REKT Vision: Alt Season Canceled? BTC Dominance Hits 4-Year High
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We are back again, another episode of Rekt Vision. We did the question time with OSF Amanda last week. We're back on the public show this week. OSF, you were in Miami last week. Maybe we'll start there. How was that? Yeah, it was good. I mean, we spoke about it briefly on the last show, I believe, but I had a really good time.

I think I would like to host more events next time. I was just telling the guys before the show, I think the way that it works is like different people hosted their own things. Obviously I hosted the golf. Serge did a run. I think Julian did like a catamaran thing. Raul had a couple of dinners. That for me worked really well. Just having like smaller kind of like breakout groups during the time. So yeah, I would like to, we only had three lucky members for the golf event.

this time around but next year I'd love to open it up to more people and maybe we should do a five-a-side game actually I'll do that that's what I was just thinking I was like what would I have done if I'd come and I was like oh maybe we were doing a five-a-side tournament but you play golf I'm basically just going to do things do activities that I don't get to do anymore since

being married and have a child and just do this real vision thing so it's like five a side match with a bit of golf you're unable to play golf anymore uh why i am but like i had to i had to retire from football um what else could we do about table tennis

watching football like if there's some football on the weekend we'll just you know play some drinking games just guys we're just going to put on Gillette soccer Saturday for exactly that's going to be real vision all sorts of plans the next one and what was the sentiment like maybe we'll go into that because I know more left curve than most but like what was the general sense it's very bullish the sentiment was very bullish like

When we went for dinner, I sat at a table and I asked everyone what they thought the highs for Bitcoin would be and where it would end this year. Pretty much everyone was within the 200 to 250k range for Bitcoin. Everyone was like, risk on, what alts do I buy, etc. So it was very bullish. I felt like I was the least bullish person there to the point where

I almost felt like I was bearish and did a panel with Sergio and Keith and same thing then, like everyone was bullish. They were both bullish. And I was like, yeah, I'm bullish, but like I'm a bit more measured and certain things need to happen for us to unlock high levels. And I kind of talked about how I thought we were in for a chop, which I felt like disappointed people. But yeah, it just seems like the sentiment there, I think was a microcosm of the sentiment in the market where I think people seem to have this expectation where,

thing, Bitcoin Reserve and buying of Bitcoin and all this stuff should have happened yesterday and we should now already be at 200. And I think that's kind of an explanation of why we're seeing the way things are right now. I think it's good. Sorry, go ahead. As I said, I think it probably relates to how much Bitcoin you own at any one time. If you still own Bitcoin, you probably got so much more to go. We're going up to 200k. If you're an ETH, obviously it's felt like a tougher cycle. Solana's

kind of more ties a lot more the dgen stuff which has had a very very tough um few weeks since trump trump released his coin so i think just depends what you're paying attention to but i do i do feel as though bitcoin is think we're up only you know this is going to be a bit of a range like we've seen three or four times over the last two or three years and then um and then we're going to break out again yeah i think um i agree with that um

And yeah, I just think Bitcoin is possibly in its own league now. I mean, it is in its own league. Hi, Raoul here.

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The positive catalyst we have this year for crypto still feel very Bitcoin specific. I know there are some other things like Solana ETF or if the digital asset stockpile, if the digital asset stockpile includes other things other than Bitcoin. But for me personally, there's nothing that really matches the idea of countries fighting over themselves to buy Bitcoin. That's just...

net another level to me so for something that has a fixed supply so maybe that's where we'll start and that's kind of what the title was today bitcoin dominance has has just kept on going higher um if you bring up that chart we had a brief dip below um down to kind of the mid 50s in november december time um we had big moves in in some of the some of the more dino style coins like xrp

slalom had a decent move um and then over the last month particularly since trump um bitcoin dominance has just been surging and uh which kind of culminated on sunday night last week um where we had a very very bearish reaction to potential tariffs coming in um

Again, looking back on it now, it just seems so ridiculous at all. But there was a brief moment where ETH dipped to 2,000, Solana dipped to 175, I think, and Bitcoin dipped to 90K. And in that move, Bitcoin dominance actually went up in a wick to like 65, 66. It dipped back down, and then it's been slowly moving back higher again. So we're back up to like the 62% range.

For Bitcoin dominance. And in that world, we've seen all the previous left curve trade sectors get decimated. So meme coin market cap has lost $45 billion in three weeks. It peaked over $100 billion, kind of $130, I think it's $120. It's now into the 70s.

You had the AI agent sector, which was peaked at around 18, is now down to just over 7. And that was kind of holding zone around 12 or 13 until this move. And then you've seen kind of various other coins, even the L1s, like ETH has

ETH BTC is at multi-year lows now. It's only rebounded to kind of 2,750 area, even with Bitcoin at 100K. Solana is still kind of hanging out around 200. And then you have a bunch of other more like Dino L1s, which have performed fairly poorly as well. Very, very weak reaction to all of that sort of stuff.

