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cover of episode As Tariffs Arrive, Stocks and Yields Play Defense

As Tariffs Arrive, Stocks and Yields Play Defense

2025/3/4
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Schwab Market Update Audio
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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A
Alberto Musalem
K
Kevin Gordon
空
M
Michelle Gibley
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Michelle Gibley: 我认为即使关税生效，它们也可能是谈判的工具。长期来看，对美国和其他国家来说都是双输的局面。特朗普前后不一致的言论也暗示着，这些关税可能不会长期存在。 关税对市场的影响是多方面的，它不仅会影响到直接受影响的行业，还会通过供应链和消费者信心等间接途径影响到其他行业。 我们需要密切关注关税的长期影响，以及它对全球经济增长的影响。 Kevin Gordon: 亚特兰大联储GDP Now指标下降至负值，这反映了净出口疲软，这可能是因为消费者提前购买以应对更高的关税。 这表明消费者对未来经济的预期并不乐观，他们可能正在减少支出，这将进一步影响到经济增长。 我们需要密切关注即将发布的官方GDP数据，以及其他经济指标，以便更好地了解经济的真实状况。 Alberto Musalem: 重要的是要控制通胀预期。我的基本预期是通胀将继续下降，劳动力市场将保持接近充分就业的状态。 当前的经济形势复杂，既有增长放缓的风险，也有通胀持续存在的风险。 美联储需要在控制通胀和支持经济增长之间取得平衡，这需要谨慎的货币政策。 Keith Lansford: 关税对市场的影响是显而易见的，风险偏好转向规避，国债收益率上涨反映了市场对经济增长放缓的预期。 科技行业受到的打击尤其严重，尤其是芯片股，因为它们可能面临更高的运营成本和产品成本。 与中国的贸易战可能会损害包括汽车、手机和农业产品在内的多个行业。波动性上升，投资者越来越看跌，市场对美联储暂停加息的预期很高，但对6月份降息的可能性也超过80%。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The confirmation of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China caused a sell-off in stocks and a rally in Treasury yields. The tech sector was hit particularly hard, with Nvidia's stock plunging. This risk-off sentiment was also reflected in the performance of other stocks and Bitcoin.
  • 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, 10% on Chinese goods
  • Tech sector took the hardest blow; Nvidia plunged over 8%
  • Risk-on sentiment shifted to risk-off, Treasuries rallied
  • Agricultural stocks (Deere, ADM) also suffered due to China's role as a major buyer of US agricultural products
  • Bitcoin erased most of its gains after initial surge

Shownotes Transcript

President Trump's confirmation late Monday of tariffs against imports from Canada, Mexico, and China have markets on defense after yesterday's sell-off. Tech took the worst blow.

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