2025 March Market Cap Madness: Andy vs. Matt
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This week, next week, and the week after, make up our second annual March Market Cap Madness. Final four of past champions coming back to compete this March for our 2025 Market Cap Game Show World Championship. That's right, we have our own March Madness on this podcast, and our final four this year are Andy Cross, Matt Argesinger,

Bill Barker and Emily Flippen, each of whom won their invitational last year to qualify for this month's World Championships. And this week features defending world champion Andy Cross competing against Matt Argesinger and you.

That's right, you're playing too. You and any friends you may be competing against on your own this week, you will also generate a final score from 0 to 10. Can you outscore my talented contestants? It's March, market cap madness, round one, game one, only on this week's Rule Breaker Investing. It's the Rule Breaker Investing podcast with Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner.

Welcome back to Rule Breaker Investing. I am rubbing my hands together. I have my world champion here, and I have the OG of the Market Cap Game Show. Andy Cross and Matt Argersinger have played this game any number of times. They're both extremely good at it, and yet, I want you to know we're actually playing it for the third player, and that is you. That's right, you, our dear fellow Foolish listener, as we get ready to crank up our Market Cap Game Show music.

Let me just briefly remind, especially our new listeners, new players, how this game works. I'll be mentioning a stock. Neither Andy nor Matt knows what stock is coming. I'll turn to one of them to talk a bit about whatever stock they didn't know was coming. And that fool will do his best to state a numerical range within which the company's market capitalization, market cap, within which that range falls.

And the other contestant, and by the way, you playing at home, will simply say, I agree, meaning it's accurate. The stock's value falls inside that range, or I disagree. I think it's outside that stated range. So you simply agree or disagree, and if you get it right, give yourself a plus one. That's the Market Cap Game Show. We're focused on the real market caps of real stocks. Nobody knows what's coming. A perfect score would be 10. ♪

All right, when he's not out cutting ribbons at grocery store openings or kissing babies.

or inspiring the next generation with heartfelt speeches, all the kind of thing you have to do when you're a reigning world champion. Andy Cross works on Stock Advisor backstage and with my brother Tom Gardner on his everlasting services like Hidden Gems. Oh, and by the way, he's the Motley Fool's chief investment officer, where he's tasked with helping our investment teams produce the best guidance and experience for you, our members, and listeners.

Listeners, welcome Andy. David, it's great to be here. Nobody wants me out kissing babies, so I'm glad that I was not actually doing that, but thank you for the kind introduction. It's just great to be back here and to compete very hard against an astute and wise and very experienced investor like Matt. I agree with that, and yet I also want to say, Andy, did you not go on a worldwide tour? My understanding was, after you won our world championship, we came up with a budget and we flew you around and

David, the trip to Buenos Aires was fantastic. I didn't kiss any babies down there, but yeah, that was a great trip. Andy, let's get started with stock No. 1. Are you ready for a corporate tagline? Yes, sir. Technology is our how, people are our why.

Do you recognize that? I don't. It sounds like it could be the familiar phrase of many tech companies out there these days. I agree with that, and thereby hangs a tale, which I will tell briefly. This first came up last year. I think it was June 2024. Bill Barker was on this show. I threw down this stock with its corporate tagline that I just shared, "Technologies are how, people are our why." I said, "Bill, any guesses as to what that company is?"

And he nailed it. Why did he nail it? Because he had just written up that stock as a recommendation for our members, and we couldn't air that on the show because we were giving away the goods of his most recent recommendation. So, in one of the most hilarious moments we've ever had in this Market Cap Game Show, Bill Barker looked at technology as our how, people are our why, and he said, I think that's Endava Associates. And that is, in fact, stock number one. Now, they've changed their website.

Guys, I couldn't believe this. I checked in. I'm not going to say that being featured on a popular global investing podcast was influential enough to be the tail that wagged the corporate dog and changed their corporate communications, but we were kind of making jokes about

That was kind of a lame tagline. As you said, Andy, it could be anything. And literally, as I check it -- check it, dear listener, go to Endava's site, you're going to see they've got a brand new motto on their website. Here it is. You can tell me, Andy, if it's any better. "Transforming businesses with intelligence."

Maybe a little better. Maybe a little better. I feel the same way. I do think it's a little bit better. A for effort. Again, I'm not saying this podcast caused them to rethink their corporate communications. I'm not saying that. All right. Well, we've talked enough about it. The ticker symbol, Andy, is D-A-V-A. The company is Endava Limited. It's an ADR, an American Depository Receipt. This is a British company.

Andy Cross, what is your stated market cap range for Endava Limited? It is headquartered in the UK, but it's priced in dollars. So I'm going to give the dollar market cap range. And I'm going to say, I think it's been a struggle for Endava. I'm going to say between $2 and $4 billion in market cap.

Andy, you stated a range of $2 billion to $4 billion. Matt, is this a company that you've ever come across? It is not, David. And I do like the new slogan, I wonder if AI has had something to do with it. I was thinking the same. We don't need the people anymore. We've got AI. So, it's really just about intelligence. It could actually be AI-generated technology.

Sane. You're right. Their whole corporate communications team might just be a computer. That's right. ChatGPT running things over there. I doubt it. But transforming businesses with intelligence? I mean, I can vote for that. I can get behind that. Yeah, I agree. How about Andy's stated market cap range of $2 billion to $4 billion? Matt and players at home, do you want to agree with Andy's market cap, or do you want to disagree? I am going to agree with Andy's $2 billion to $4 billion market cap.

Unfortunately, Andy kind of mentioned this. Things have not been great over in Adava headquarters. The stock has -- well, we'll talk about that in a sec. But it is hilarious to me. Again, I randomized what stocks we're going to cover. And there are 500 stocks, the 500 most popular of our members. And I take two numbers and battle them against each other and just say, "OK, 37 vs. 279. What would people enjoy talking about more?" And literally,

three of the last four shows, and Dava Limited has showed up. And they've changed their corporate tagline, and the market cap is $970.62 million. It is a sub-$1 billion micro-cap enterprise at this point. By the way, guys, stocks plunged from $34 to $23 just over the past three weeks.

Yeah, well, a lot of that is tied to some of the AI work that's been going down with some of their clients and just how much real consulting, digital consulting, how much real digital consulting will corporations need and even governments as well, too. So it's been a real struggle for Endava, but I had not known it had gotten that small.

