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Global Macro: Tariffs and the Fed Policy ft. Joseph Wang
2025/2/11
Real Vision: Finance & Investing
Joseph Wang: 我认为目前联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)内部存在分歧。虽然鲍威尔主席和沃勒理事偏鸽派,但一些新成员较为鹰派,导致决策更加谨慎。市场目前预计今年只会降息一到两次,我认为这过于保守。沃勒理事最近表示,如果通胀数据低于预期,他愿意在今年上半年降息至少一次。鲍威尔主席也在淡化通胀的粘性,暗示通胀将是暂时性的。我认为,随着租金等领先指标显示住房通胀将放缓,市场最终会更加理性,可能会预计今年降息多达四次,甚至更多,具体取决于股市表现。
Ash Bennington: 正如你所指出的,中性政策利率,自然利率,R-star,无论你想怎么称呼它,都不是可以直接查找的东西。它只能从其他指标推断出来。了解相对于R-star利率,是踩油门还是踩刹车,这变得棘手,具有挑战性。关于失业率,让我们问你一下。显然,最近的数字是在1月早些时候出来的,我相信是1月10日,这是来自劳工统计局的12月失业报告,4.1%。美联储是否关注4%的门槛,仅仅因为它具有头条数字效应,很多人显然会关注这个比率,U3比率,以了解就业和劳动力市场的情况?
Deep Dive
Joseph Wang, a former senior trader at the Federal Reserve, discusses the current state of the Fed's monetary policy. He notes disagreements within the FOMC, with some members leaning dovish while others are more cautious. He anticipates more rate cuts than the market currently predicts, citing recent signals from key Fed officials and expectations of lower inflation.
- Disagreement within FOMC on rate cuts
- More dovish members at the Fed
- Market underpricing potential rate cuts
- Inflation expected to come in lower
Shownotes Transcript