Mega-Cap Earnings, Jobs Report Highlight Busy Week
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Welcome to the Schwab Market Update podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Monday, April 28th. This week is among the busiest of earnings season, with four magnificent seven firms reporting, but the crescendo comes Friday with the April jobs report.

Apple, MetaPlatforms, Amazon, and Microsoft line up along with more than 100 other S&P 500 firms to deliver results, sharing the spotlight with several other labor market data points peppered throughout the coming days. March job openings tomorrow and April layoffs Thursday are two of the announcements leading up to Friday's non-farm payrolls report, which may be the first to show any major impact from tariff-related concerns in the corporate world.

Government job cuts could also show up in the data. As of late last week, analysts expect jobs growth of 130,000 according to Trading Economics, down from 228,000 in March. The March report, however, came in well above expectations, and it's unclear how quickly the labor market might be slowing. Recent jobless claims data have been relatively light.

Today is thin on data and earnings, but corporate reporting gathers steam as Coca-Cola, Pfizer, Honeywell, and General Motors report Tuesday morning, and Starbucks and Visa after Tuesday's close. Some of these firms face consumers directly and might provide insight on spending patterns after Friday's March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data fell again.

The earnings calendar will get even heavier Wednesday afternoon with Microsoft and Meta Platforms report, followed by Apple and Amazon late Thursday. Stocks had some good days this week, but remained down about 10% from Friday's highs as a brutal month of April concludes. Stocks finished the week higher globally due to a shift in tone from President Trump on tariffs and Fed Chair Powell, said Michelle Gibley, director of international research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Trade negotiations may be underway, and while we could get frameworks for deals that describe the topics to be addressed, these may not come with much in the way of details. This could set up an extension of the 90-day pause past July 9th, keeping a cloud over corporate decision-making.

The Federal Reserve enters its quiet period this week with no speakers ahead of next week's meeting. Futures trading shows less than a 10% chance of a May rate cut, meaning it's likely the Fed will pause for the third straight time. Odds of a June rate cut were 63% as of late Friday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Friday's jobs report may provide more clarity with the Fed keeping a close eye on the labor market.

In other central bank news, the Bank of Japan delivers a rate decision late Wednesday U.S. time. Economists don't expect a policy change, Bloomberg reported, noting that the Bank of Japan may want to wait to see the impact of tariffs and may be more likely to raise rates by later this year. Also, stay tuned for Chinese monthly manufacturing data late tomorrow U.S. time. Analysts expect some of the metrics to fall into contraction below 50.

Back home, most S&P 500 companies are beating analysts' first quarter revenue and profit estimates, but many delivered conservative outlooks. Firms treading cautiously included IBM, Merck, Procter & Gamble, Chipotle, and Southwest. Some say tariffs will raise costs and that prices on store shelves will climb accordingly. Shelves could also empty if companies can't source goods from China.

Others said they expect weaker demand, including airlines that trimmed capacity, and Chipotle already sees a slowdown in consumer spending. Members of Congress have been getting an earful in their home districts over the last couple of weeks from companies and voters upset about the tariffs, so they are eager to have some good news to share on that front, said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab.

Congress is back in session this week and faces a possible showdown over the budget.

So far this quarter, 73% of S&P 500 companies reporting have beaten analysts' earnings per share estimates, and 64% have reported positive revenue surprises, Faxas said Friday. Both are below normal levels. However, because of positive surprises for many companies, analysts now see first quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 10.1%, up from 7.2% at the end of March, Faxas said Friday.

Revenue growth, seen at 4.6%, is up only slightly from 4.4% on March 31st, suggesting companies are cutting costs to improve profit.

In data Friday, the final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment headline reading fell 8.4% to 52.2, slightly above analysts' expectations. It's still down 32.4% from a year ago, and the deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families.

Labor market expectations remain bleak, the survey said, and year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 6.5%, the highest since 1981. Treasuries finished the old week on a strong note, pushing the 10-year yield down four basis points to 4.27% and down six basis points for the week as a whole. That was similar to yield drops up and down the curve.

Relatively soft U.S. data this week, and some dovish comments from several Fed policymakers contributed to strength in treasuries, which move opposite of yields. Stocks posted their fourth straight positive close Friday to round out a week that stumbled out of the starting gate and then caught a tailwind. Consumer discretionary and information technology led Friday's sector scorecard, while defensive sectors like utilities and staples ended lower.

Some of the growth stocks popular with investors during last year's strong market found buyers Friday, including Tesla, Palantir, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Eli Lilly. Alphabet pulled back from big opening gains but still finished higher after a solid earnings report and announcing a large buyback. Intel finished near the low end of the S&P 500 index, falling more than 7% after putting out a conservative forecast.

Tesla soared Friday after the federal government announced a new framework for self-driving cars, Barron's reported. Tesla said it intends to launch a self-driving cab service in Austin, Texas in June and to start producing a cyber-cab robo-taxi in 2026. The rally paused midday Friday when President Trump told reporters that China would have to offer the U.S. something in return for dropping tariffs against its products, Briefing.com noted.

Technically, the S&P 500 broke through intermediate-term resistance at 5,500 on Friday, its first close above that level since Liberation Day on April 2. The 50-day moving average at 5,636 is now a possible resistance point.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 20.10 points Friday, or 0.05%, to 40,113.50. The S&P 500 Index added 40.44 points, or 0.74%, to 5,525.21. And the Nasdaq Composite climbed 216.90 points, or 1.26%, to 17,382.94.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.48%, the S&P 500 rose 4.59%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 6.73%. This has been the Schwab Market Update Podcast.

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