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cover of episode Global Macro: The Hidden Force Behind Market Movements ft. Cem Karsan

Global Macro: The Hidden Force Behind Market Movements ft. Cem Karsan

2025/1/16
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Cem Karsan: 我在十一月份预测到一月份的市场回调,因为市场存在过度配置,并且多种指标显示即将出现回调。我的预测基于对市场流动性的深入分析,特别是VANA和CHARM指标,这些指标反映了期权市场中看跌期权和看涨期权的相对配置,这些配置会影响市场流动性,并对市场走势产生重大影响。此外,我还考虑到了年末资金再平衡和再杠杆化等因素,以及即将到来的非农就业报告和CPI数据等重要事件。这些因素共同作用,导致市场在1月份出现回调。 Ash Bennington: Cem Karsan 的观点为我们理解市场波动提供了新的视角,特别是关于VANA和CHARM指标的解释,以及这些指标如何影响市场流动性和价格走势。他的分析方法强调了对市场流动性、期权配置以及重要经济数据的综合考量,这对于投资者来说非常有价值。 Raoul Pal: Cem Karsan 的分析突出了被动投资策略的局限性,以及长期利率变化对股市的影响。他认为,长期利率下降推动了股市上涨,而利率上升则会降低利润率并导致股市下跌。此外,他还指出了美国财政和货币政策对股市的影响,以及由此导致的财富分配不均问题。这些观点为我们理解市场长期走势提供了重要的参考。

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Ash Bennington sits down with fan favorite Cem Karsan, founder of Kai Volatility, to explore how options trading dynamics and policy actions are driving the stock market’s direction.

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