Well, as we move to stock No. 2, I'm just going to say, we're cheering on Endava Limited. This is a Motley Fool recommendation, a few services. And I like transforming businesses with intelligence, and I like that they may have even tweaked it based on us making jokes about their previous corporate tagline. Let's move on to stock No. 2. Matt Argersinger helped initiate the Market Cap Game Show, having been there with me in 2017 as we debuted the show. He is, as I mentioned earlier, the OG.

Matt currently works on The Motley Fool's dividend investor service. You can catch him regularly on The Motley Fool Money podcast. He enjoys traveling, collecting vintage comic books, and most of all, spending time with his wife and six-year-old son. Welcome, Matt. Hey, thanks, David. Great to be back.

I can't believe it's already been seven years since then. I think we call it just about eight at this point. We're rounding up to 17. That's right, we're in 2025. Yeah, and I had so much fun with you. Back then, it was just me calling out a company, and you needed to get within 20% of the market cap. That's right. We didn't have another contestant, and we've evolved this game over time, and I think it's gotten better and better. I love it. I love this version of it. The head-to-head, the ranges, the bluffing that Andy just did on that Endava market cap. It's great. Yes.

Matt, let me ask you. I'm not sure I've ever asked you this. Have you ever tried to learn a new language as an adult? Not really. I've tried to learn and relearn German many times as an adult. But I've spoken German since I was a kid, but not a new language, no. So you couldn't be...

attracted into the language game by a certain app that you might download from the App Store that gamifies the learning of new languages, you haven't been inspired by such an app. I haven't. In the world we're living in now, when AI is basically going to translate everything right in a second, I feel like I've missed the boat on learning a new language.

I mean, there certainly are pleasures to learning a new language. Certainly. And the culture that you probably learn along with that language. And yet, the whole Babelfish and going back to Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, or just having a little thing in your ear that enables you to hear any language, we're not that far from that right now. So, there is a question as to how many languages we really do need to learn. Well, as you might have suspected, stock No. 2 is Duolingo, ticker symbol DUO.

And sometimes, as we've talked about this, Doc, on the show, we've said, is this a language learning company or is this just a video game company that happens to use language learning as its hook? So gamifying, I would say very attractively. They've got the whole owl mascot going on. There's a lot going on with Duo the Owl. But guys, let me be straight with you. This is a throwdown. Throwdown.

That's right, oh my gosh, it's a throwdown round on stock number two. So to remind our players at home, both Matt and Andy will now write down their market cap range for Duolingo. Pencils out, fools. And all you have to do as a player at home is once Matt and Andy state their market caps, you just decide what you want to go with. Does Matt's range seem more plausible to you, or does Andy's? And if you guess right...

Give yourself a point. Now, there's a chance they'll both be right, especially if they use wide ranges. So if they're both right, the tighter range wins the point. And if they're both wrong, it does happen. In that case, whoever's closer to the actual market cap gets the plus one. Again, this is a throwdown. We do this twice every show. Stock number two, Duolingo. Matt, I'm going to turn back to you first. What is your market cap range for Duolingo? David, I'm going...

to $3 to $5 billion.

$3 billion to $5 billion. That was about as tight, because you want to make it as tight as you can. That's as tight as you would comfortably make that market cap? I think so. Okay, $3 billion to $5 billion. Now let me turn to Andy Cross. Andy, what is your stated market cap range for Duolingo? Wow, Duo the Owl is going to be either really mad at me or really happy at me. I'm not quite sure which one, because I am much larger. I am $23 billion to $28 billion in market cap with Duolingo. $23 billion to $28 billion. Players at home,

I'm not sure we've ever seen this kind of disparity between two experts. So, dear listener at home, this is what you have to do now. You have to decide who is closer. Matt at $3 billion to $5 billion, or Andy at $23 billion to $28 billion. I'm going to give you three seconds. You're going to need to say that name aloud. You ready? Three, two, one. Who's right?

Alright, and if you said, "Matt, give yourself a +1," Matt severely undershot Duolingo's market cap. And Andy, you a little bit more overshot it. So, the market cap for Duolingo is $13.53 billion. Yes, we take it out to a second decimal, which means, by the way, that Matt was about 8.5 under?

And Andy was about nine and a half over. And for that reason, Matt, close enough, walks away with the W. We're tied at one.

Speaking, guys, of stocks that have got hammered in just the last three weeks, we mentioned Endava 34-23. Duolingo in the last three weeks, 440-295. That's a third of its value in less than a month. This one's been picked a few times for Fool services, including twice for Motley Fool Rule Breakers. I'm happy to say, despite the recent difficulties,

We're still well in the money with those picks. Andy, do you use Duolingo? I do. I'm on a 180-day streak with French, so I decided to pick up French, which I never have spoken before, and wanted to tell you. That's great. Yeah.

You know, streaks are such an addictive and sometimes pressuring thing. Do you feel like the need that you have to show up? Otherwise, you would lose your 180-day streak? Yes, I do feel that. And clearly, it did not help me with the Market Cap Game Show this week. I mean, you both were pretty close. What's interesting with Duolingo is they give you some... You can freeze and unfreeze if you miss a day, which I find very reassuring. And that's nice in case you do miss a day. And I have missed a day in some of those. So the streak is...

A little bit not 100% accurate, but it's close enough. It's true. I wish Wordle did that because that's the one streak I have to keep up with. And I had a 120-day streak on Wordle going. But I traveled and I went to a different time zone and I just got the times wrong. So I lost my streak. Not because I got the word wrong. Heartbreaking. Yeah. You shouldn't have traveled. You should have stayed faithful to Wordle. Every day. Every day.

Don't miss it. Let's move on to stock No. 3. Andy, what do you think of executives who have important roles across multiple companies? I don't like it, David. Especially if it's the CEO, I prefer them to be as 100% focused on the business that they are running as possible.

And it can be especially problematic, presumably, when they're public companies. Now, Steve Jobs was CEO of Pixar and CEO of Apple for a while. He seemed to be able to make that work. Obviously, Elon Musk seems to be CEO of I don't even know how many companies. He seems to be able to make it work. So it is possible. But I'm not sure these people, Jobs, Musk, are human. I think they may be superhuman or cyborgs. I think that is exactly true. I think that is superhuman intelligence and stamina just to do that.