What's your take, firstly, to that one-day move? And then where do you see the market kind of going now? Yeah, I think we're probably going to see more of the same for a while. I don't think... I can't see what catalyst there is to reverse this train, to reverse this move, you know what I mean? Like...

As we said at the beginning, it's just going to be more Bitcoin stuff. Maybe if Solana ETF is successful and it opens the door for other ETFs, but I just think there's diminishing returns there. I think people have just been beaten up so badly in alts. What's the argument now to buy it? I guess there's an argument to say, oh, this stuff is down so much you can take a punt at it, but

It just seems like all new capital seems to be flowing to Bitcoin and nothing else. Bitcoin and possibly Sol, but Sol alone isn't enough to change Bitcoin dominance. I don't know, if you're a new person to crypto, what makes you buy an alt here? I just love how we've just gone from this show being very left curves and now just like full on Bitcoin maxi because you now own Bitcoin. It's really been a full evolution since the very first episode.

show of me just meme coins to now just only Bitcoin. But I mean, I'm just going with what the market is telling me and

Maybe there's a time to take the other side of the market. But my problem is at some point, I do think Bitcoin dominance falls and alts rally, but I just don't know what. I don't know what's going to rally. My bet, as we've spoken about in the last couple of weeks, my bet is on AI coins and I own some AI coins. But again, even there, it's like, which coins do you own? And how do you know what you buy isn't repaid for something else in a few months? Because if you're betting on alt season or alts season,

Bitcoin, Bitcoin dominance dropping, et cetera. That's not like an overnight trade or a two-week trade. That's a multi-month trade. So you need to, whatever you hold, you need to feel comfortable. It's something that will

hold and maintain its value and maintain its mindshare and narrative over a longer period of time and that's been the hardest thing in this market it's just that's been consistent for a while i think i think it's important to talk about where we were like a month ago because obviously we're like we're super bullish on a bunch of these sort of stuff a month ago can't just now suddenly be like oh i'm bitcoin maxi i don't want to touch anything what has changed what has changed from now until then um there has to be some level of consistency here i think the main thing

has got to be the Trump coin, like you said, that has meant that it really did change, which we kind of mentioned two weeks ago, that really changed the market dynamic in that people were very, very scared about new coins coming. Even today, there's talk about like a Kanye West coin dropping and you've got to wonder like what that would do to existing Solana coins. So I think that it was kind of a perfect storm there of people suddenly scared about new issuance. Yeah.

And then the second thing I would say here is that Pump Fund has created coins, at least on Solana, with only like one or two, well, sometimes even less, but 1% liquidity pools, right? And the third thing is none of the major exchanges have listed them for spot. So when people rush to the exit in these coins, I have not seen a sell-off like this

since I've been in crypto. This is like, what this did to alts was similar to like an FTX style move. You know, stuff is down 90% in three or four weeks. That is an absolutely insane move. So I think it's kind of more of an appreciation of...

of the lack of liquidity in these coins when things go wrong. And probably that's also why they go up so high so quickly. But I think those are the two main things that's changed. I do still like AI as like the strongest narrative or one of the strongest altcoin narratives here. There is that nagging feeling in the back of my head that, yeah, we could get wrecked. We could get wrecked if another coin comes out.

but they're down a lot and I kind of just feel like they're kind of down to where they were

in let's say november or december early december and i was like looking at them there so like and i still really like this narrative but you just have to and then this becomes a case of yes you have to play all ones you think of the best long-term traction that's a much more difficult one even far coin which was kind of the strongest mean mean one got slightly decimated in this market but i do think those are the ones that will probably bounce the strongest um

What I did move to two or three weeks ago was after the Melania coin, which kind of when I told you I had a big bag of like ARK, for example, and then when that dropped 40% after Melania dropped, I was like, you can't hold these coins through that. Now they are all down 80%. I moved to revenue producing kind of coins largely. So I moved to things like Radium, to Hype, to Jupiter, to,

um or kind of the big three those have performed slightly better um so i and i still like that bit of the market so ones where you're you're kind of selling and jlp obviously which has been the vast majority of my portfolio for a long time but those are those are coins which you um you earn just from trading taking place i i am tempted to kind of move some back into some of these coins now like it the

The setup here is that stablecoins just continue to go higher. We're about to reach $220 billion of stablecoins right now. That is just up only. Number of addresses and amount traded keeps on breaking out to new highs, so like volume. And yet the altcoin sector is absolutely decimated. So there seems to be this big disconnect between what I would call like underlying fundamentals of crypto adoption...

and altcoins. And maybe that was slightly the other way or too far the other way with like how fast some of these altcoins got value. But I do look at some of them this week, even today, and I was like, they are down a lot. And I do think they're going to be the strongest altcoin sectors. I agree. I definitely agree. And I

Still agree with you on AI. And I think because perhaps it was a bit of a consensus trade within the casino crowd, that's why it's gotten hit so badly. And because all the casino money is there every time there's something else that's a liquidity suck, that also gets affected as well. But I've been, you know, I bought some ARK and AI16Z last week in that big sell-off we had over the weekend, I think it was.

