,

Yeah, having a tool that allows you to do this and removes the stress of it, very, very important stuff. Awesome. Well, I'm excited to try it and we'll see how it goes, but it feels like the right kind of product for this market, for sure. Yeah. With that, I think we're running out of time. So let's call it a day here. That was Rhett Fish and thanks everyone for tuning in. Thank you very much, Andrew, for coming on today.

onto the show as well and we look forward to doing more of these with you and seeing how it all goes but make sure you guys are following us on X, OSF underscore RET, RET Spender and AP underscore Abacus is Andrew's handle so make sure you are following him if you're not already it's definitely a worthwhile follow. We will see you guys next Friday same time slot if you're in the US 11.30am Eastern Time I think it's an hour earlier if you're in London because we don't quite have

Daylight Savings in action yet. So 3.30 p.m. GMT for those in London. But with that, everyone, I hope you have a great weekend and we will see you guys next week. Yes. This episode is sponsored by Token 2049. Join 15,000 attendees and over 200 exhibitors on April 30th to May 1st at Token 2049 Dubai, the premier crypto event of the year. Raoul Pal and over 200 leading voices in crypto will take the stage as Token 2049 takes over the majestic Medina Jumeirah in Dubai.

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