Germany's election tests a far-right firewall
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Germany is holding snap elections. Europe's largest economy was once the envy of the world. Now it's stagnating. And that, combined with tensions over immigration, a complicated history with Russia, and the rise of a far-right party, has set the scene for a bit of a nail-biter.

On this weekend's episode of Reuters World News, what is ailing Germany? And will the firewalls set in place after World War II to prevent political extremism fail? I'm your host, Jonah Green. ♪

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Learn more at phrma.org/ipworkswonders. Every political system seems a bit weird from the outside, doesn't it? In the U.S., we have a two-party system. Simple enough. We are bitterly divided, and it can sometimes feel like what team we root for forms every aspect of our personality and our community.

And while the results of our presidential contests are a little less predictable these days, at least our calendar is set in stone. But not so in Europe. European countries have a habit of calling snap elections, forming and dissolving coalitions, in a way that I personally find baffling. And Germany is a good example. In case you have not been following German politics very closely, let's quickly get you up to speed.

In November, Chancellor Olaf Scholz was trying to get his budget passed, but a disagreement with his finance minister, largely over aid to Ukraine, helped collapse the government. And that is why we now have snap elections on February 23rd.

Polls show Schulz's party, the center-left Social Democrats, are in third place behind a far-right party known as Alternative for Germany or the AFD. The frontrunner is the center-right Christian Democrats, aka the party of Angela Merkel.

Okay, so now that we're all oriented, I'd like to bring in our panelists for today's episode. Maria Martinez covers the German economy. Thomas Eskrit covers politics and the far right. And Reham Al-Khouza covers energy and migration policy. And they all join us now from Berlin. Hello, everybody. Hey. Thank you. Thomas, we know Schulz's government had been squabbling for months on a range of issues before things snapped. So how did we get to this point? The

The broader context is that Germany is in something of a transition from a period when it was the envy of the world and could do no wrong, was economically successful. Somewhat glibly, we describe the models that made it so successful during the years of Chancellor Angela Merkel, of plentiful gas, plentiful cheap energy from Russia, and strong demand for German products from China.

And basically, this allowed Germany to effectively coast on very, very easily with not having to worry very much about investment, not really having to worry about anything, because they were able to make the goods that the world needed and the world was desperate to buy them. And all of that was benevolently surveilled by a very pro-trade union.

US-led liberal order. Every single element of this, from China's hunger for German imports to plentiful Russian energy to the US's commitment to an open liberal order internationally is now in question. And Germany is perhaps the single country that suffers from that the most because it was the country whose economy and its entire philosophy was most committed to it.

And so you have the kind of micro explanation, which of course is that the coalition collapsed because they couldn't agree on a budget. But that just reflected a very deep disagreements between the parties on how on earth we're going to reinvent ourselves for the next era after all the assumptions upon which we've been functioning for the last 20 years have collapsed. I must just say on the energy part, because it is one of the main reasons why the German economy is struggling. This cut from

from Russia came at the same time while Germany is trying to become carbon neutral. So they got less gas from Russia, they could not burn more coal and at the same time they had exited nuclear power because the previous government had agreed that they would exit nuclear. So it came pounding all the same time

So obviously the economy and Ukraine are big issues. So is migration. Americans remember that Germany was in the spotlight back in 2015 and 2016 for its migration policy.

when it opened its borders to more than one million migrants, many from Syria. But there's been a more recent uptick too, right? Germany took two million refugees from Ukraine, Syria, Afghanistan, Turkey from 2022 until today. There are also 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees who came legally to Germany, plus 800,000 refugees from elsewhere who came to apply for asylum.

Talking about 2 million refugees that they had to find housing for, they had to find schools for, kindergarten places, integration courses. And that came in 2022 while the economy is facing a huge crisis. The costs exploded. This issue of migration came at the same time while there was a series of

attacks by partners and asylum seekers in Germany, which got a lot of reaction from the German public and media and politicians that Germany has lost control over the issue, has lost control of who is getting into the country and who is not being able to be deported. And that transferred the popularity of the far-right AFD party in Germany. So migration and the sagging economy

has given rise to this far-right party, Alternative for Germany, or AFD. What do we need to know about them? So this is interesting. I mean, the AFD is a curious party. It started a decade ago. It has a very typical trajectory of these anti-system far-right parties. It started off as a kind of

Libertarian Party, which said it affected to be about having reservations about European economic policy. What was curious about this is that as time passed, it evolved into a classic anti-immigration nativist party, doesn't like Muslims, doesn't like immigrants, especially if they don't look the same as Germans. The AFD denies all of that, says it's definitely not a far-right party.

and that the criticisms made of it are part of a plot by establishment parties and the security apparatus to discredit it. They even say that they're not opposed to immigration, that they just want it to be managed in a particular way and for there to be tight limits on it.

