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cover of episode A Farewell to 2024, and What We’re Following in the New Year

A Farewell to 2024, and What We’re Following in the New Year

2024/12/23
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Andrea Thompson
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Ben Guarino
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Tanya Lewis
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Andrea Thompson: 2024年见证了前所未有的极端天气事件,包括创纪录的高温、破坏性飓风和洪水。这些事件与气候变化密切相关,并且在未来将会更加频繁和严重。例如,美国经历了多次严重的飓风,菲律宾在一个月内遭遇了五次台风和一次热带风暴。持续高温也导致了大量人员死亡,例如凤凰城连续113天气温超过100华氏度。这些极端天气事件并非局限于美国,亚洲和非洲也遭受了严重的热浪和洪水。虽然2025年可能由于弱拉尼娜现象而气温略低,但它仍然将是有记录以来最热年份之一。 Tanya Lewis: 2024年在医学领域取得了一些令人瞩目的进展,例如研制出新型非成瘾性止痛药,以及对人体和疾病有了新的认识。然而,一些公共卫生威胁依然存在,例如禽流感(H5N1)病毒在野生鸟类、家禽和奶牛之间的传播,以及科学的政治化。尽管如此,在mRNA疫苗和减肥药物等领域取得的进展,为应对未来的公共卫生挑战提供了希望。 Ben Guarino: 2024年人工智能技术,特别是生成式AI取得了显著进展,其应用范围已扩展到文本、音频和视频生成。然而,这种快速发展也引发了一些担忧,例如对艺术家和作家的影响,以及对能源消耗的增加。生成式AI的应用也带来了“AI垃圾信息”问题。尽管如此,人工智能技术在某些领域也展现出巨大的潜力,例如在考古学和药物研发中的应用。2025年,我们将看到更多关于AI能源消耗和资源需求的讨论,以及更多新型AI代理的出现,这些代理将具有更高的自主性和更强的应用能力。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What were the major weather and climate events of 2024?

2024 saw record-breaking hurricanes, including Hurricane Beryl (the earliest Category 5 on record) and Hurricane Helene, which caused devastation in North Carolina. Heat waves were also severe, with Phoenix experiencing 113 consecutive days of 100°F+ temperatures, breaking the previous record of 76 days. Global temperatures were the hottest on record, surpassing 2023, with all top 10 hottest years occurring in the 21st century.

Why were heat waves and hurricanes more severe in 2024?

Heat waves and hurricanes became more severe due to climate change, which increases their frequency, intensity, and duration. Climate change also contributes to more extreme weather events like floods and storms.

What were some unexpected health discoveries in 2024?

2024 saw the discovery of a non-addictive pain medication that blocks nerve channels before pain reaches the brain. Researchers also found that vitamin D deficiency may not be as problematic as previously thought and that ancient brains preserved for thousands of years may provide insights into neurodegenerative diseases.

What is the outlook for public health in 2025?

Public health in 2025 faces potential threats from bird flu (H5N1) and the politicization of science. However, advancements in mRNA vaccines and weight loss drugs offer hope for tackling major health challenges.

How did AI evolve in 2024?

2024 was a breakthrough year for generative AI, with advancements in creating convincing audio and video. OpenAI's Sora video maker and improvements in AI-generated voice were notable. However, backlash grew over concerns about data usage and potential job displacement.

What are the energy implications of AI in 2025?

AI's energy demands are expected to rise, with concerns about the environmental impact of data centers. Microsoft is exploring reviving a nuclear reactor to power its data centers, highlighting the growing need for sustainable energy solutions.

What new AI trends are expected in 2025?

AI agents are expected to become more prominent, offering more autonomous functionality without requiring constant user prompting. These agents could interact with other apps to perform tasks like booking plane tickets based on user preferences.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

And

Happy Monday, listeners. For Scientific American Science Quickly, I'm Rachel Feltman. We've had a busy and exciting year here at Science Quickly. After a few months of working behind the scenes, I officially started hosting the show back in May. I've had so much fun chatting with you all three times a week since then, and I can't wait for all the conversations we'll get to have in 2025.

Before we here at SQ take a short break for the holidays, I thought it would be fun to ask a few Scientific American editors about the biggest science stories of the year. Let's get into it. I'm Andrea Thompson. I'm the Earth and Environment News Editor at Scientific American.