And my plan is to keep averaging down on that stuff because I do think... I mean, actually, one of the things from the Real Vision Crypto Gathering, one of my takeaways from that was some of the larger wallets I spoke to, whether they were...

funds managing money or just like high net worth people, people were very, very focused on AI. And actually it felt like it was people who'd missed that first move in December or the first move in November, December, and then sort of just started doing the work in January, seem bullish, but haven't really yet deployed while the price has been going down. And I think there's capital to come into it that views it as an entry point.

rather than capital where it's like, oh, I'm down really bad on this. We're going to sell and move on. I think my view on the AI stuff is it's going to be a transfer of coins and potentially wealth from the casino crowd to a more sophisticated institutional crowd. I think that's kind of what's happening right now. But I know of at least three, possibly even four funds that we've spoken about who

are deploying in that sector right now, I think. And being very patient in terms of averaging down and not just like aping all in. So I think that stuff is going to be a good space to buy. I think you just have to be patient and try and lower your average cost as much as possible, given the price section. But at some point this year, I think we're going to have a big resurgence of that too and through all-time highs, I think. And all-time highs in a lot of those coins, by the way, is like a 10X on some coins, I think now. Yeah.

Right. Well, but I guess my, the technical setup is what I'm basically trying to say is that everything else kind of points to more of an altcoin market here, right? Everything else points to when you have stable coins going this high, when you've had Bitcoin just breaking through an all-time high, right? And then you have, you have the amount of DEX volume going, going up only, the amount of active addresses going up only. You would assume that that's,

That's a market where lots of people are coming in and want to trade altcoins. And if we haven't topped, like if you don't think this is a cycle top, I'm not a big believer in like the just Bitcoin dominance, right? Like in the metric of an altcoin cycle, because I agree there's thousands of coins that get issued each day, but it would really, really surprise me

if Bitcoin at this stage is going to be the best performing asset. Like, if it's going to do a 2x, like, and nothing else moves. Because that would be really wild to have, what, you just have Bitcoin and a bunch of people in stables doing nothing? Kind of feels like people are going to probably punt around with some stuff, right? I think so. I don't disagree with that. I think my only point is I think it will take time. I don't think we're going to see it for a while. And...

And because we don't see it for a while, we just don't know which alts are the ones to play, which is why I think Bitcoin dominance will remain elevated for a while. Like, it's not this... What you're saying is not going to happen tomorrow or next week, probably not even next month. Could it happen in six months? Yeah. But like in six months, we don't know what the... The landscape in crypto is changing so quickly and there are so many things to happen this year. We just don't know which sector within altcoins will do really well. So it's hard to...

What I'm saying is it's hard to put that trade on now because I do think there'll be a lot of alpha within, sexual alpha within the altcoin space. It's not just going to be all alts higher, I don't think. Yeah.

Yeah, I think that's a good point. Like, yes, this is like, it could potentially be like owning Pepe six months before it breaks out. Do you know what I mean? And in that time, Bitcoin can go a lot higher. I guess what you could say is maybe like the alt L1 trade could be the direct trade, like own some of the L1s.

And maybe they outperform against Bitcoin. Maybe that's the safest way to play it over six months because people will still buy Solana, Sui, AVAX, Cardano, all that stuff, XRP. All that stuff still does trade with the market. So maybe that's the best way to play it rather than getting deeper into alt sectors, if that makes sense. Just like sit to L1s.