A lot of its most prominent figures are quite closely professed deep admiration for either for Trump or for figures around him. And they're very good at capturing the discourse and reshaping the election to reflect their own themes. How so? So, for example, we had the main challenger, the person who is expected to win the election, the Christian Democrats, who's led by Friedrich Merz. They wanted to run a campaign focusing on the economy, basically saying that

The current chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has lost it. He can't run the economy. We need to switch to the conservatives, Friedrich Merz, who used to be a lobbyist for various financial services companies, in particular for BlackRock. And that was the original focus of their campaign. The CDU, Christian Democrats, wanted to run a campaign focusing on economics and on his economic prowess. But...

partly because of several very high-profile and nasty terrorist attacks, which were immediately seized upon by the AFD as evidence of what Reham said, of Germany losing control of the situation. The AFD were able to refocus the campaign entirely on their own home territory. And so now the campaign is in a slightly awkward position where everyone is competing to make very tough-sounding noises about immigration.

Yeah, and many experts have been saying that this discourse from the AFD is shifting the whole discourse for all parties towards the right. So what was the Conservatives and the Conservatives under a former Chancellor

Angela Merkel was more in the middle, now it's going to the right, while AFD is going more even to the right. So the whole discourse is turning to the right. I found this interesting study by the Kiel Institute that says that inflation and weak economic growth boost the electoral performance of these populist parties. And I

And I think that we shouldn't forget the role that inflation played in many elections last year, not only in the U.S., but also in the U.K., in France, in Argentina, in the Netherlands. We have seen how they have changed governments with this global inflation spike that we had. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, I mean, this is what happened in the U.S. You know, we had a rightward shift across the board among many demographics.

A lot of that was due to inflation. Part of it was also migration. So the messaging is very similar, but Germany has a unique history. And until recently, the assumption was that after World War II, Germany was kind of inoculated against the rise of any new far-right movement. But now the AFD is surging.

Is there a concern that this is a resurgence of Nazism? I think it's a very valid question. Maria and I were watching the first debate between the Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and his main challenger, Friedrich Merz. And one of the curious things, actually, was that the AFD was not there because all the mainstream parties of joint forces say they will never work with the AFD. The AFD is beyond the pale. There is a so-called firewall to keep the AFD out of legislative authority, out of government. And

What was curious about it was, of course, even though the leader of the AFD, Alice Weidel, was not there, the party was present throughout the debate. It ran like a golden thread throughout the debate. And one of the main themes was the two men, Scholz and Merz, blaming each other for the party's rise. Merz was arguing that Scholz's economic dilettantism had fueled the far-right's rise, as Maria was describing, the inflation, which, of course, Merz blamed on Scholz personally, whereas Scholz

blamed Merz for his flirting with anti-immigration rhetoric for strengthening the far right. So it was very clear that both of them were very keen not to be seen as deemed for blame for this situation. So to that extent, I think fear of the far right still has a salience in Germany that it doesn't have, I think, in most other countries. People are regularly looking for parallels to what happened in the 1930s, saying, are we there yet? It's a perennial topic of conversation in German political circles. They're asking,

Who is the person we have to look out for? Who are the dangers? That said, the firewall is under strain. In parts of the country, the party is actually the largest in the polls. Overall, it's running second in the polls behind the CDU, behind the Christian Democrats. It has to be said a fairly distant second for now, but that could change. The polls are very volatile. And I do think, I mean, in Germany, there is a singular horror about the history. People are taught it in schools. And it has to be said that if the AFD is on 20%,

There are an awful lot of people in this country who really hate them as well. So it's tempting to go straight for the historical analogies and it's understandable, but I think we have to be careful with them. Yeah, but at the same time, there were things that it makes it even more difficult not to think about those historical parallels. For instance, Alice Vidal, who's like the chancellor candidate for the AFG. Now the AFG supporters in the AFG election events, they are chanting,

Alice with an I, like her name, for Deutschland, which is really close to a band Nazi slogan, which says Alice for Deutschland, which means everything is for Germany. It's a band Nazi slogan.

slogan. So it is a bit difficult not to see the parallels and not to see that the supporters of the AfD are kind of testing the waters of what could be acceptable, what is still not acceptable to be said, bringing that parallel from Germany's history. So this is a great example of the way the party operates with transgressions which appear to be deliberate but which can also be denied.

So a regional party leader, Björn Höcke, he's regarded as being the most radical figure in the AFD. And he said this slogan, Alles für Deutschland, everything for Germany, and was prosecuted for it. The reason he was prosecuted was because the use of Nazi slogans and symbols in Germany is illegal. But he, despite himself being a history teacher, denied that he had realized that the slogan he was using had this Nazi connotation.

He simply said that he had merely been declaring that he would do everything for Germany. So yes, always operating on the border between transgression and deniability. It certainly recalls other recent events. It was very striking when the businessman Elon Musk made an unusual gesture at a rally after Donald Trump's victory in the elections. And it was interpreted by many as

as a Nazi gesture. But of course, he says it wasn't. And likewise, the AFD as a party has consistently denied that their platform is aligned with Nazi ideology. As for Musk, he's a big supporter of the AFD. So talk to me about the Musk factor. How relevant is he? Is he moving the needle?