Well, the executive of the next company, stock number three, is an American businessman who serves as chairman and CEO of one company. In addition, he is executive chairman of another company and non-executive chairman of two other companies, including this stock.

GXO Logistics, some of us may recognize Brad Jacobs as somebody who's made a career of trying to roll up logistics companies, roll up an industry, raise money, and then try to create value. And at different points, he's looked like a genius. Right now, I wouldn't say he looks that much like a genius, but I don't want to spoil any of our market cap guesses right now. But both RxO Inc. and GXO Logistics

where he is non-executive chairman, are spin-offs from XPO, one of his other companies. But I think QXO, there's an X in the middle of each of these, is his best known. Andy, have you ever met Brad Jacobs? I've not met him. No, I know...

very successful in different endeavors, and then ended up running XPO. Yeah. And so, he's got a lot of executive positions across these different companies. The ticker symbol, Andy, is GXO. What is your stated market cap range for GXO Logistics? David, I will say $4 billion to $8 billion. $4 billion to $8 billion. Giving himself a wider berth than we've seen earlier in this game.

Matt, do you know this company? I don't. I think I'm a little more familiar with XPO. I didn't realize they had spun off that many companies. Interesting. Yeah. He likes to just raise a lot of money and then basically try to roll up an industry, specifically the logistics industry. This company, by the way, came public in the summer of 2021, but we'll talk about that in a sec.

Matt, players at home, Andy said $4 billion to $8 billion. Do you want to agree with Andy's range or disagree with Andy's range? I don't know why I think it's bigger, so I'm going to disagree. He did a pretty good job, actually. It's $4.5 billion. Oh, nice one. He had it near the downside, but yeah, you got it, Andy. $4.5 billion for GXO, which, by the way, I started to say earlier, came public in the summer of 2021. It shot, like a lot of things in the summer of 2021, from $50 to $100 billion.

before the end of that year. In 2022, it lost two-thirds of its value, plunging below its IPO price.

Over the past two years, it's bounced around between $40 and $60. It's now below $40, $37, and changed. This has not really been a successful company at this stage. Yeah, it sounds like it. I believe XPO, Matty, as you said, XPO has been the big winner among the different companies that he runs. Among the XOs?

Or QXO. Don't we want to mention QXO? This is a stock with a $5.4 billion market cap, where Brad Jacobs is the chairman and the CEO. So, this is alphabet soup, guys. Kind of hard to keep -- I mean, part of me wants to say, "Focus, Brad. Focus."

Or trust. Trust others to be able to focus for you. Ooh, yeah. Let's move on to stock No. 4. By my count, it's Andy 2, Matt 1. Stock No. 4. Matt, one of my top investing tips that I've used to, I would say, great effect over the years is to favor great brands.

Those stocks end up looking overvalued to people, because there's no consistent measure of brand value on company financial statements. And so, people who love deep value and doing deep valuations consistently view stocks, like Starbucks or, at a smaller level, Lululemon, as overvalued. And they won't touch them as they go on sometimes to rise 10X or more in value over the years. So, when it works -- and it works much of the time --

Brand is a wonderful guide to finding winning Rule Breakers stocks. And yet, it doesn't always work. Matt, when I say protect this house...

Does that scare up any memories for you? It does. Scare might be the right word, but Under Armour kind of comes to mind. I think that might have been close to their tagline at some point. Yes, I think it was 2004. Apparently, I wasn't paying attention, but they resurrected and brought it back a couple of years ago because it was an iconic campaign for Under Armour. A few others, I don't really remember these, but I looked them up on Wikipedia. I will what I want.

That was 2014 for female athletes. And then in 2015, Rule Yourself.

featuring the grueling hours upon hours of practice necessary to become a lead. Under Armour distinguished itself early on as a company that really understood branding. There was a time, guys, when it was saber-rattling at Nike and looked like it might be able to be a Pepsi to Nike's Coke. But turns out, that's not how history played out. Matt, as I turn back to you,

It doesn't really matter. This is a company with two ticker symbols. They've got an A stock. But we're just going to go with UA. They have the same market cap, so it doesn't really matter. But, Matt, what is your stated market cap range for Under Armour, ticker symbol UA? Well, I know it used to be a lot larger. So, I am going to say it's between...

$1 billion and $3 billion right now. $1 billion and $3 billion. Andy, protect this house. Does that still make the hairs rise on the back of your neck as you think about the importance of not losing at home in any athletic contest? No, not really, just because the stock's done so poorly. If the stock had done better, maybe so. But I think Matt is in that right ballpark. I'm actually going to agree with Matt on the $1 billion to $3 billion.

Andy has already put his cards on the table. He agrees. Listeners at home, it's up to you as well. Matt said $1 billion to $3 billion. Do you want to agree with Matt's range or disagree? Kevin Plank, remember? He founded this company. He served as CEO for years. He went to the University of Maryland. He was a football player there, right? That's right. He really turned that into a phenomenon for a good 10 years or so, but not so much the last 10 years.

Alright, so Andy has agreed. Players at home, make your call right now. And if you agreed, give yourself a plus one. Because, yeah, the market cap is much lower than I was thinking, but not that Matt was thinking, because it was within his range, and Andy recognized that it was within that range. So, Andy, you get the plus one. It was $2.8 billion on the nose. $2.8

billion. Oh, how the mighty have fallen! Guys, this stock came public in 2006 at a split-adjusted $4 billion. It topped $54 billion in 2015. That was the high. It's back to about $6.5 billion today. So, if you just bought and held this stock 10 years ago, 2015, you're down more than 80%. Before we move on to stock No. 5, guys, what happened? What happened here?

I don't know. I mean, I still see people wearing... I own a lot of Under Armour. I still buy it now and then. And...

I guess. I don't know. I don't know, Andy, what happened. I think they pivoted a little bit too much to the really hardcore on the performance side, and they missed. And then, really, athleisure came along with Lululemon. In fact, Matty, I don't think you were in our meeting. It was a stock advisor, stock analyst meeting, and we were talking between Lululemon and Under Armour, which one would be bigger and a better performing stock. And I voted for Under Armour at that time. And that was obviously the wrong decision to make, because Lululemon went on

But it's amazing, because I think Tom Brady is an Under Armour athlete, or was. Steph Curry is. Right. I mean, there's some big names behind that brand, and yet, it just doesn't -- $2.8 billion market cap. Unbelievable. But you know what? Maybe it's a heck of a buy right now. How much is just the brand value of this company worth on its own, and those relationships with athletes?

