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cover of episode REKT Vision: Is The Banana Zone Over? ft. Raoul Pal

REKT Vision: Is The Banana Zone Over? ft. Raoul Pal

2025/1/10
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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People
M
Mando
O
Ovie
R
Raoul Pal
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Raoul Pal:我认为当前的市场走势与2017年非常相似。当时,特朗普当选后,市场对关税和通胀的担忧导致美元走强,利率上升。然而,加密货币市场却逆势上涨。这主要是因为中国在2015年和2016年受到强势美元的冲击后,经济增长放缓,增加了货币供应量。欧洲和英国也采取了量化宽松政策。现在,我们面临着类似的情况:美元走强,市场对关税和利率的担忧被夸大。我认为,全球流动性才是关键因素,而不是美国利率。2017年,美联储持续加息,但加密货币市场仍然上涨,因为全球流动性增加了。当前的市场回调属于“香蕉区”的正常阶段,之后将迎来山寨币季节和主题集中期。短期回调后将快速反弹,随后山寨币将大幅上涨。加密货币市场已达到3万亿美元的规模,需要更多机构投资者才能推动价格上涨,AI并非当前的市场契合点。宏观经济和加密货币市场可能出现脱钩,但两者最终仍将受到全球经济周期的影响。中国经济面临困境,需要美元贬值才能刺激经济增长,这将成为中美之间的博弈焦点。预计2025年所有风险资产都将表现强劲,因为各国将出台刺激政策。ISM指数是判断市场顶部的重要指标,目前该指数仍低于50%,表明市场尚未达到顶部。 Ovie:我对AI领域的谨慎乐观,认为其价格上涨与实际应用无关,类似于2021年的元宇宙热潮。我认为AI领域的投资并非仅仅是“韭菜”行为,机构投资者也参与其中,其发展潜力巨大。Solana区块链价格被低估,其在AI叙事中的强势地位和即将到来的ETF都将推动其价格上涨。Solana区块链的低迷表现已持续过久,其在AI叙事中的地位、即将到来的ETF以及解锁代币的担忧消退后,价格将大幅上涨。 Mando:市场对利率的担忧被夸大了,人们忽略了过去两年其他因素(如AI热潮)对市场上涨的贡献。我认为AI领域的投资是一个“复仇交易”,那些在2024年被市场抛弃的投资者正在寻求反弹。Sui区块链表现强劲,持续超越其他L1区块链,其价格上涨先于叙事发展。Arthur Hayes对未来流动性的预测过于乐观,中国经济的困境和对流动性的需求不容忽视。比特币可能面临量子计算的威胁,但传统银行系统同样面临风险,这是一个需要长期关注的问题。美国银行关于不再降息的观点可能过于绝对,全球流动性才是关键因素。

Deep Dive

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The REKT boys are back with Raoul to assess some analysts' fears and the recent pullback that the crypto markets have experienced in the first days of 2025. Is the Banana Zone over? Raoul Pal, CEO & Co-Founder of Real Vision answers...

Canary Labs and rektguy co-founders Ovie "OSF" Faruq and Michael "Mando" Anderson, also the creator of the Mando Minutes newsletter, are back with Raoul Pal to discuss the narratives and themes driving the crypto market right now. On the latest REKT Vision, they discuss whether the narrative seen in some circles of this cycle already reaching its top is premature or warranted, how the AI agent theme will play out this year, which tokens are showing relative strength, and much more.

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