You can stick to L1s, although maybe we should go through that, which is kind of what happens to ETH this week. If it felt bad to own ETH before this week, it definitely felt bad during this week. ETH is at $2,750, so it's kind of unchanged over the last few years, right? Like you could have owned ETH for many years now and kind of be flat on your money, but

which is kind of wild. I think it's like five years is flat to where it was, so like 2020 time. What do you think about ETH here? Is the market just telling you that you don't trust it? Do you look at it now? There's been some talk this week that because a lot of the more left curve stuff that was happening on Solana is so down that maybe people will return to safety or return to...

or the relative safety of TVL, which ETH has. What's your take? Do you think now it's time to buy ETH? I think we could see a near-term outperformance of ETH just given how much it's underperformed. I could see ETH BTC, where is it now? 0.027 or 0.028 or something like that. I could see that going back towards 0.03 or above. But it's still hard for me to see...

a material outperformance. It's hard for me to see that ratio go back towards 0.06 without... That'd be wild. Yeah, you would need like a really big catalyst. And if I think of like what big catalysts there are to get alts to perform, maybe it's an ETF. But guess what? ETH already has an ETF and it's not really seeing that much inflow. So unless that changes, unless people start thinking, oh, now it's time to start buying ETH and they can build a story, then that could happen. But what I think ETH really needs...

is not something different in the tech. I think it just needs marketing. I think it needs a

The ETH Foundation needs like a revamp. And I know it's maybe going through that or something like that, but it just needs better marketing. It needs, you know, Solana's done a really good job of onboarding normies and building this culture and making it seem like a fun place to be. And ETH doesn't have any of that. It just seems like this sort of like academic thing, which is not attracting retail investors, despite it having an ETF. So I think like they need like a whole new like marketing plan and they need to use the

that they have over other alts and having an ETF and figuring out ways to educate and reach out to people who perhaps are in Bitcoin ETF so they can understand ETH better. Like it just needs, it needs better branding. I can't believe I'm saying this because I know this is probably against everything that like... They're trying to do it. ...stands for. Yeah. But that's what it needs. Yeah. So maybe to kind of bring all this together, I think a lot of people would have had part of their portfolio in...

high risk stuff just like me and you did um but down down quite a lot uh over the last few weeks how would you rebuild the portfolio let's start objectively like you've got 100% meme coins and they're down um what what what do you think you should be earning for the next few months

So this is, let's say, a six-month time horizon? Yeah. Let's be like, look, I'm down. I'm not dead. I need to work out if I should be holding on to this stuff. What amount should I keep in? Keep in my memes or AI? How would you rebuild a portfolio? I would say, let's say like 50% Bitcoin. I would say...

20, I'd say maybe like, okay, this is like a slightly more defensive portfolio, but let's say like 60% Bitcoin, 30% other L1s and 10% AI. That's how I would structure it. And I wouldn't, I honestly wouldn't buy just normal meme coins here. Like I really wouldn't. For a six month hold, I wouldn't. Like if you're in the trenches and you're gambling meme coins and you're trading them in and out, fine. But I wouldn't buy meme coins here and I'm not,

Just saying that as like a mid-curver, like obviously if you listen to the show, the entire of last year, my entire portfolio was meme coins. And that's when I was pretty bullish on that space, but I'm not that bullish at all on being able to buy and hold a standard meme coin for the next six months. So I wouldn't, I don't have any meme coins. Like if I own anything that's meme related, it's within AI. It has some AI connectivity to it. That's stuff like Rekt. But other than that, I don't have any meme coins.

So stick to AI, basically. Because you think that's going to be the strongest bounce. So I think I would, I still think there's some good altcoin stories there. But I think knowing this from previous kind of, let's say, chop periods, the ones that outperform are generally the revenue producing ones. Like I remember like,

I'll be through that period. So I would own, I would definitely get into something like Bitcoin or JLP. Like JLP is probably my favorite asset right now, which is the, which is the basket of majors plus which earns you yield on Jupiter perps. Then I probably have about, like you said, 40 or 50% in that. Then I'd look at stuff like on the L1 side, like you said, something like hype,

um might be interesting here because of the amount of revenue it's generating i'd look at radium i'd look at jupiter um so i probably have 20 30 percent of my bag in that um and then with the final 20 i kind of agree with you i think the the i'd pick ai memes so i'd pick something like far coin or go but um because i think i'd that's the only thing i can really feels like it is that it's the surest bet over a six month period but

It's tough. If I was owning it for like the next month, stuff like AI16Z or ARK, like AI16Z is now beat Solana as the most popular open source protocol ever created by a crypto team. It does feel as though that the optionality of something like that, 350 million seems crazy to me. So if I was owning it for the next month,

I do think I'd look at a lot more of these AI utility coins and be like, yeah, maybe I'll play them. But the outside risk is, yeah, it sounds as though we're going to get a coin from tons of different people still. And there are stables now kind of waiting in the wings to buy that a bit more than there were last time. Like Solana stables have broken out to 12 or 13 billion, I think now. So that's kind of been up only. But I do think we'll get a coin from Kik. We'll get a coin from...

Maybe Twitch will get a coin from GameStop or get a coin maybe from Kanye West. It's very, very clear we're going to get a lot of new coins in this world. And you have to be wary of that even for short-term holds in those. It feels like, you know, we've seen some, obviously we've seen some of those coins come and so far they've all come on Solana. Like I find it very hard to think any of these coins won't come on Sol. So, yeah.