So the biggest weather and climate stories this year are a lot of what we've seen in recent years. Hurricanes, floods, record heat. Hurricanes were a big story, especially in the U.S. this year. We had several really devastating ones and really surprising ones. Kicking off with Hurricane Beryl, which was the earliest Category 5 on record for the Atlantic Ocean, and it really rapidly intensified. Meteorologists were just sort of left with their mouths hanging open watching this storm develop.

We had two really devastating hurricanes. Incredible hurricane. It has dropped 50 millibars in 10 hours. I apologize. This is just horrific.

Hurricane Milton and then particularly Hurricane Helene, which dropped tons of rain on western North Carolina and wreaked absolute devastation there. But it wasn't just the U.S. that was hit by these storms. The Philippines actually had five typhoons, which are the same type of storm as a hurricane. It's just called a different name in the Pacific than it is in the Atlantic. So they had five typhoons and a tropical storm all within a month, which is a lot of

of storms and that wreaked a lot of devastation and killed a lot of people there. Besides those sort of big storms, we had a number of heat waves, which is just something that is incredibly connected to climate change and is one of the easiest weather events to see the imprint of climate change and is something we just see

more of every year. They last longer, they are hotter, and they happen more frequently than they have in the past. One of the notable ones this year was in the southwest U.S. Dangerous heat wave is threatening more than 30 million people across the southwest this morning. Which has sort of been a focal point for these year after year.

But Phoenix in particular had 113 consecutive days with high temperatures of 100 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. The previous record was 76 days in 1993. So that is a substantial increase on that.

So that heat caused hundreds of deaths just in Phoenix alone. So when you consider that those heat waves were over a broader area, you know, you're looking at much higher numbers. Of course, that wasn't the only place that saw heat. There were also really terrible spring heat waves across a large swath of Asia from the Palestinian territories to India, Thailand and the Philippines. There were also huge floods.

In Spain, where crews are searching for bodies in abandoned cars and swamped buildings after devastating flash floods. Spain was one of the sort of hallmark events this year because it was, I think, very surprising to people there. They weren't...

expecting it that caused a huge amount of devastation and death. There were also really major floods in parts of Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and all of these also have some fingerprints of climate change on them. Probably the biggest climate story this year is that it's going to be the hottest year on record, which we know before it's even technically over. We really knew this, honestly, at the end of October, just based on how hot all of the months of the year so far had been.

And it's going to surpass the record just set last year, which itself was record hot by a record margin. So 2024 is even hotter than 2023. And that is also one of the hallmarks of climate change, that we see record hot years coming.

increasingly happen. In fact, all of the hottest 10 years on record have been in the 21st century. And it's probably not going to be long before the 2024 record falls. You know, if I could pick just a couple words or phrases to describe 2024, it would be record hot and extreme. And I feel like those are probably the words I would have picked in a lot of other years, too. But it's just that fact is a sign that climate change is here and

And it's happening now. It's not a future problem, as I think we thought about it as, you know, a couple of decades ago. We're living it right now. And every year really bears that out. And, you know, looking ahead to 2025, we obviously can't know if 2025 might be the year that breaks 2024 record. I think right now climate scientists would probably say it's not as likely, but

in part because we're expecting a weak La Nina. So most people have heard of El Nino. La Nina is the opposite, sort of the flip side of an El Nino. An El Nino happens when...

Water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are higher than normal. And that releases heat into the atmosphere that causes this cascade of changes in weather around the globe. So La Nina is the opposite. It's when those temperatures are colder than normal. That also changes weather patterns. It also tends to slightly cool global temperatures, whereas La Nina slightly raises them.

And part of why 2023 and 2024 were record hot is a little bit due to La Nina, although the vast majority of that heat is from long-term climate change. But with a weak La Nina likely developing in 2025, global temperatures might be a little bit lower. So it's possible 2025 will come in under 2024 and 2023. But it's still, even with La Nina, going to be among the hottest years on record, almost certainly.

Years where we see La Niñas now are actually hotter than some El Niño years from 30 or 40 years ago. And that is really a mark of how much climate change has impacted global temperatures. You know, in terms of weather that we might see, sort of in broad seasonal trends, we are going to see heat waves somewhere. They are going to break records. There are going to be hurricanes and typhoons around the world, rattle hits.

How strong they'll be, we can't know. There are going to be floods in places. These things are going to keep happening every year. And climate change is having an impact on all of them to increase their likelihood, to make them worse, and to make them happen more often.