It might be a heck of a buy right now, but I'll tell you this. We've had it in Rule Breakers, and that's on me, and it has been a serious underperformer. So that's why I truly ask, what happened? And I'm still trying to figure it out. All right. By my count, it's Andy 3, Matt 1. How are you doing at home, players? If you have 4, that's a perfect score so far. Keep at it. Let's move on to stock No. 5. Andy, if you had to teach someone one basic skill—

for handling life's little emergencies. What's your go-to lesson? Meditation. Breathing and meditation, David. That's fantastic, Andy.

That doesn't really go in the direction of the stock that I'm talking about. I'm so happy to hear that for you. I don't always adhere to that, David, but I'm just saying that's my design case. I wanted your authentic answer, and that might be better than the answer that I was trying to scare up with my question. So let me dial this in a little bit more focusedly. So here we go, Andy Cross. When you think about the most iconic medical product of your lifetime, think of a product whose brand name

has simply become the vernacular for what we call these adhesives. What product comes to mind? Band-Aids. Yeah. And for some of us, that's a good basic skill for handling life's little emergencies. But I agree that meditation, probably greater than sign. Band-Aids. But let's go with stock No. 5 for the company that has made Band-Aids famous, iconic,

ubiquitous. Johnson's Baby Shampoo, No More Tears, Tylenol, and the classic textbook story of pulling all the Tylenol off the shelves during that poisoning scare. Johnson & Johnson is one of our iconic companies in the United States of America. And so, that's why, Andy, I hope you're going to have a decent guess at this company's market cap. But before you guess... Hold on!

Oh my gosh, it's a throwdown. This is our second throwdown. So both Andy and Matt have their pencils out as they think about what is the market cap range they want to state as tight as possible to win the game for Johnson & Johnson, ticker symbol JNJ. So again, a throwdown round, and players at home, as Andy and Matt come up with their numbers, all you have to do is say, I agree with Andy, or I agree with Matt.

Alright, their pencils are down. Andy, let me turn to you first. What is your stated market cap range for Johnson & Johnson? David, I went large, so I'm at the $275 billion to $400 billion level. $275 billion to $400 billion. That is large with quite a lot of room. Matt, what was your stated market cap range? I'm not going quite as large. I'm $200 billion to $260 billion. Because I was thinking, they spun off Kenview.

which actually is the company that now sells and distributes Band-Aids and the shampoo brands. So I think J&J might be smaller. So I'm going $200 to $260. All right. So players at home, Matt said $200 to $260. Andy said $275 to $400. I'm going to give you three seconds. Call out one of their names. Three, two, one. And if you said, Andy, give yourself a plus one, this company...

Johnson & Johnson's market cap, $401.13 billion. Andy, just outside your range, but you put a high end of $400, well higher than Matt's. Therefore, you get the point. My goodness. I did not even think it was that large. I did either. But I wonder, Matty, do they still own a lot of Kenview stock, I believe? I believe they still might own 20% of it. You're right.

That's much bigger than I thought, though. Wow. Nice work, Andy. Thank you for the reminder, guys, about Kenview. I've really never owned Johnson & Johnson or Kenview. It's not really one of my types of stocks. I will say, the S&P 500 over the past five years is up about 100%. J&J stock, last five years, up 15%. Serious underperformer, Maddie.

3% yield on this one. Does that tempt you? It does tempt me. And I'll say, healthcare stocks in particular have had a really bad two years. And it makes me think there are probably opportunities like J&J within that sector. Alright. Well, this could be one of those Dow dogs at some point that starts looking undervalued as a longtime, again, iconic American company that was bigger than either of you thought, and yet has been a serious underperformer over the last five years. Well, it's halftime.

Now, in the past, we've had marching bands, but this year, it's special. It's 2025, and as I shared at the start of the year, my 2025 book.

Rule Breaker Investing is available for pre-order now after 30 years of stock picking. This is my magnum opus, a lifetime of lessons distilled into one definitive guide. And each week until the book launches this summer, I'm sharing a random excerpt. We just break open the book to a random page, and I read a few sentences. So let's do it. It's a brief, dramatic reading for our halftime entertainment. Here's this week's

Page breaker preview, three sentences from the part one intro, and I quote, From early days, I was inspired by my elders to study, follow, and figure out stocks. Years later, our dad would give us not just stock picks, but stock savvy and our own portfolios. I learned to build habits, and habits are what part one is all about.

End quote. That's your halftime entertainment. That's this week's Page Breaker preview. To pre-order my final word on stock picking shaped by three decades of success, just type Rule Breaker Investing into Amazon.com, BarnesandNoble.com, or wherever you shop for great books. And thank you to everyone who's pre-ordered. That means a lot to me. And that's halftime. All right, the score is Andy 4, Matt 1. Matt,

Kind of on the brink here. I mean, you're going to need to step it up right now. That's right. I mean, you are playing the defending world champion. So it was a random draw that I gave you. Maybe it was unkind. No, no. I love going up against Andy. As we talked before the show, less intimidating than going against Emily Flippen, who I know is in the next round. All right. But yeah, Andy's still formidable. Well, it's 4-1, and we've seen comebacks in this game. So let's go to stock No. 6, Matt.

What was the last biotech stock you recommended or bought or even just researched? Wow. I don't know if I've thought about or recommended or researched a single one since my Rule Breakers days, which was a long time ago, David, so my memory...

I'm not sure I can name one. That's great. Let me ask a follow-up question. Do you ever make guesses on the Market Cap Game Show? All the time. You weren't supposed to know that, though. But yes, I do! Alright, Matt, I'll spot you some more info about this company. You're down 4-1. I don't want you to have to make a crazy, crazy guess. Here's the URL to find the company's website: smttx.com. Oh my gosh. That probably doesn't help. No clue.

The company is working on a lung cancer drug, tested and approved only so far in China. So, they have a Chinese partner, and they're trying to bring it into FDA Phase III trials here in the United States of America. Does that help?

Still not ringing a bell, David, but that's OK. Well, I will say this. Merck has made a lot of money off Keytruda, which treats, by the way, more than 18 different types of cancer. And in the most fervent dreams of this management team, they have a Keytruda killer. Again, already approved in China, a lung cancer, initially indication of

Guys, I'm looking you both in the eyes. I just see blank stare. Wait, no I don't. Actually, Andy Cross, you have like a light bulb that briefly went up over your head. Only because of the URL.