That kind of makes me pretty bullish in Sol as well. It just feels like if you're gambling the stuff, you need to have liquid Sol. And I think more and more people will realize they need to have liquid Sol. That's the other trade that I think is still really interesting here. The idea of maybe Sol, FDV, flipping, ETH. That's something I think is worth, especially with Sol back down now towards 200. I think that's another thing worth thinking about because we're almost 50% off ETH.

30, 40% off the highs that we saw earlier this year when Trump came. Imagine if you have... I agree with you. I think we're going to see all this big stuff, release coins by the end of the year. And I think it's all going to be on Sol. Yeah. I really like Sol. I continue to think that is one of my favorite of the majors. JLP as an asset is generally geared towards Sol as well. So if you want to own kind of Sol assets,

exposure in a basket which is geared mainly towards Sol that's not a bad one but I think you know obviously the unlocks this month next month um

then I think it's in a good spot. I still think it's a really good spot. It got caught in, let's say, the crosswinds of this move in Bitcoin dominance. But I do think that's relatively strong. The only other one that's come up on this whole revenue generating L1s is Tron, if you've ever looked at that, which has been a coin associated with Justin Sun, HTX. But just because they are now seemingly tied to World Liberty Financial,

and it feels unlikely that we're going to get a situation where u.s regulation is that's that tough um i think the sec looks like it's dropping a lot of cases at the moment it's now looking like it's going to accept a bunch of etfs uh it suddenly feels as though that one which has easily been the the biggest revenue generator of the l1s that one's held up okay and i've looked a bit more at it i don't know if you can buy it on u.s exchanges but you can buy it on um

Yeah, you can buy it on a bunch of other different more international exchanges. So that's the only other one I'm looking at. It does feel as though we are going to get a, like you said, if you are just focused on Bitcoin though, it does feel as though we are going to get a bunch of states now FOMOing in. I think there's nearly 15 states which have active Bitcoin reserve bills at the moment. And they are seemingly like fighting it out for a,

for some uh who's going to be the first to implement some sort of bitcoin reserve you have the czech national bank sorry that the actual central bank came out and said they're going to allocate part of their reserves to bitcoin that's the first major central bank i've seen um and you have various like companies around the world uh coming in and saying yeah we're going to allocate part of our treasury to bitcoin it does there is something to be said that like

stop trying to degen so hard when you have such an obvious trades sitting there um in that you have this global game theory of everyone trying to buy bitcoin you know one of the best or easiest trades last year was the bitcoin solana barbell and i'm starting to think we're not starting to think i do think as we're going to see that continue to be a strong trade this year like

I don't see how you go wrong. If you're bullish on the market, I don't see how you can go wrong with a trade like that. Just a Bitcoin still on a barbell. And maybe you spend some of that Sol on doing sort of like the D-gen trading on the side because it will... I think you're right. I think we're going to see so many coins in Sol. So you want to have liquid Sol to try and catch some of those and then

It's like in 2021, you trade NFTs to try and multiply your ETH because that was the thing that kept getting higher. And last year, I don't really think most people traded meme coins to multiply their SOL. I felt like most people found meme coins to hold and try and just make money. But maybe this year the game is to trade the meme coins to try and multiply your SOL and just build a big stack of SOL while you hold Bitcoin against it. I think that's probably... That feels like a good sweet spot to me.

If you're not trenching 24-7. In a sideways market, Bitcoin and Sol barbell does seem like one of the strongest. I think the second bit of this question really does become, is this a six-month thing or is it a three-month thing or is it a two-month thing from here? Or are we going to break out next month or this month? Because I do think that once Bitcoin hits a new all-time high and breaks out like 110, then suddenly, just like when it was ranging for a while in...

Last year, you saw all the degen activity really started to happen, like breaking out new hires when we hit a new high in Bitcoin. I do think that's when you want to start having a more risky portfolio. How long do you think this chop could be here? Do you think it's going to be one of the shorter chops? Like normally after like a really long...

We had nine months last year. If this is a bull market, you would assume that this one would be slightly shorter than that and then maybe shorter after that. And that would be the continuation of a bull market. Are you, what's your sense? Are we locking, are you locking down for six months? I think part of this is like a macro question. So maybe you need to see a slight, slight resolution or what were you looking for there? Like the big things that will take us maybe out of the range.

