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cover of episode Crossfire hurricane ahead of US jobs report

Crossfire hurricane ahead of US jobs report

2025/6/5
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Saxo Market Call
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John J. Hardy
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John J. Hardy: 昨天公布的美国ISM服务业数据和ADP就业数据均表现疲软，引发了市场对美国经济的担忧。ISM服务业指数低于预期，新订单大幅下降，而ADP就业人数远低于预期，为2022年以来的最差水平。这些数据导致美国国债大幅上涨，收益率曲线走低。目前市场对坏消息的解读存在分歧，一种观点认为坏消息意味着美联储可能降息，利好市场；另一种观点则认为坏消息预示着经济衰退，将对企业盈利产生负面影响。我个人认为，美元汇率交易非常不稳定，走势难以预测。中期来看，我看跌美元，但需要美国国债收益率下降和风险情绪疲软。目前市场存在许多矛盾信号，美国国债市场的强势可能表明人们对购买国债的意愿增强。

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Chapters
This chapter analyzes the recent weak US economic data, including the ISM services number and ADP private payrolls, and their impact on the US Treasury market and the dollar. The discussion also explores the market's uncertain reaction to this bad news, with questions about whether it signals a Fed rate cut or a recession.
  • Weak ISM services number (49.9 vs. 52 expected)
  • ADP private payrolls at only +37k
  • Strong Treasury rally, yield curve dumping lower
  • Dollar weakness, choppy trading
  • Uncertainty in market reaction to weak data: Fed rate cut or recession?

Shownotes Transcript

Today, we discuss yesterday's weak US numbers cratering the US dollar, if once again not decisively, and boosting US treasuries. Equities provided little inspiration and it feels like the market is at a loss with what to do here with a crossfire of three massive issues possibly pulling things in very different directions. Today's podcast hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

 

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