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cover of episode Fed Meeting, Treasury Auctions Dominate Week

Fed Meeting, Treasury Auctions Dominate Week

2025/5/5
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Schwab Market Update Audio

AI Deep Dive Transcript
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Colette O'Clare
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Cooper Howard
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Michael Townsend
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Colette O'Clare: 本周市场关注的焦点是即将举行的美联储会议、国债拍卖以及一系列重要的经济数据。虽然美联储预计不会在本周会议上调整利率,但主席鲍威尔的讲话仍将对投资者对利率政策和经济趋势的预期产生重要影响。最新的就业报告显示,4月份新增就业岗位17万,失业率维持在4.2%,这使得6月份降息的可能性降低到40%以下。直到7月份,降息的可能性才超过50%。就业报告显示经济增长正在放缓,但没有出现断崖式下跌,这表明美联储可能更关注对抗通货膨胀。本周美国将进行1250亿美元的国债拍卖,这将对国债收益率和美元汇率产生影响。近期经济数据显示出相互矛盾的信号,例如就业数据好于预期,但第一季度GDP增长却低于预期。关税问题仍然是影响经济的重要因素,任何贸易方面的进展都可能盖过其他新闻。 本周还将公布4月份ISM服务业PMI以及Palantir、福特、高露洁等公司的财报。ISM服务业PMI的物价部分值得关注,因为它最近一直居高不下。财报季最繁忙的部分已经结束,大部分公司业绩好于预期,但主要股指的近期反弹已经提高了股票估值。 上周五,标普500指数连续第九个交易日收高,创下2004年以来的最长纪录。所有标普板块均上涨,通信服务和金融板块涨幅领先。科技板块也表现强劲,受Palantir、Applovin、美光和甲骨文上涨的推动。旅游类股票也表现不错。费城半导体指数上涨超过3%,这得益于大型科技公司对之前为提升人工智能而制定的支出计划的承诺。道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均创下周涨幅。 Cooper Howard: 除非劳动力市场进一步显示放缓迹象,否则市场预测年底前三次或四次降息的预期过于激进。 Michael Townsend: 上周经济报告发出了相互矛盾的信号——就业报告好于预期,而第一季度GDP数据差于预期——这给白宫带来了沟通挑战,因为白宫仍在努力就关税问题进行信息传递。

Deep Dive

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The Fed meets but no rate change is expected, and the U.S. Treasury auctions $125 billion in debt this week. Ford and Palantir report today, and the SPX is up 9 straight days.

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