Are we talking Summit Therapeutics? We are. Summit Therapeutics is the company, and that is very impressive, Andy. I didn't know this company. The ticker symbol is SMMT. If you're trying to get people not to find your website, just go with SMMTTX.com. Nicely done, Andy. That's the reason he's the CIO, by the way.

So, I guess part of me wishes I was asking Andy his range, because it seems like, Andy, you know something about this company. We'll talk a little bit more about it in a sec. But, Matt, you're actually on the hook here. What is your stated market cap range for Summit Therapeutics, ticker symbol SMMT? I might be lobbing up a softball for Andy, because I am taking a big shot in the dark here. And I'm going to say $1 billion to $5 billion is the market cap. $1 billion to $5 billion, right?

Players at home, Andy Cross. Do you want to agree with Matt's 1-5 or disagree? You know, Matt, you may not know Summit Therapeutics, but I think you might be in the right range. So I'm actually going to agree with Matt on the 1-5 billion because it is a wide range. All right. Andy liked Matt's range. Players at home, what do you think? All right. You're accountable. Let's check the results. If you...

Disagreed with Matt, give yourself a plus one, which means, Matt, you get a plus one because Andy agreed with you. This company is substantially bigger than that $1 billion to $5 billion market cap. I found myself interested doing some extra research on this one after I randomized it for our game show. The stock over the last year has, this is often true in biotech, has jumped in fits and starts. So, a year ago, it was at $5 billion. And in May of last year, it jumped from $5 billion to $10 billion.

And then in September, it jumped from the low teens to over 30, briefly, in

It's settled down, for now, just sitting below $20 a share, but its market cap, $14.15 billion. Again, that's down from where it was just months ago. Wow. I was thinking, actually, if anything, Matt and I were too high. There was a chance it was a microcap. I assume this is obviously way pretty profitable.

as a business. But obviously, there's a ton of promise behind their solution. That's right. Keytruda is a huge blockbuster drug. This company is already at phase three. Seems promising. Again, Akaso is their Chinese partner.

The Chinese don't necessarily conduct the same trials the same ways that we do, so we can't necessarily feel trust one-to-one that they're doing what we would do. That's part of the interest in this company. But I also, before we move on to stock No. 7, I was interested to see who the CEO of this company is. In fact, the co-CEO, because

His name is Bob Duggan. Bob Duggan was one of the geniuses who, early days, started what is today Intuitive Surgical.

It was, I think, Computer Motion was the company. There was a lot of legal wrangling around a couple of companies that were competing for surgical robot patents. But Bob Duggan was right there. And I met his wife, Trish, who came to visit us once at Motley Fool headquarters. I went out to lunch with her, had a lovely time with her. So, I see some pedigree here where I believe in the Duggans.

It's a really interesting company. I didn't know a thing about it until we just talked about it on this show. But Summit Therapeutics, stock No. 6. Matt, give yourself a point. Andy, for Matt, too. We move on to stock No. 7. Now, Andy, you knew something that Matt didn't know about the company I just asked Matt about. I think turnabout may be fair play here. We'll see. Andy, what if I gave you the opportunity today to buy the stock of a company

aspiring to be the most innovative branchless bank in the United States. Would you make room in your portfolio? 100%. Let me change the question. What if the year were 2012?

you could go back in time and buy that most innovative branchless bank in the U.S. on November 21st, 2012. Would you want that cost basis or not? I think I'll take that cost basis, sure. What if I told you that your opponent today was the very Motley Fool analyst who wrote up this recommendation for Rule Breaker members on November 21st, 2012,

And then again, six months later, by the way, adding up in May of 2013. Andy, would you be slightly worried that you might not get a point here for stock No. 7, because Matt killed it with Axos Financial, ticker symbol AX. I'm just glad that we hired that young analyst to make such a recommendation. I am, too, and I'm glad that I took his recommendation. In fact, we then added...

A few years later, I think Matt had moved on from our Rule Breakers team, but I added it one more time in 2016. It's been a really interesting company. We'll talk more about it in a sec. But more importantly, Andy Cross, what is your stated market cap range for Axos Financial, ticker symbol AX? Boy, it's done so well. However, I still think it's a mid-cap range. So, I'm going to say C.

$7 billion to $10 billion in market cap. $7 billion to $10 billion. Players at home, Matt Argersinger. Matt, do you find yourself right now leaning toward the agree? You don't have to commit yet. Or leaning toward the disagree? Leaning. I'm leaning towards agree because it was a very small cap, I think. It was actually called Bank of Internet, I think, at the time. That is correct. But I know it's done...

really well since. Was the ticker symbol B-O-F-I? It was. Bank of Internet Holdings, B of I Holdings became the company name for a while. They've changed it a few times since. They've also been somewhat acquisitive. Matt, Andy said $7 billion to $10 billion. Forget about the leaning now. Do you want to agree or disagree? That range feels so right, but for some reason, I think it's still a little smaller than $7 billion. So, I'm going to disagree.

You are correct to disagree. This company, which by the way has been a fantastic investment, is still quite small. In fact, the market cap of Axios Financial is just $3.71 billion. Let's go back and review here. Matt, you picked it at $6.52 in November of 2012. So today, stock's up 914%. It's a 10-bagger. So congratulations. It's doubled up the market's return. The market has been a 5-bagger actually since 2012. It's been a great 13 years. But fantastic

Fantastic. And then you added it six months later, it had gone from 6.5% to 9.81%. Matt, that one is up 574% for Rule Breaker members. And then I just flipped it out there again in April of 2016 at $19.43. That one's up 240%, still beating the market just by a few points. One of my habits that I've tried to learn, to teach, and to embody over the years is to add up.

don't double down. In fact, in my experience, many of the worst mistakes made, especially by novice investors, are when a stock starts going against them, and they put in maybe too much in the first place, and then they feel like they need to add more as it goes down. And that way, friends can lie. Madness, it usually doesn't all turn around for you. In fact, I think we do much better if we do what Matt did with BFI Holdings at the time, now Axios Financial, and add as a company, a great company, is going up.

over time. I agree. And you know, I just remembered that I went out there, I think in 2013 to San Diego. So Greg Garabrant, he still is today. He is. And we interviewed him, I believe it was 2013. And that was a great day. We learned a lot more about the company. And I think that was the impetus or happened right around the time we re-recommended it. I think they only had one branch. They had to have one branch and they had one branch in California. One physical branch at the building where we were. We saw it. I think it's Las Vegas, isn't it? Or that's where it is now. Right.

