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The End of U.S. Dollar Empire? | Ash Bennington & Warren Pies
2025/4/23
Real Vision: Finance & Investing
W
Warren Pies
Warren Pies: 我认为我们正处于熊市，人们的担忧不仅限于周期性的经济衰退，更重要的是对全球金融体系结构以及美国在其中地位的根本性担忧。我们观察到一些异常的跨资产流动和行为，这表明存在许多潜在的结构性问题。
十年期国债收益率上升的同时美元指数下跌，这种情况历史上罕见，可能预示着去美元化趋势。历史上，十年期国债收益率和美元指数同时下跌，通常伴随着风险资产上涨，而这次风险资产也下跌，这非常罕见。
近期市场表现表明，资金正在逃离美国资产和美元资产，这是一种独特的现象。资金外流主要来自发达市场，这加剧了市场担忧。
尽管政府可能将目前的贸易政策解释为全球贸易的重置和谈判策略，但这并不能解释市场对美国资产的信心下降。美国政府需要明确其贸易政策目标，并采取更协调的方式来实现这些目标，避免同时与多个贸易伙伴发生冲突。
后疫情时代，美国贸易逆差扩大，导致外国投资者持有美国资产（包括国债和股票）增加，这使得美国股市面临脆弱性。美国家庭对股票的持有比例创历史新高，这使得股市在去美元化冲击下更加脆弱。
预测风险资产价格的未来走势很难，需要关注技术指标和价格行为。未来可能达成一系列贸易协议，逐步降低关税，最终稳定市场。
虽然市场存在对美元失去储备货币地位的担忧，但美国在创新、资本市场、法治和产权保护等方面的优势将使其保持领先地位。尽管存在负面因素，但美国在创新、资本市场和法治等方面的优势将使其继续吸引全球资金流入。
判断美国股市触底需要技术确认，例如价格回测、看涨背离和市场宽度推力等。黄金价格上涨，但黄金ETF的资金流入却滞后，这表明黄金市场仍有上涨空间。比特币与其他资产的脱钩现象正在显现，这表明其作为避险资产的潜力。
当前市场情绪低迷，但技术面需要进一步确认才能判断市场是否触底。市场存在合理的担忧，但最终体系将会保持稳定，未来将出现良好的买入机会。
Ash Bennington: (主要为引导性问题，未表达核心观点)
supporting_evidences
Warren Pies: 'Yeah, absolutely. So we wanted to start the chart report and just kind of understand how unique, it feels unique, these moves. So we wanted to frame that up in our report. So the first thing we did was to look at over these 10-day periods, when have we ever seen the 10-year yields up by 40 plus basis points while the dollar index is down by 3% or more?...'
Warren Pies: 'This time, though, when you go the final layer down and you look at gold priced in a number of other developed market currencies, look at gold in euros, gold in Swiss francs, gold in Japanese yen, it was flat to down across these currencies over this period, which makes this set of cross-asset flows completely unique to history. We now see a picture where bonds were down, The dollar was down. S&P 500 was down. Gold was up in dollar terms and gold was flat across other developed market currencies...'
Warren Pies: 'If I was going to advise the administration, I think that number one, we should identify our goals. Like, do you want to raise a little revenue? Do you also want to bring down trade barriers? I think those are, those are foreign trade barriers. I think those are good goals. The it's about, it's about how you go about that...'
Warren Pies: 'We've been big gold bulls for a while. So I think we were, we came into 2024 saying like, this is the year where we break out to new all-time highs. And we thought that the secular bull market had started. And one of the, some of the things we looked for was when we made a breakout, we saw a gold breakout number one and an equal currency basis first...'
Warren Pies: 'Yeah, no, I think that, I mean, the idea was, and we had some charts on this, is that Bitcoin had been a great diversifier during market rallies. over history. We'd never seen a period where Bitcoin had diversified portfolios during equity market weakness...'
Warren Pies: 'yeah my takeaway is that there's a lot of fear out there and it's legitimate i don't want to wipe i don't want to you know, brush it off. Like, and we went through that. It's legitimate fear, but I think the system holds, you don't get 20 plus percent sell-offs in the equity markets without legitimate, scary stories floating around. This one's a legitimate, but we're going to get through it. And I think ultimately on the other side of this is a, is a good buying opportunity...'
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