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cover of episode Macro Mondays: What Happens If Trump's Dollar Playbook FAILS? ft. Raoul Pal & Andreas Steno Larsen

Macro Mondays: What Happens If Trump's Dollar Playbook FAILS? ft. Raoul Pal & Andreas Steno Larsen

2025/1/13
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Andreas Steno Larsen
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Raoul Pal
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Raoul Pal: 我认为美元走强是由于对特朗普新政府及其关税政策的担忧,这与2016-17年美元和利率走势类似。特朗普政府可能会利用美元走强作为谈判筹码,与其他国家进行贸易谈判。美元的结构性强势是因为全球有50%的债务以美元计价,并且美元短缺。美联储的紧缩货币政策导致全球美元流动性减少,这加剧了美元的强势。然而,美国需要增加流动性以应对债务上限问题,并提振市场。我认为,最终美国将不得不采取某种形式的量化宽松政策来增加流动性,尽管他们可能会试图避免使用这个说法。流动性和通货膨胀是由不同因素驱动的,两者之间没有必然联系。基于与2017年的对比,我认为比特币的底部可能已经形成。针对市场对第一季度经济衰退的预期,可以考虑做多短期利率债券或加密货币。 Andreas Steno Larsen: 我认为特朗普可能会利用指责拜登来推迟美元贬值的时间。全球M2货币供应量与纳斯达克指数的走势与2016-17年非常相似。比特币的价格走势与2017年相似,底部可能已经形成。M2的下降主要受美元驱动,而非实际的M2发展。英镑走弱是因为市场对英国政府的财政能力表示怀疑。英国国债市场的流动性问题是全球债券市场流动性问题的预兆。ISM指数长期低迷可能是由于美联储的利率政策导致经济出现分化,也可能是因为美国企业在利率曲线平坦时期增加了债务期限。美国零售额的增长表明经济正在复苏。美联储正在失去维持流动性状况稳定的选择,可能需要重启某种形式的量化宽松政策。美联储可能通过调整贴现窗口来间接增加流动性,避免使用“量化宽松”这一说法。可以做多欧元区利率期货,做空美元利率期货,因为欧元区通胀受能源和食品价格影响更大。做多欧元区利率期货,做空美元利率期货是一个不错的交易策略。

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Andreas is back with Raoul Pal  @RaoulPalTJM ) our special guest to break it all down live…

Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, welcomes Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal to break down the strength of the US dollar, inflation expectations, and the role of liquidity in driving growth.

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction:

01:32 - The Dollar Surge: What's Driving Currency Markets?

03:07 - Trump's Economic Strategy: Tariffs, Dollar Strength, and Negotiations"

05:20 - Monetary Policies in 2025: Echoes of 2016 and QE Predictions"

07:17 - Bitcoin and Markets: Parallels to 2017 and the Next Move

12:30 - UK Bond Market Troubles: A Canary in the Coal Mine?

15:43 - Inflation and Liquidity: Navigating the Economic Crossroads

20:40 - Retail Sales Boom: The Early Signs of Economic Revival

27:53 - Crypto’s Liquidity Role: How to Prepare for the Next Rally

33:07 - Closing Thoughts: Upcoming Events and Macro Strategies

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