They might have moved. I'm pretty sure at the time it was San Diego. Maybe Los Angeles, but I think San Diego. He joked that no one really comes into that branch, but they have it there. Occasionally, once in a blue moon, a customer would walk in to do some business. Well, he did not found the company, Bank of Internet, but he did become its CEO in 2007, and he still is in 2025. It's been a market-beater.

And, Matt, it's brought you a little closer to Andy. This is heating up, guys. Andy for Matt3. I've got life. A little closer right there. Let's move on to stock number eight. Andy, when you think of stocks that either you personally or we, I would say corporately, just did not figure out. Think of a stock that we loved. We loved when it was high, too high. And we recommended it up there. And we kept recommending it up there. And then it crashed.

And then we even start issuing some sell orders recently as it starts perhaps to recover a little. When you think of a stock that we at The Motley Fool just have gotten really, really wrong. Well-known consumer brand, dozens of buy recommendations, mine among them, pretty much all underwater. Any stock come to mind?

Well, the one that I've been looking at that has underperformed recently is Sam Adams Boston Beer. But David, I don't know of another one top of head that would come to mind. I saw 41 recommendations on this stock at our company. Now, that includes some sells as well.

But let me be very clear, we talk about our losers at The Motley Fool. That is something that Tom and I did from our earliest days. We don't try to sweep bad decisions under the carpet. The best way to learn is to acknowledge. And I would say The Motley Fool should never have come across, it's been an unmitigated disaster, Roku. Ticker symbol R-O-K-U. I'm actually turning back to you, Matt. This is your stock.

What is your market cap range for Roku, ticker symbol ROKU? Boy, I should know this since we've recommended it so many times, buy or sell. And you've said it's been an unmitigated disaster, which makes me think the market cap has probably fallen quite a bit. I'm going to say between $8 billion to $12 billion. $8 billion to $12 billion. Matt Argersinger calling out Roku. Do you have a Roku, Matt? I don't. Andy? I just bought one. Nice. I've got a couple.

I heard they're great, right? I just bought a little streaming stick for $50 off of Amazon. I like it, but I will also say, and I know I'm not the only big video game fan here at the table, Matt Argersinger, but I've always found I could just access the channels off my PlayStation or off my Xbox, just download the apps I don't really know that I need, even though I have a couple of them.

Oroku, that's been some of the value question that we've had about this company. What really is their value prop? How sustainably, competitively advantaged is it or not?

I mean, $8 billion to $12 billion, which is what Matt just estimated. I mean, clearly some value has been created if Matt's right. Andy, by the way, is Matt right? $8 billion to $12 billion. Players at home, Andy Cross, do you want to agree or disagree? You know when you look back at the games when you replay them and you say, that was a key play. That was a key moment in the game. I feel like this is that time. I mean, it's 4-3. If you were to win this, you'd be up 5-3. You possibly are cruising to victory if you don't.

We're tied with two left. The pressure. It's building. Matt, I think you are right in the right zone, but I actually think you're not exactly right. So I'm going to disagree with the $8 to $12 billion call. All right. Players at home, what did you do?

Alright, you said it. If you agreed, give yourself a point. Because $11.92 billion is Roku's market cap just inside the high end of Matt's range. $12.11 billion. Alright. I thought...

Andy was thinking it was lower. I thought it actually could be lower than the $8 billion to $12 billion. But, no, it's still on the high end. So, it's still a decently mid-cap company. I was thinking the teens. So, I was thinking it was a little bit... Because they are the leader in providing smart TVs out there. But I think at one point, it had to be. It was over $20 billion. Sure. I mean, this one has been up and down big time. In fact, the first...

person to pick this stock was me. Again, I kind of regret that I got us interested in this company. But the stock, it was in March of 2019. It was at $61 today. It's at $78. So, that's up. The problem is that many different Fool services piled into the stock at $300-plus.

So, with it now at $91 a few years later, this has been a horrific pick. Those same services, by the way, are often now selling Roku below $100. So, we just have never understood this stock. I hold myself out first there, Andy. That COVID bump created a whole bunch of whipsaw in the market. Well, it sure did, and they haven't quite gotten the

necessarily the full advertising model down. But David, like you said, there are some green shoots showing up with Roku. So, I think the potential for better days ahead are still there. It's a $12 billion-ish market cap company. This is a brand everybody knows

That COVID bump sent it over $450 briefly. So, for it to be down now just below $80, it's been a hard row to hoe for Roku. Let's move on, guys, because by my count, it's now Matt 4, Andy 4. I'm going to turn back to Andy for stock No. 9. Andy, I asked ChatGPT to explain this company's core business to a 10-year-old.

Here's what it came up with, and I'm wondering after I share it if you can guess the company, which is stock number nine. You ready? I'm ready. Imagine a big playground filled with all kinds of kids playing different games at the same time. Now imagine there's someone whose job is to watch carefully and make sure everyone's safe, happy, having fun. They notice that if someone falls, if the swings break or if there's a problem on the slide, and they quickly tell a grown-up to help fix it.

This company does the same kind of thing, but for businesses. It helps other businesses keep track of their computers, apps, and websites, making sure everything runs smoothly. Again, this is all to a 10-year-old. If something breaks or slows down,

They quickly let the right people know so they can fix it before anyone else even notices. That is chat GPT to a 10-year-old. Andy, do you want to take a guess at that? I mean, it's not that easy to guess. Let's be clear. I wouldn't get it. Obviously, some technology company or consultant, so I'll say Accenture. A brave guess. Not quite. So, let's dial it down to a 5-year-old. Here you go. This is now to a 5-year-old.

Imagine your school has a special helper who watches all the classrooms, making sure everything works right, like the lights, the toys, and the computers. If something breaks, the helper quickly tells the teachers so they can fix it fast. This company does that same thing, but for other companies, helping them watch their computers and websites, always making sure nothing breaks. Oh, and this special helper has a funny name. It sounds a bit like...

Your favorite pet. David, favorite pet? So...