He's not a popular figure here. I think it makes a difference in the sense that it shows that the party's isolation is being gradually eroded. So there was a time when international figures would have been very cautious about expressing support for the AFD because they would have thought the risks were too great, that it would cost them their relationships with the important people, that is to say the people who will be running in Germany. But I think with Trump's victory, with Musk's endorsement, that's

that calculus has slightly shifted. Both leaders, Schultz and Mertz, just this past week reaffirmed their commitment to not work with the AFD. But Mertz did depend on AFD support for an immigration deal. Schultz criticized him for this. And Mertz said that

He would put up resolutions no matter who supported them, but that his party would still not form a coalition with or negotiate with the AFD. However, the leader of the AFD's response was, quote, the firewall has fallen.

So how strong is Germany's firewall against political extremism? That was a genuine watershed in post-war German history, because while Merz did not seek the support of the AFD, he allowed a situation to occur in parliament

where for the first time ever, a motion, a parliamentary motion passed specifically thanks to the votes of the AFD. So he's had to say the AFD, it was the AFD's decision that made it pass. They were the difference between it happening or not happening. And that was a first in post-war German history. And that has triggered quite a lot of anger. So you have, there have been protests around the country the last few days, and he's been compared just outside my house, actually. There's a poster of Friedrich Merz

And someone has daubed the name of a notorious figure from Germany's 1930s over his face. They've put the name Franz von Papen over his face. Franz von Papen was the interwar conservative politician who decided to bring Hitler into government in the belief that Hitler was a clown who would discredit himself once in power and that in any case, the professionals, the serious conservative professional politicians

would be able to control him. And so that comparison, I think it's pretty obvious, is not fair in any way. I'm not endorsing it. However, it's interesting that the level of anger it's triggered among some people is very intense and people are on the lookout for it. You mentioned the economic situation had boosted the prospects of extremes on both ends. What do we know about the far left in

What's interesting, there is a strong pro-Russian faction on the extremes of German politics. The AFD, for example, opposes supporting Ukraine, and so does a small leftist party, left authoritarian party, called the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance, and it's named after the woman who founded it.

And they share, they of course say that they are advocating peace. But what does that mean in practice? What that means in practice is they think Germany should not be sending weapons to Ukraine. One risk that we have now is that in a very fragmented parliament, many reforms, and when we're talking about these structural reforms for the economy, you need a two-thirds majority. If these small parties made it into the government, into the parliament, it would be very

very difficult to get the needed majorities for these structural reforms. So it's a scenario that is not very likely, but also we cannot rule it out.

As we talk about coalitions and governments forming and collapsing, can you just explain for our American listeners who might still be a bit confused, how German governments come into being? Whoever can command the majority in parliament gets to form a government. It's almost impossible under the German electoral system for a single party to get the outright majority of votes in parliament.

And even then, as Maria says, some laws need more than just a majority. They need two thirds in Parliament and the majority of the upper house as well. And so that

That means that to govern Germany effectively, you need to have alliances of parties. So the people who argue in favor of this says that it does create a very consensual society because as a politician, you are slightly limited in what you can say because you never know if you're not going to have to govern with this person. However, it can lead to indecision and paralysis and failure to do things that are necessary. So what are the implications of this election beyond Germany?

Germany is, after the US, the second largest supplier of support, money and weapons to Ukraine. I think that's the most direct consequence. All the main parties do agree on the need to continue supporting Ukraine.

as Maria says, if the far right and far left parties that are more pro-Russian managed between them to get a third of the votes, a third of the seats in parliament, giving them power to block things, then that could have very serious consequences, I think, for Germany's support for Ukraine. And Germany is Europe's biggest economy. It

If Germany is struggling, this has consequences for all economies. It is all interconnected. And I think we also have to take into consideration that if you are not performing economically, you are politically irrelevant. And we will need a strong Europe with a strong Germany if we have the risk of tariffs and other trade conflicts coming from the U.S.,

The same goes to migration. If Germany starts pushing people on the border, which is one of the promises for the conservatives, that they would enable such pushbacks for refugees, all other European countries will take the lead. It will be kind of a domino effect on migration for asylum seekers that other countries would naturally fall into this.

the same direction so it plays a big role on that point as well Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with a message for everyone paying big wireless way too much please for the love of everything good in this world stop with Mint you can get premium wireless for just $15 a month of course if you enjoy overpaying no judgements but that's weird okay one judgment

Anyway, give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch.

And just one note, we recorded this conversation a day before an Afghan asylum seeker drove a car into a crowd in Munich, injuring at least 30 people and once again refocusing the campaign on migration issues. Also, shortly before publication, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance met with Alice Vidal, the leader of the AFD, while on a visit to Germany. We'll

We'll have the latest coverage of this election as Germans head to the polls on February 23rd. Thanks again to Reham, Thomas, and Maria for their time and expertise. Reuters World News is produced by Gail Issa, David Spencer, Christopher Waljasper, Kim Bunnell, Sharon Reich-Garson, and me, Jonah Green. Our senior producers are Tara Oaks and Carmel Crimmins. Our executive producer is Lila Dekretzer. Musical composition and sound design by Josh Sommer.

We'll be back on Monday with our daily headline show. To make sure you never miss an episode, click follow on your favorite podcast platform or download the Reuters app.