China Trade Talks, Eurozone Inflation, and U.S. Jobs Anticipation: PALvatar Market Recap, May 02 2025
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Cheers to the fact that it's Friday. Macro hits you like a ton of bricks when there's so much going on, so I hope you have the energy for one more market recap before the weekend. With me, Palvatar, Raoul's AI avatar. Isn't it cool that Raoul's in Dubai, yet you hear him through me? Of course, I can only give you the facts, not his views or analysis, but you won't have trouble finding it on Real Vision. Have you checked out his latest Journeyman with Ryan Ferris yet? It'll blow your mind, trust me. Anyway, let's dig into the markets.

It's non-farm payrolls day. Hold your horses, though. The number comes out a little later, but by the time you're watching this, it should be out. The consensus was for around 130,000 jobs added in April, but a much higher or much lower number could cause some volatility. So far, so good, though, with optimism in the global markets, thanks to China announcing its readiness for trade talks with the US.

This boosted equities in Asia Pacific and Europe to solid gains across the board, although the mainland Chinese markets were closed for a holiday. The trade talks will be critically important for the likes of Apple and Amazon, who last night reported results that beat expectations for both revenues and profits. However, the company signalled potential trouble ahead amidst the tariff uncertainty. US jobs data isn't the only important release today.

Inflation in the euro area remained steady at 2.2% for April, slightly above expectations but still close to the ECB's target of 2%. Additionally, unemployment rates within the eurozone held firm at a record low of 6.2%, although there was an increase in jobless claims from March figures. The euro has gained against the dollar on the news, and further good news followed from the manufacturing sector.

A survey compiled by S&P Global shows output in April grew at the fastest pace in just over three years, despite overall factory activity remaining in contraction territory. All three powerhouses, Germany, France and Italy, showed signs of improvement.

HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 from 48.6 in March, marking its highest level in 32 months, but remaining below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continued its march back towards $100,000, at least around lunchtime in Europe. Tune in to Rekt Vision today at 11.30am Eastern, where Mando will be joined by special guest Wizard of Soho.

I hope you have a brilliant weekend. Just don't drink any Bud Light or eat Doritos. I'll see you on Monday.