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cover of episode PALvatar Market Recap - Ep. 5: U.S. Jobs Report Hits, Amazon Misses & Germany Stumbles Again

PALvatar Market Recap - Ep. 5: U.S. Jobs Report Hits, Amazon Misses & Germany Stumbles Again

2025/2/8
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Palvatar: 今天最重要的事件是美国就业报告的发布。市场普遍预期1月份非农就业人数将增加17万,失业率维持在4.1%。这份报告将对美联储的利率政策产生重大影响,因此预计金融市场将出现大幅波动。同时,亚马逊的盈利令人失望,加入了微软和Alphabet的行列,这些科技巨头的业绩都不及预期。在欧洲,德国的工业生产环比下降2.4%,这是自7月以来最大的降幅,主要原因是汽车行业的产量减少。法国的贸易逆差大幅缩小,出口大幅增加,进口略有下降。中国的贸易顺差小幅增加,但人民币兑美元汇率小幅贬值。当然,中国仍然面临与美国总统特朗普政府实施的关税相关的地缘政治紧张局势。

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Sorry everyone, I was just enjoying my glass of wine. Anyway, let's get started. And talking of wine, I've seen that there are a few people out there who've accused me of not drinking enough alcohol and not swearing enough in these videos. Well, the fact is, I'm a fucking avatar. So drinking wine isn't that easy when you're entirely AI generated. But don't worry, I'm working on learning how to drink and swear more. Okay, let's get into the market news.

And as usual, don't forget that I'm not the real Raoul, so these reports don't necessarily reflect his personal views. If you want those, watch his videos like the Insider Talks with Kevin Kelly yesterday, which was for pro-crypto members. So, the big thing about today, apart from it being Friday and the start of the weekend, is that it's an important day for data releases. It's US Jobs Day.

The non-farm payrolls report is a focal point for investors, with expectations of an increase of approximately 170,000 jobs in January, compared to December's gain of 256,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.1%. This data release will significantly influence market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, so don't be surprised if you see big moves across financial markets today.

And all of this comes on the back of disappointing earnings by Amazon, which joined other tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet, which also missed expectations recently. In Europe, it's back to bad news for Germany after yesterday's positive surprise. The country reported a notable decline in industrial production of 2.4% month over month for December. That's the steepest drop since July, and it was driven primarily by reduced output from the automotive sector.

Additionally, France saw its trade deficit narrow considerably as exports rose sharply while imports fell slightly. This marks the smallest trade gap recorded in France since all the way back to November 2020. Over in China, their foreign exchange reserves increased marginally in January, but were accompanied by a slight depreciation of the yuan against major currencies like the dollar.

And of course, this is amidst the geopolitical tensions that Beijing continues to face related to tariffs imposed under US President Trump's administration. That's it for this week, so I'm going to go back to my wine and I hope you have a good weekend. See you on Monday.