I think a six-month chop could be on the cards because, yes, part of it is macro and we'll see how that progresses over that time. We had the Michigan survey for inflation just now, which sent the markets back lower again after the payrolls number came in below expectations. So there are some macro questions that I think not necessarily need to be answered, but perhaps we get better clarity over in that time.

which will affect crypto. But I think for crypto itself to break out of this choppy sell strength style price action, we need to get more headlines and clarity on Bitcoin Reserve and all that stuff, which I think is going to take at least six months, if not longer. And I think we're going to see some headline volatility within that time period. Just

like quote me on this. And remember I said this at some point between now and the next six months, we are going to get some headlines, which will say Bitcoin reserve looks unlikely, or they can't do this, or they're facing some hurdles. There's going to be some sorts of like negative headline, which will make people start to question it. Like right now, everyone thinks it's going to happen. And I do think it probably will happen, but

there's going to be something that will cast a greater amount of doubt in people's minds and that's when i think we're going to get like a real shake or a real wobble and that i think is going to be the best buying opportunity because i do think they'll get it over the line but you know we had that with the whole etf saga right the etfs were going on for ages and then you had moments where it was like oh no they're not going to do it anymore or it's not going to get approved and people were really questioning it so um

And that also goes to show like, you know, right now, maybe that doubt is a small part of people's minds. People just think it's going to take time. But if you have that wobble, it becomes a greater, that probability, that weighting of doubt becomes greater. And it means when it does happen, you're going to see like a monster rally, like a much bigger rally than we anticipated. And that's kind of,

what I think is going to happen. I think that's always what needs to happen for us to get to these 200, 250 levels because I think people need to lose that hope a little bit to get there. Right now, I think everyone just expects it still. Yeah. Yeah, I think the main things I'd be looking for here are the headlines really coming from David Sachs or rumors of headlines that we're going to come to some sort of resolution of what's going to be included

in the Bitcoin Reserve. I think they're probably the main ones. And then maybe some of the macro stuff, though it does feel like that's like drifting slightly away from us. I don't know if you've seen, it's just like inflation could be drifting slightly higher. It feels like the Fed's not going to be like that supportive. I don't think, maybe something breaks in the EM country, which causes massive stimulus. Maybe we get the swap lines, which Raoul was talking about, you know, like,

Maybe we get some sort of stop line between the US and Japan. There's something that's probably going to break a little bit there for that to happen, right? So maybe we get something around there on a currency level, which looks like it could break out. Maybe the UK, similarly, the UK or Japan, kind of like the obvious ones that people are looking at at the moment. But for me, it feels like it's probably going to be a policy thing. So we're probably going to have to get some sort of

or something around the Bitcoin strategic reserve that will be the main things I'm looking for. I'm bullish that it will be less than six months. If this started at the start of the year, or maybe, I don't know when this started, so maybe middle of December last year, this job, then I think we could, by the end of the spring, we could hopefully be out of this. I hope so. It would be nice, but I'm positioned for it to be

done sooner like i'm not max risk right now but i'm happy if things go higher but i'm mentally prepared for a six month chop and not getting myself excited it feels like you can probably make a good bit of money just trading the range here i think that's what i'm gonna do largely like everyone thinks it's all over at 90 and everyone will be super euphoric at 110 or 106

And I think you can trade a decent range here and kind of know you're not going to blow up. Yeah, I think that's right. But I think that range will like... You're going to see that range narrow over time. I guess people call it a wedge. And then it's just going to take off. Okay, so we kind of go to the questions in here? Yeah, let's do questions. Before we head to the questions, we...

As usual, just want to showcase some pro content on Real Vision Crypto. Earlier this week, we had Jamie Coutts speak with Tony Placencia, who's the co-founder of Griffane. So,

If you are into AI coins, that's obviously been a big one with a lot of mindshare. They spoke about the rise of AI agents and what else is coming in the space. Highly recommend you guys check out that video. It's available to pro crypto subscribers. You can sign up to watch it on realvision.com. All right, questions. If you were to invest in, this was from Jonathan D, if you were to invest in US-made crypto assets,

that narrative from Trump, which would be your favorite coins? You like Sol, Sui, and maybe some DJing and XRP. But is there anything else you're looking at in the idea of American-made coins? The ones that have kind of been touted are Sol, XRP, LINK, and Aave. I would say the ones that I hear about the most are...

The one I like the most is definitely Solana at the mall. So I would, if I'm just going to have a US centric approach, it would be, it'd be Solana. Or arguably you could have like, this is why I kind of like Tron because it's kind of like, so Justin Sun is the biggest investor in World Liberty Financial. And it's, it's clearly kind of making friends there. Yeah.

So maybe that's kind of the outside chance of like something that will benefit from a Trump first approach to crypto. I don't know. Yeah, I think I agree with that. I think I'm not really familiar with what other American coins are that there are. There's a really good graphic actually we showed. There's a ton. But in terms of the ones that would ever be gold. Yeah, it would just be the old ones. Yeah, the big old ones. Yeah, that's fair.

