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cover of episode After Monumental Rally, Market Braces For CPI

After Monumental Rally, Market Braces For CPI

2025/4/10
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Schwab Market Update Audio

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Kathy Jones
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Keith Lansford
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Keith Lansford: 昨日特朗普宣布将对除中国以外所有国家的报复性关税推迟90天,导致股市出现16年来最大单日涨幅。然而,股票价格仍低于近期历史高点10%,贸易战远未结束。市场对即将公布的3月份消费者物价指数(CPI)数据兴趣不大,因为投资者更关注贸易紧张局势。分析师预计CPI将温和上涨,但10年期国债收益率的急剧上升表明投资者可能不太愿意购买美国国债,这可能反映了对通胀的担忧、对流动性的需求以及在不确定性中转向现金的投资者。关税相关的通胀担忧以及收益率持续上升可能引发的信贷市场问题,是美联储在5月份会议上需要考虑的因素。达美航空的业绩好于预期,但其展望显示经济不确定性导致增长停滞,主要客舱预订量和公司差旅需求疲软。大型银行的业绩报告将提供对经济反应和高管想法的更多信息,可能出现基于关税而降低增长预期或削减股息的情况。银行可能增加贷款损失准备金,因为对信贷的担忧加剧。VIX指数回落,但仍表明股市可能出现剧烈波动,债市波动性也很高。 Kathy Jones: 美联储正在观望,除非出现失业率上升或就业增长严重放缓的情况,否则不会采取紧急行动降息。即使美联储降低短期利率,长期债券收益率也不一定会下降,这取决于经济和通胀预期。

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Yesterday's historic rally after Trump delayed tariffs precedes CPI data today. Analysts expect mild increases, but focus may still be on yields after tremors in that market.

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