Climate was obviously a major theme in the news this year, but we also had a lot of health stories to tackle, including a few that aren't even existentially distressing. Let's look back on some awesome health advances from 2024. I'm Tanya Lewis, a senior editor for health and medicine at Scientific American. So we actually learned a lot of really cool things about the human body this year.

One thing we learned, which you might remember from an earlier podcast episode, is that scientists discovered a new pain medication that works by blocking nerve channels before the pain reaches the brain. And it's not addictive like opioids. Another thing we learned is that vitamin D deficiency is not as big of a problem as we thought. Early in the 2000s, studies suggested that vitamin D deficiency was a contributor to cancer, heart disease, and many other illnesses.

and that taking vitamin D supplements might help. But more recent studies have failed to show as much of a benefit as we thought, and most people actually have adequate levels of vitamin D. Researchers have also discovered ancient brains that are miraculously well-preserved for thousands of years after death.

And they think that these brains might be undergoing a process of protein misfolding, which resembles what happens in neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer's or even mad cow disease. Finally, there is a new advancement that can help people who are born without a uterus. Scientists have found a way to actually transplant uteruses from a healthy donor into these individuals, who can then get pregnant and give birth to a live baby.

If I could describe 2024 in three words, I think I would choose unexpected because we are constantly seeing and learning new things about the body and about new diseases that we didn't expect. I would say political because unfortunately health, like all aspects of science, have become politicized.

And then finally, not to leave on a downer, but I would say ominous because there are unfortunately some major public health threats looming like the potential of a bird flu pandemic. In 2025, I will be keeping a close eye on bird flu or H5N1, the virus that's been transmitting

transmitting among wild birds and dairy cows and poultry in the U.S. I'll be following what's happening with the politicization of science under the new administration, a new presidential administration, and hope to see, you know, areas of consensus, hopefully, between the different parties so that we can keep Americans healthy. While there are many public health threats that loom on the horizon,

There's still a lot to look forward to, and we're just beginning to see some of the fruits of decades of research in things like mRNA vaccines and weight loss drugs and many other developments. I think we're in a pretty good position to tackle some of these major public health threats that we might be facing in the coming year. I don't know about you, but I'm grateful for that spot of optimism.

And also, let me take this opportunity to sneak in my favorite health reminder just one last time this year. Now is not the time to start exploring the world of raw dairy, no matter what people on TikTok might tell you. Just hit pause on that one at the very least.

Speaking of the internet, here's Associate Technology Editor Ben Guarino to tell us how the artificial intelligence conversation evolved in 2024. The focus of 2024 in AI has definitely been on generative AI because the biggest developments this year were often in the new forms of what it could make. When ChatGPT was unveiled in 2022, we saw it make text.

But now generative AI is making really convincing audio. I watched a demo of chat GPT-based voice where the user asked it to count to 30 really fast and then it paused to catch its breath in the middle of counting. So the folks who are developing AI

these generative systems are really looking to how do they sound human and how do they feel authentic. So there have definitely been improvements to audio. Generative AI has now been moving into things like video with OpenAI's really impressive video maker, Sora, which it showcased as a demo earlier this year and then at the start of December released to its paying customers. I tried to log in right away to use it, but

the traffic was so heavy I couldn't get in. So there's definitely an interest in using generative AI to make video. With that also has started to come some backlash. So I'm thinking of in November, Coca-Cola turned some of its iconic ads

into video using generative AI and people piled online. So there's definitely been on the one hand, if we're looking at the big trends in generative AI, an improvement in what it can do. But also I would think an awareness, maybe a more pronounced backlash this year than we've seen in previous years, understanding how

how generative AI was trained on data, on what artists made, on what writers have written, and also maybe some concerns about it taking work away from people. Pew Research has done surveys each year going back for the past few years

looking at how people are excited about AI or concerned about AI. And over the past three years, an increasing proportion have said that they're more concerned than excited about AI. And I think that might be a trend we will see continue into next year. One major area that AI had an impact in 2024 is definitely search. So at the start of this year, Google didn't have AI answers in its search results. To me, that's almost wild to think about. I've gotten

So used to seeing them already, you know, if anybody is a regular user of Google search, I have to imagine that you've seen the generative AI results at the top and these are going to stick around. Google's latest numbers, I think, were that one billion people have used Google's large

large language model, which is called Gemini in search. And talking to the New York Times recently, Google CEO Sundar Pichai said that, you know, to expect Google search to continue to evolve in 2025. And I have to imagine that's going to be more layering of artificial intelligence into search results. And there's also

also been an awareness too of the energy demands of generative AI. And there are some estimates, although the figures aren't exact, that adding generative AI to search results is increasing, not insubstantially, the energy demands on every time that you search something on Google. If I could describe 2024 in three words, I would say boom. We're definitely in an AI boom. I think this really was the year that

that AI started showing up on our phones, started showing up on our computers, started showing up in our workplaces.

