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Macro Mondays: The Trump Inauguration Trades 🇺🇸
2025/1/20
Real Vision: Finance & Investing
A
Andreas Steno Larsen
M
Mikkel Rosenvold
Andreas Steno Larsen: 我对特朗普家族的加密货币策略感到困惑和担忧。他们发行各种代币(如特朗普币、梅拉尼娅币)而非专注于实用型项目,这让我感到困惑和担忧。特朗普家族在加密货币项目启动后发行代币,其成功与否以及未来走向难以预测,我对此保持观望态度。特朗普家族在加密货币领域巨额投资使其更倾向于解决该领域可能出现的问题,这是一种复杂的局面。我认为特朗普家族对加密货币项目的成功程度感到意外,这并非其最初计划。特朗普的财富构成已发生转变,其加密货币资产成为主要部分,这改变了人们对其财富的认知。特朗普的加密货币策略将Solana与特朗普及其政治生涯紧密联系在一起,而以太坊则相对被边缘化。就职典礼后,比特币价格走势取决于其技术指标和基本面因素,例如潜在的比特币储备的建立。中国股市(恒生指数)的技术面和基本面都显示出潜在的上涨趋势。欧洲股市(德国DAX指数)的短期前景并不乐观,我们可能需要减少在欧洲市场的风险敞口。一家澳大利亚上市公司(ETM)的股票价格受特朗普对格陵兰岛政策的影响,其未来走势取决于格陵兰岛的领导层或所有权的变化以及铀矿开采的许可情况。
Mikkel Rosenvold: 特朗普政府对TikTok的处理方式可能预示着其对华政策将采取更为温和的策略,这可能开启科技领域的新型外交。我认为特朗普的首要目标是自身利益最大化,这将影响其对华政策,使其采取相对温和的立场。中美两国在乌克兰问题上立场趋于一致,都希望找到中间地带,特朗普的和平提案与中国之前的提议相似。加沙地区的停火协议可能与特朗普的就职典礼有关,也与以色列国内政治有关,这可能预示着中东地区更广泛的和平协议的可能性。美国经济目前处于“上涨-上涨-上涨”的宏观经济状态,流动性、增长和通货膨胀都在上升,这与2021年的情况类似。中国经济指标显示通货膨胀、增长和流动性都在上升,这预示着中国股市等资产的潜在上涨。即使撇开特朗普因素,全球经济仍在运行,我们需要关注其他重要的经济和地缘政治事件。中东局势动荡,但地缘政治风险溢价正在消退,这可能导致石油价格上涨,并促使欧佩克增产。我预测特朗普的就职演说将侧重于其所谓的“黄金时代”,这可能与“让美国再次伟大”的口号有关,并可能暗示其政策侧重于短期目标。
supporting_evidences
Andreas Steno Larsen: 'A couple of hours after Jerry Gensler left office... They launched this and, you know, it's been a great success so far, obviously.'
Andreas Steno Larsen: 'He's more incentivized than ever to throw money at the problems of this sector should they arise'
Andreas Steno Larsen: 'I don't think they planned on this being such a big success.'
Andreas Steno Larsen: 'But essentially, you've now got a crypto billionaire entering office instead of a real estate tycoon'
Andreas Steno Larsen: 'Two takeaways from this. Solana is now linked to Trump for good and for bad.'
Mikkel Rosenvold: 'This is very, very interesting and potentially also very telling about the Trump administration coming in'
Mikkel Rosenvold: 'By the looks of it, seems like Donald Trump intends on feathering his own nest'
Mikkel Rosenvold: 'So they are more or less on the same page that a middle ground needs to be found in Ukraine.'
Mikkel Rosenvold: 'Maybe judging that this might be as good a time as any to strike this deal'
Andreas Steno Larsen: 'So the US macro regime model on the screen right now'
Andreas Steno Larsen: 'Inflation is starting to reaccelerate in China'
Mikkel Rosenvold: 'Okay, Andres, what's happening beneath the hood of this economy if we set Trump aside?'
Andreas Steno Larsen: 'Things are boiling in the Middle East.'
Mikkel Rosenvold: 'I think he's going to be talking about this golden age that he's been talking about'
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