Alphabet Earnings, Sentiment, Trade, Wrap Up Week
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Welcome to the Schwab Market Update podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Colette O'Clare, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Friday, April 25th. For investors, today and Monday offer a break from the furious roar of corporate earnings, with few major firms reporting until next Tuesday.

In the absence of company reports, today's U.S. final April consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan could help direct traffic on Wall Street, and investors continue to digest results late yesterday from Alphabet. Meanwhile, the market is on a three-day win streak after yesterday's tech-driven rally, despite lack of noticeable progress on the trade front.

Recent consumer sentiment data have been dismal, and analysts don't expect today's 10 a.m. ET final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report to improve. In fact, it's seen worsening to a headline of 48.5 from 50.8, with inflation expectations also in focus after spiking the last two months.

This report, once a backwater for Wall Street, made headlines a month ago and helped send stocks down the day it came out. Still, sentiment is what analysts call soft data, and they need to see hard data like employment and retail sales fall to confirm the gloom. With consumers, I always say, watch what they do and not what they say, said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab.

Alphabet climbed in after-hours trading as earnings per share of $2.81 easily beat the $2.01 consensus from FactSet, and revenue topped consensus by $1 billion. Google Cloud revenue rose 28%, down sequentially from 30%, and YouTube ads rose double digits.

On the flip side, Intel lost ground after the close as its guidance disappointed despite beating first quarter revenue and earnings estimates. It's unclear how much this will mean for the chip sector today, being that Intel isn't seen as an AI leader.

Yesterday's tech sector rally followed strong results from Texas Instruments. A slight dip in Treasury yields might also have helped growth sectors like tech, industrials, and communication services. And there was evidence of short covering, according to Briefing.com.

Volume, however, was well below average, raising questions about how much conviction was behind the gains. And while Magnificent's seven stocks rose yesterday, their gains trailed those of tech names like Palantir and Supermicrocomputer.

Yields dropped Thursday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd support rate cuts if tariffs hurt the jobs market. Another Fed speaker, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, said the Fed could move on rates as soon as June, Bloomberg reported. Chances of a May rate cut fell to 2 percent late Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. As investors appear convinced, recent cautious Fed talk means little chance of a trim.

June rate cut odds are now near 62 percent, a little lower than a week ago. Ultimately, the Fed is in a tough position as high prices from tariffs support the case for higher rates. But potential weakness in the labor market supports the case for lower rates, said Colin Martin, director of fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Fed Chair Powell has generally pushed back on the idea of premature easing since inflation is still a problem. But some officials have suggested that they would favor rate cuts if the labor market did in fact deteriorate. We expect the Fed to cut rates this year, but not until the second half.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note finished Thursday down 7 basis points to 4.31 percent, despite a $44 billion 7-year Treasury auction that saw soft demand, according to Briefing.com. That followed a weak 2-year auction on Wednesday. Treasury yields fell across all parts of the curve,

possibly reacting to relatively soft recent U.S. economic data and an earnings season that hasn't impressed yet in terms of revenue growth. Though many firms delivered earnings per share and revenue that exceeded Wall Street's first quarter expectations late this week, outlooks weren't overly sunny.

Some companies citing economic uncertainty yesterday included Procter & Gamble, IBM, Chipotle, Merck, Southwest, and American Airlines. Airlines are cutting their capacity for later this year amid worries about demand, and Merck said tariffs will lead to incremental costs of around $200 million.

One interesting nugget came in IBM's call when the company said frugal clients are turning to the cloud and AI for help in cost-cutting. Though IBM is only one company, it'll be interesting to see if other cloud firms reporting over the next week, including Microsoft and Amazon, saw similar trends. If so, it could be positive for some of the big chip firms. AI proponents have long claimed it could lift profitability.

"Technology has been key to the bull's thesis, not just from an earnings growth contribution perspective, but also from a sentiment perspective," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. After some relatively lukewarm earnings reports from the likes of ASML, Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, and Cadence Design Systems, the onus is on mega-cap tech to validate current multiples.

In data yesterday, March U.S. durable goods orders soared 9.2% month-over-month compared with consensus for 1.5%. However, with transportation excluded, growth was flat and lower than the 0.3% Briefing.com consensus.

Some of the buying may have reflected pull-forward demand as businesses tried to get ahead of tariffs. Following a recent spike, the number of container ships departing China for the U.S. has declined sharply, according to Bloomberg data.

Existing home sales for March hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, down from 4.27 million the prior month and below the consensus of 4.2 million. The number of sales fell 5.9% month over month and 2.4% year over year, while prices rose 2.7% from a year earlier. This reinforces the theme of falling supplies driving higher prices and hurting affordability.

Technically, the S&P 500 index made a strong close yesterday above 5,480 for the first time since the tariff liberation day. Resistance at 5,500 is just above current levels.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 486.83 points, or 1.23%, to 40,093.40. The S&P 500 Index climbed 108.91 points, or 2.03%, to 5,484.77. And the Nasdaq Composite rose 457.99 points, or 2.74%, to 17,183.

66.04. This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit schwab.com slash market update or follow for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update Monday.

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