I mean, the good news is, this isn't even the quiz show. We're just having fun getting into what stock No. 9 is. By the way, apparently five-year-olds on Jatchi BT are far smarter than I am, which is not too surprising. So, I'm stumped, David. I'm stumped. The company name is Datadog. The ticker symbol is D-D-O-G. Speaking of OG, Matt Argersinger, Andy, I'm turning to you now. The game is tied 4-4.

I know you know this company now. The clues I gave were really not that helpful. It really could have applied to a lot of industries. So, chin up over there, Andy Cross. In fact, I need to get you mentally prepared to win right now. Don't be down that you couldn't get the five-year-old's explanation of Datadog. If we had timeouts in the Murricap game show, I would need a timeout here just to recover from that embarrassing performance around that chat GPT example.

But unfortunately, we don't have a budget for timeouts on this show, so we're going to have to proceed forward. Andy Cross, what is your stated market cap range for Datadog? David, I will say it's a large company, so $32 billion to $39 billion. $32 billion to $39 billion. Andy, is this a stock you own? This is a stock I own. Nice.

Matt, is this a stock you own? It is not a stock I own. It's not a company I've looked at. It's not a company I own. This company does not pay a dividend. I know. It's completely off my radar now. Matt, I'm not saying it's all about dividends for you, but you are our dividend advisor. We've got some great companies in that service, Matt. But I would say a real minority of stocks this week pay dividends. Datadog, not one of them as well. That's right.

So, not one you've looked at. Andy said $32 billion to $39 billion. The guy owns the stock. Have to factor that in. But it doesn't mean he knows the market cap at market close. By the way, we took all of our prices at about $315 today, Tuesday, March 4th. It was a volatile day on the markets, guys. So, your excuse for not quite knowing the market caps up to the minute, because it was up and down over the course of Tuesday, March 4th.

Players at home, Matt Argersinger, do you want to agree with Andy's $32-39 billion, or do you want to disagree? I am going to disagree, David, just because there's a dog barking that tells me it's below, maybe slightly below Andy's range. You were right to disagree, and yet Andy made such a good call. DataDog's market cap is $39.63 billion.

Less than a billion over the top of his range, but you said you disagreed. Arguably, you may have said it for the wrong reasons, and yet, Matt, part of the beauty of the Market Cap Game Show, you guys know you've played this game a lot, is you can slink away with a plus one sometimes. I did. I slinked away with this one. Sorry, Andy. No, no apologies at all. I mean, I had remembered recently it was north of the $30 billion range, but I just didn't know...

how much farther north it is. You look at these one week to the next, and they just change. You should get extra credit just for the accuracy of that range. It was a heck of a good call, and yet it was .63 billion too low. So, players at home, if you said disagree, give yourself a plus one. By my counting, Matt has just scored four points in a row. It's now Argersinger 5, cross one.

4 as we move to stock No. 10. Now, guys, if you tie, I have a tiebreaker. We're all set. Players at home, you might have even more than 5 for all we know. And if that's true, you're awesome, and you should definitely put that out on social media, because these guys are really good at this game, as we just saw with Datadog. Let's move on to stock No. 10. I turn to you, Matt. You're up 5-4. Matt, when companies have fun ticker symbols,

especially when they're trying to key into signaling a big trend. What do you make of that? I kind of like it. I think sometimes companies get a little too cute, but I like when it's representative and it's fun. It kind of gives you a positive impression of the company. Can you think of any companies off the top of your head that have selected sort of a fun ticker symbol?

No, but Andy mentioned Boston Beer before, and I've always loved that ticker symbol, SAM, S-A-M, for Samuel Adams. I don't think that's what you're going for there, David, but that's one that comes to mind. It's not, and that was a great pick that you brought to Motley Fool Stock Advisor. Thank you for it, Matt.

It doesn't always go well when companies try to pull the ticker symbol that makes them at the forefront, the vanguard of the new technology. Thinking about 3D printing here, guys. This is not stock No. 10, but DDD, 3D, 3D Systems. It was a flash-in-the-pan 10-bagger for us briefly, and I think we sold below cost. Cute ticker symbols can cut

both ways. Matt, do you spend much time thinking about or researching the internet of things? Not these days. Back in my Rule Breakers days, I think I spent some time there, but not these days. You're not losing a step, are you? I might be.

I mean, are you falling too much in love with dividend stocks? You're not following the Internet of Things? I know. I'm getting used to cashing those checks every quarter, and I love it. I understand. It's a little bit less stressful than following companies like Samsara, ticker symbol IOT. Company name has nothing to do with IOT. Of course, IOT speaking to the Internet of Things. This company's sort of branding itself with that ticker symbol when it came public some years ago.

This is stock No. 10. Matt Argersinger, you are up 5-4. I'm turning to you for your market cap range for Samsara, ticker symbol IOT. Wow. Again, not one I'm taking a look at. I'm going to say my market cap guess is between $12 billion and $14 billion. $12 billion to $14 billion. Andy, I see your brow is knitted.

I mean, the gamesmanship going on with my competitor over here. You know, I've not looked at it, but I do a close range in the teens. Like, I can feel it. I understand. And admittedly, there is a lot of pressure right now on our defending world champion. I don't want to overhype this, but if you make the call here, we go to a tiebreaker. Impeding in my elementary school wrestling finals was tough. I mean, that is nothing on this team.

I am going to disagree with Matt's range. Andy disagreed. Players at home, what do you think? Agree with Matt or disagree? And if you disagreed with Matt, give yourself a plus one, because Samsara is substantially bigger than $12 billion to $14 billion. It's $25.28 billion, $25.25 billion market cap for this company that Motley Fool Trends

first got at $16 a share in spring of 2023. And I'm happy to say our Rule Breakers team added it $10 higher

That same summer, just a few months later, but given the stock's now over $40, it has been an excellent couple of years for Foolish investors in IOT. Andy, do you spend some time looking at Samsara? No, I don't. I remember it had done well, then it struggled a little bit, and then it rebounded, but I did not realize that it rebounded that high.

I'll just say Andy knows me well because I put on an air of confidence with my market cap range there. I had no idea. To me, that was pretty tight. 12 to 14. If I'm a player at home, I'm thinking probably it's outside that range. 12 to 14 felt tight. Yeah, and it burned me with the Datadog call because I knew it was somewhere in there, but I was too smart. By the way, do you know what Datadog's logo, what their mascot is named? I do not know what the name is. It's a cute little dog. Well, I know it's a little dog. It's named Bits. Oh.