Okay, next question. It seems mainstream media is reporting on a sole ETF approval. It implies that the SEC would take up to its maximum of 240-day review period. Do you think the pro-crypto stance that the new admin has would fast-track this? Wouldn't an approval near the end of the year be too close to the end of the peak? So do you think we could see a fast-tracked approval of the Solana ETF

Are you worried if it happens towards the end of the year, it's sort of towards the top or after the best of the price action? Yeah, I wouldn't assume that the SEC timelines of previous ETFs has much bearing on this one. Given they've approved the Bitcoin ETF, I think the SEC is now, this week has acknowledged Grayscale's applications for Solana and Litecoin ETFs.

I think that process could be much quicker. Much, much quicker. It doesn't need to be drawn out and we could get approvals much sooner than in 70 days, in my opinion. I agree. I think these guys seem active in getting things done. Obviously, Hester Pearce at the SEC now has a bigger role in this stuff and she seems pretty switched on and on it. So,

I don't think, I mean, I know they're talking about classification of stuff. What's the security? What's not security, et cetera. I don't think we need to wait for that for them to launch a Solana ETF. Let me put it that way. I think they could just go ahead and do it if there's enough demand. What's your take on World Liberty Finance buying $200 million worth of ETH and Eric Trump's pro-ETH tweet, which said, thank me later, which was then soon edited to remove the thank me later part. Yeah.

I thought it was a very strange tweet, if I'm honest. Kind of felt like a KOL tweet after they've just bought some meme coin. I wouldn't read much into it. I think thinking that the Trumps will save ETH has been not a good trade. That's kind of what my view is. If you own ETH because you're bullish that Eric Trump is going to save it, I kind of think that's a...

Not a strong enough reason. So I think there's some possibility that that gets included in the strategic reserve in the US, but ETH isn't US-based. And apart from the DeFi stuff that World Liberty Financial is getting involved in, it may not pass the David Sachs kind of review process here of something that they would want to have a strategic reserve in. So I...

I think there are surer bets there, basically, if you're going to play it. Yeah. I think that's probably right. I think from what I've heard, they've obviously bought a lot of ETH and they've bought a lot of ETH ecosystem coins as well. And there were some rumors on Twitter saying if you had bought $10 million of WorldLibertyFi, they would return the favor and buy $10 million of your coin, which is why they bought some of this other random stuff. So I don't know. Like I think...

For me, there's not much more to read into that. I think it's nice to see that you have a large buying of Ethereum, but I don't really... I don't know, I guess that group could lobby for the government to include ETH in their plans and more stuff they're doing. You would think that kind of makes sense. Maybe it's that obvious and it's just staring at us blank in the face and no one wants to play in it. I'm not really sure, but...

I'm, for now, taking the stance there's not too much to read into it, I think. Speaking of, any thoughts on Ondo? That's definitely one that those guys have been buying. Ondo is an interesting one because it's now going down the L1 route as well. I like it more than I've liked it in the past. My general view is that a lot of the... They've been one of the people hand-holding some of the tokenization efforts, particularly for treasuries.

I've always thought that the TradFi firms would kind of just do this themselves. Like, I think JP Morgan would have its own RWA platform out of all the other banks because it's probably valuable proprietary tech to have. But now it's going down the L1 route. It doesn't necessarily have to be where the...

have to help these firms get on the blockchain it just really has to be where where they go um and i think that's maybe a slightly stronger argument so in this world of of maybe defy coming being a bit stronger if we chop i do think ondo could be could be an interesting one because it it will be tied to the rwa narrative yeah agreed i don't have any additional thoughts on that um

Next question. 3% of my portfolio is in memes, Mog, Giga, and Pepe. Is it a good idea to cut my losses and move it to Sui or Virtuals? I wouldn't buy Virtuals. That's one thing I wouldn't buy. I think Virtuals as a platform is really going through the ring at the moment. I think only seven agents were created yesterday, for example. Yeah.

I think there are stronger plays out there on the infra side, in my opinion, or marketplace side than virtuals. Pepe, Mog, and what was the third one? Giga. Yeah. I mean, they are in the stronger category of memes, but you might be there for a while. If you're just going to get frustrated that these maybe underperform memes,

Some of the L1s, maybe. It's tough to think that Pepe is not a multi-cycle meme, right? But Giga and Mog, I think, are about to be questioned here a little bit. So I'd maybe keep the Pepe and cut the other two. I think, yeah, I've said my view on memes. I think meme coins will just underperform AI, underperform Bitcoin, perhaps even other L1s for the rest of this year.