in more obvious ways than maybe we had been familiar with before. There have been huge investments in AI and continued investments in generative AI. We saw OpenAI make plans to move from a nonprofit to a profit. We saw Elon Musk break up with OpenAI and

roll out his competitor Grok on ex-formerly Twitter. The next word I would pick, I think, as a consequence of that boom is slop. Slop was a contender for Oxford's word of the year. It lost out to brain rot. But slop means this AI equivalent of spam. So if you...

We're on Facebook at all earlier this year. Maybe you encountered something like shrimp Jesus, which was this phenomenon where people were using chat bots to make these bizarre chimeras of religious figures and crustaceans or these clearly AI made things.

images of structures built out of Coca-Cola bottles, and it really was just engagement bait. I'll take a slightly more optimistic note with the third word, and I'll say promise.

I mean, we saw some clever and what I would consider good uses of AI in terms of pattern recognition, of using AI to help decipher a scroll that was burned by the Pompeii volcano from hundreds and hundreds of years ago.

to AI helping in drug development for looking for novel forms of antibiotics. So there definitely is something here to AI. I don't want to be too cynical here. I think it's good to be critical, but this definitely is a technology that has promise.

In 2025, I think we're going to see more about the hunger for water and energy and resources that generative AI needs, especially for the large data centers required to operate it. We know that Microsoft is

is looking at reviving, for instance, one of the mothballed reactors at Three Mild Island, the nuclear power plant, to power its data centers. There's been more attention paid to what's called data center alley in the mid-Atlantic in terms of keeping these data centers active that requires fossil fuel plants. I also think we're going to start to see more forms of

generative AI, so that's AI based on LLM type style models that aren't quite like the chatbots we're familiar with. I'm thinking specifically as an example, what are called AI agents. So these are

are systems that you would access on your phone or computer like you would a chat bot, but it's got more autonomy to do things. So one common example of what an AI agent might do is help book you a plane ticket and you might tell it or it might know because it's been analyzing your personal data that you prefer aisle seats. So it will look for aisle seats for you and book an aisle seat. And these

in theory, have more autonomy to interact with other apps and they don't require the hand-holding or the prompting that something like ChatGPT needs now. So if you've...

You've used chat GPT with any regular. You might know that it might take multiple prompts to get it to produce the thing that you're looking for with the idea behind an AI agent is that you tell it what to do and it goes off and it interfaces with other apps and you don't need to keep nudging it along. I'm glad we ended on AI because it gives me an excuse to plug some more science quickly before we sign off.

One of my favorite SQ episodes so far is also one of our most recent. It's our deep dive on Google's AI podcast tool. If you haven't listened yet, you should definitely go check it out while we're off for the holidays. I also really loved our episode on folk music and the evolution of song. I'm not going to say that that'll definitely be the only time you'll ever hear me sing on Science Quickly, but...

That's not exactly going to be a regular thing, so you should go check that one out. And I can't forget the episode where I got to interview an astronaut from actual space. In fact, we made history by conducting the first ever live video interview from the Cupola Observatory.

That's definitely the best background I've ever gotten to enjoy on a video call. We also covered the science of fear, the fight to end implicit bias in healthcare, and the dangers of weight stigma at the doctor's office. We did deep dives on extreme archaeology, Antarctic exploration, and the beauty and mystery of math.

From learning about animal conservation to tackling zombie apocalypse prep, we've done our best to help you stay curious. And we're looking forward to a whole lot more of that in 2025. We're taking a few weeks off from new episodes, so our team has time to enjoy the holidays. But we'll be back bright and early in the new year. Science Quickly is produced by me, Rachel Feltman, along with Vandam Wongi, Kelso Harper, Madison Goldberg, and Jeff Talvisio.

Today's episode was reported and co-hosted by Andrea Thompson, Tanya Lewis, and Ben Guarino. Shana Poses and Aaron Shattuck fact-check our show. Our theme music was composed by Dominic Smith. Subscribe to Scientific American for more up-to-date and in-depth science news. For Scientific American, this is Rachel Feltman wishing you a wonderful holiday season. We'll see you next year.