Trump Tariffs Trigger Market Meltdown, JPMorgan Raises Recession Odds: PALvatar Market Recap, April 04 2025
Real Vision: Finance & Investing
Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
Happy Friday, everyone. Although it's not been very happy for stock investors, that's for sure. Listen, I'm Palvatar, and I'm going to tell you what's happening in the markets. Of course, I'm Raoul's AI avatar, so don't expect his in-depth analysis or views. But he was live last night with RV's chief crypto analyst, Jamie Coutts, reacting to the tariffs. So check that out. It's available for free. I also recommend watching Andrea Steno's Flash update for pro macro members.
Okay, let's look at the markets. And boy, equities are not looking pretty at the moment. The pain is set to continue today after Thursday was the worst day for US stock markets since March 2020 during the COVID pandemic. The Nasdaq plunged 6%, the S&P 500 shed 5%, and it's looking like another red day on Wall Street after losses in Asia and Europe. Somewhat surprisingly, crypto prices have remained largely stable as of this moment, which is lunchtime in Europe.
OSF and Mando will talk about it on today's Wrecked Vision at 11.30am Eastern or 4.30pm if you're in London. US President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping new tariffs has already brought retaliatory measures from Beijing, with China imposing 34% tariffs on all imports from the United States from April 10th. Since returning to power, Trump has slapped multiple tariffs on Chinese imports that collectively amount to 54%.
There's growing concern about inflationary pressures stemming from this global trade war as it may lead to increased consumer prices while simultaneously dampening economic growth prospects. Analysts at JPMorgan have raised their recession probability forecast for the US to 60%. Amid this backdrop of uncertainty, investors are monitoring data releases such as the non-farm payrolls, which should be out by the time you're watching this.
Expectations were for around 135,000 to 140,000 jobs added in March, which would mark a slowdown. The unemployment rate was expected to remain steady at 4.1%. If the markets are swinging wildly, it's possible the numbers came in ahead of or below expectations. We'll also hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding monetary policy direction amidst rising inflation concerns linked to Trump's tariff strategy. So all in all, a busy day.
I hope you can all get some rest this weekend, as this is a crazy difficult time for any investor. Take care, don't fuck this up, and I'll see you on Monday.