Does that mean now is the right time to sell? Maybe not because a lot of these meme coins are down, you know, 80, 90% in a short timeframe. And even though I think they'll underperform over a longer period of time, you may have random dead cat bounces and that kind of stuff. And, you know, for example, Popcat got listed by Coinbase and that was up. I mean, it's not even up that much. It's up 20% on that news, you know, before that would cause things to go up like two or three X. So, yeah.

I think, um, I think if it was me, if I had that position, I would look to scale out of it, but I've maybe try and find a day when meme coins are up versus everything else, because I do think you will probably find that day. And you know, 3% of your portfolio is not a large amount anyway. So it's not, um, well, I don't want to assume it's not a large amount. Um, uh, absolutely. But as a percentage, relative to your portfolio, it's small. So it's not, I think not the end of the world. Um, yeah.

What is your opinion of Monero? Have you looked at that at all? Monero? Yeah. These are the privacy chains. Yeah. I haven't looked that much into them other than it feels as though they maybe have a stronger tailwind here because of the throwing out of the tornado cash case. I think in one state, I think it was Texas. Yep.

It's difficult. There's a few different players in that privacy chain world. My honest view is that some of the L1s will focus on privacy a little bit more. I think it's been one of the explicit aims of Vitalik rather than buying a privacy chain. So one of the existing very popular L1s. Yeah, I agree. I think that stuff had a bounce after the Tornado case. Yeah.

And perhaps if we see more of that, you could see some capital go back into it. But other than that, no real strong view. Do you think if the US plans to build a Bitcoin reserve, they'll purposefully say they won't first to dump the market so that they can pack their bags? No, no, I don't. I think the Bitcoin reserve largely will probably just take over the confiscated Bitcoin to start. You...

You may hear about other ways that they're buying it, but I think it would more be stealth. I don't think they'll give you a red herring and say we're not going to approve it and then approve it. I think they're more likely to just buy it in secret and tell you they've already bought it. Yeah, I think that's right. I think you have to remember, I mean, their bags are already packed, right? The US owns whatever is like 18, $20 billion of Bitcoin. So there's nothing, you know, they don't need to even really front run it. I think it's already in...

in their favor. Also, I don't think like, I don't think the government is going to start buying Bitcoin and then say, oh, we've just announced it. And by the way, we've already, we've already bought it. I think there's probably going to be a bit more of a process to it as well. So I don't foresee, I don't foresee anything like that. Next question. I've lost my page. Any update on GLI and ISM? And if you looked at those numbers this week, yeah,

The ISM manufacturing PMI, I think, climbed to 51 or 50.9, was it, earlier in the week? Is that something that you've been monitoring or looking at? That we're having a slightly stronger ISM? Look, I think for me, that points to a slightly less...

benign financial conditions situation here. Like that unemployment, for example, again, the unemployment level came in lower again today. I think it's less likely that the Fed at least will be as accommodative as we want it to be. Yeah, it's a bit of a weird one because like today we had payrolls coming below expectations.

unemployment rate kind of below. They revised. They massively revised last year. Revised last month. Yeah. And then you had, but you had wage inflation higher than expected. So it was kind of like a bit of a mixed bag, really. Like it wasn't really, for me it ends up just, I guess, feeling neutral. I guess the market liked it because we started to rally a bit before the Michigan survey. But yeah, kind of like a mixed bag. I still don't really...

I still don't really know if good is bad and bad is good and all that. We just seem to be glazing past it a bit. It already depends on what Powell says at the FOMC. And I think the market hasn't necessarily done a good job of extrapolating these numbers to what Powell's going to say because the hawkish FOMC caught everyone off guard in November. And then the FOMC this month...

Or last month caught everyone off guard as well because it was like less hawkish or maybe slightly diverse than what people expected. So I guess I'm more focused on like FOMC for what government's market moved rather than these numbers because I think we're just not doing a good job of extrapolating these numbers unless we see a clearer trend in them. All right, we're over time, but we'll just do one last question because...

We started a little bit late. If you are to start investing in crypto this day and age, how would you allocate $500 every month for a long-term investment? I think you know what I'm going to say, but what would you say? Yeah, I mean, if you're really looking for a long-term investment, you've got to own Bitcoin. But the only other thing I would think of would be JLP. That's it. Yeah, I would say Bitcoin. I think it's hard for me to see long-term, which I'm assuming is in excess of one year,

It's hard for me to underwrite anything other than Bitcoin, I think. Cool. All right. I think that brings us to the end of the show. Thanks everyone for listening to Rekt Vision. Before we go, a question for you guys. Have we finally hit the peak of

Bitcoin dominance level, or is there more pain to come for alts? Please let us know what you think in the comments. Make sure you're following us on X, Rectmando, OSF underscore rect, and please sign up to Real Vision Crypto at realvision.com forward slash RVC to access our exclusive monthly AMAs. We will be back next week at the usual time.

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