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cover of episode Bank Earnings, PPI Awaited After Another Sell-off

Bank Earnings, PPI Awaited After Another Sell-off

2025/4/11
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Schwab Market Update Audio
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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K
Kathy Jones
K
Keith Lansford
L
Lizanne Saunders
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Keith Lansford: 本周市场经历了剧烈波动，周四出现大幅下跌，抹去了之前大部分涨幅。周五市场关注的焦点将是几家主要银行的收益报告、生产者物价指数（PPI）以及消费者信心指数。关税问题仍然是市场的主要担忧。 三月消费者物价指数（CPI）显示通胀相对温和，但市场关注点仍然集中在与中国之间的贸易战上。即将公布的三月生产者物价指数（PPI）预计整体PPI持平，核心PPI下降0.1%。 四月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初步报告也即将公布，可能比以往更受关注，因为最近的数据显示经济增长放缓和通胀上升的可能性。三月消费者信心指数最终读数降至57.0，分析师预计今日的数据将显示54.8。投资者将密切关注该报告的内部运作，尤其是对未来一年通胀的预期。 尽管各行业第一季度业绩可能强劲，但鉴于最近的贸易发展，投资者更关注经济数据以及经济衰退的担忧。 银行股下跌并非因为关税直接影响银行，而是因为关税可能对银行客户和经济增长造成影响。投资者可能想知道行业高管对90天延迟和持续对华征收高额关税对经济的最新看法，以及银行可能需要拨备多少资金以应对经济恶化和企业无法偿还贷款的情况。 美国国债市场震荡，表明投资者可能不太愿意购买美国国债，这可能也反映了与关税相关的通胀担忧、对流动性的需求以及投资者在不确定性中转向现金。尽管经济增长放缓，但10年期国债收益率周四晚些时候达到4.40%，高于一周前的4%左右，这加剧了人们对国债市场健康状况的担忧。 周三10年期国债拍卖和周四30年期国债拍卖的需求良好，以及周四温和的3月消费者物价指数，略微缓解了市场紧张情绪；美联储5月份降息的概率为27%，6月份降息的概率为84%。与关税相关的通胀担忧以及如果收益率持续飙升可能出现的信贷市场问题，可能是美联储在5月份会议上避免降息的两个原因。美联储可能不愿放松政策，因为这让人想起2022-23年通胀飙升时央行反应迟缓的情况。 周四，原油价格走弱导致能源板块下跌6%，为标普500指数中表现最差的板块；投资者还逃离了通信服务、非必需消费品和信息技术板块。旅行类股票大幅下跌，服装公司、半导体公司和特斯拉等股票也出现下跌。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1014.79点，标普500指数下跌188.85点，纳斯达克综合指数下跌737.66点。 Lizanne Saunders: 我认为公司不会提供很多关于前景的具体信息，消费数据和劳动力市场数据尤其重要，因为消费支出占GDP的68%。 Kathy Jones: 对于那些等待美联储降息的人来说，这需要更多的时间和数据，即使美联储降息，债券收益率也可能上升。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This week's market experienced a significant shift from Wednesday's rally to Thursday's sell-off. The main factors are escalating tariff concerns, the upcoming release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), and the mixed signals from recent inflation data. Consumer sentiment is also a key point of concern.
  • Wednesday's rally reversed into Thursday's sharp losses
  • Tariffs on Chinese goods are higher than initially announced
  • March PPI is expected to show a flat headline and a decline in core PPI
  • March CPI showed relatively mild inflation
  • April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report is expected to show a decline
  • Inflation expectations have risen to their highest since November 2022

Shownotes Transcript

Wednesday's rally turned into Thursday's rout, erasing much of the historic gains. Today features several major bank earnings reports, producer prices, and consumer sentiment.

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