Oh, that's cute. There you go. That's cute. It's right up there with Duolingo's Duo. It's true. You know, there should be a for-profit battle of the mascots. I mean, college football makes so much of this on ESPN. They're always playing with mascots. We've got it out there in the stock market. A lot of companies have logos. I mean, I would like to see the Geico take on Bits, personally. Yeah, I still don't understand the University of North Carolina's mascot. Yeah, I know. We're supposed to be Tar Heels, but then we have this Ram. Ram, I don't get it. Yeah.

I got two words for you, Andy. Bill Belichick. All right, let's keep moving because we have hit the rare tiebreaker. Now,

Longtime aficionados of this game will remember that Andy won the World Championship in a tiebreaker with Bill Mann. It was unforgettable. I still remember it. Andy, here you find yourself again, 5-5 as we hit an 11th in final stock. I don't have the nerves for this anymore, David. I have no more fingernails.

All right. For our 11th tiebreaker stock, to me, it's time for a throwdown. This is the only way this Game 1, Round 1 of March Market Cap Madness should end. Matt and Andy, get your pencils out. We're not going to beat around the bush with this one. This is a company whose ticker symbol is recognizable for the product, the service that they offer. This is a stock that

that has only ever been once recommended across Motley Fool services history crazily, I randomized this, it was my pick, February of 2018, Fair Isaac Corp, the ticker symbol,

F-I-C-O. And if you've ever heard about FICO Scores, you now know that this is one of those cute ticker symbol companies, although FICO really just comes from Fair Isaac, the company behind FICO Scores, the credit scores that many are familiar with measuring consumer credit risk. Fair Isaac Corporation, by the way, was founded in 1956. Its headquarters is in Bozeman, Montana, and it's only ever been picked once

for Motley Fool Services. It was Stock Advisor in 2018. And I see Matt and Andy furiously thinking, what is their tightest, best market cap range for Fair Isaac? And whoever makes the better call will advance two weeks from today to our world championships.

Matt, you made a raging comeback. You were down 4-1, and you scored four points in a row and took the lead 5-4. I'm going to turn to you first. What is your stated market cap range for Fair Isaac? Now that I look at the number, I think it's low. You can change it. You can change it. No, I'm going to stick with it. That's usually the right thing to do. Go with your gut. Stick with your first answer. So, my range for FICO...

$15 to $19 billion. $15 billion to $19 billion. Andy Cross, do you ever go out for your credit score? Do you subscribe to these things? Are you...

I do not, except when I bought my house or renovated the house. So, not really. I don't really use the -- but I've just been so impressed with how well that business and that stock has performed. This is a company where -- this is not getting your credit rating like you get personally subscribed to one or more services. This is what lenders use.

They're purchasing billions of FICO scores over the course of decades. This is a company, I will say, this has been a winning stock. We'll talk about that in a sec, but let's talk more about winning the game itself. Andy, Matt said $15 billion to $19 billion. What is your stated market cap range for Fair Isaac? I am going larger, Matt, and I'm going between $42 billion and $50 billion. Oh, wow. Okay.

And he said that with extreme confidence. Players at home, you're allowed to listen in to Matt's coaching. Matt thinks Andy might have a better beat on this one. I'm going to give you three seconds to call out either Matt or Andy. Players at home, three, two, one. You said it. And if you said Andy, give yourself a plus one. I declare this game over six to five. Fair Isaac corpse. Market cap.

Inside Andy's range, really well done. $46.70 billion. Nice, Andy. Andy, have you ever looked at Fair Isaac? Well, it's a little bit unfair, David, because literally just today...

On the morning show, we had mentioned Fair Isaac, and I just said, "Hey, how's that stock done?" And I happened to see it, completely coincidental. So, I did have a pretty good, confident guess there, Matt. You know, this game rewards many things, but one of the things it rewards is just growing your circle of competence, extending that perimeter, trying to learn as much as you can about the world.

I don't think I would have made as good a guess as you did, Andy, but $42-50, it was basically almost right in the middle, $46.70 billion. By the way, if I may brag at the end of the podcast, picked the stock at $166.48 back in February 2018. Today, it's over $1,850. It's been an 11-bagger

for Motley Fool members. It really hasn't gotten a lot of interest across our services. And I'm pretty sure when I picked this in February 2018, it wasn't the most exciting new pick that I made that year. I don't think I would have understood how much this company would grow over the course of time. But this has been a compounding machine

And it's a company that we all kind of recognize once you hear that ticker symbol. Yeah, and such a great reminder to buy into strength, David, as you were talking about earlier on the show. And Matt, you were saying the same thing. It's just because it has been just a great business to buy into. Well, I think that truly lived up to our March market cap madness brand. You both acquitted yourselves so well. How about a last line from you each year? Matt Argersinger? David, so great to be back on the show.

I've been doing this for eight years now, we said? Yeah. And to go down in defeat to Andy Cross, it's an honor. It always will be. You made an incredible comeback, and that was very inspiring. Thank you, Matt Argersinger. We might see you next year. Andy, a last line from you. We'll be seeing you in two weeks. Well, I was very happy to...

get the victory, but it was a truly epic showdown and just such a great battle and such a great competitor. Matt, I've known you for so long. And it's just great to take it all the way down to the overtime last second shot to take the victory. Well, there you have it. From Endava, where we started, to Fair Isaac Corp, where we finished. Thank you both. The final accounting is then this. Andy Cross, 6. Matt Argersinger, 5.

But Andy and Matt and I know that we're not playing this game for each other. We're playing it for you. How did you score, dear fool? Dear listener at home, we hope you outscored all of us. The purpose of the Market Cap Game Show is to make more popular, I'm never going to say as popular as Jeopardy!, but to make more popular market caps, the real value of stocks on the market that most people don't understand.

Except that you do understand because you just listened to us for an hour. And I hope you scored at least a few points this week and maybe beat one or both of our competitors. Andy and Matt, thank you both for helping make the world smarter, happier, and richer. And Andy Cross, we will see you in two weeks for the World Championship. Next week, coming up, Bill Barker and Emily Flippen to see who meets Andy in two weeks. In the meantime, stay mad out there. Fool on. ♪

As always, people on this program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. Learn more about Rule Breaker Investing at rbi.fool.com.